Despite high pressure being in general control at the surface, a shortwave was moving into western KY during the morning hours, and would provide the energy needed, in an already very moist atmosphere, to trigger showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Portions of eastern Kentucky had already been hit by heavy rains in the days leading up, so it wasn't going to take much to lead to some…
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Despite high pressure being in general control at the surface, a shortwave was moving into western KY during the morning hours, and would provide the energy needed, in an already very moist atmosphere, to trigger showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Portions of eastern Kentucky had already been hit by heavy rains in the days leading up, so it wasn't going to take much to lead to some possible flash flood issues. Ultimately 3 flash flood warnings were issued, two in the 10am hour and one in the early afternoon. Of these warnings, the one that encompassed Wolfe County ended up being the only one that received reports. The community of Bethany was especially hard hit by both heavy rainfall amounts and flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 19, 6:31 AM EST, 3 hours 37 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 731 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 720 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2021 Only minor changes to the near term grids. Some heavy rain falling across far eastern KY over the past hour, with obs showing generally 0.5-1.0 inches in an hour. This area has already been soaked by previous rainfall over the past couple of days so will need to be watched closely later today if additional storms pass over the area. Some low stratus and fog is also over much of the area, with visibility dropping to under a half mile in spots. Only expect gradual improvement in ceilings this morning. Updates sent to NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 335 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2021 Showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed early this morning ahead of a shortwave that is currently over western KY. This shortwave will cross the area this morning, while the main trough won't cross the area until late tonight into early Friday. This all results in a wet and unsettled day across eastern KY, with periods of showers and thunderstorms expected. Forecast soundings shows deep moisture with PWAT values around 2 inches. With multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected throughout the day, and the wet antecedent conditions, flooding will be a concern especially if multiple storms move over the same areas. Pops decrease late this evening and overnight as the trough axis moves east of the area, but chance Pops will remain through the night over SE KY. Went a touch cooler than the blend for high temps this afternoon with the expected rain and cloud cover. High temps should generally be in the upper 70s. Low stratus and fog is expected overnight, with low temps in the middle 60s. The upper level trough becomes a closed low and settles to our east on Friday. With this feature nearby, expect additional showers and thunderstorms especially during the afternoon and early evening, with the highest Pops across the far S/SE, and the lowest Pops along and north of I-64. Warmer temps expected with afternoon high temps in the lower 80s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 418 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2021 It looks to be an active extended period, with only a few dry periods. The first of these will occur Friday night into Saturday morning, as a strong upper level low slowly exits the state to the northeast, and a brief area of high pressure takes hold at the surface. However, pops are then expected to ramp up during the day Saturday, especially to our west, as southerly flow takes hold and a cold front approaches from our west. Models are all over the place in their solutions, especially as it pertains to extent and impacts of precip across the region. Chose the stick with the NBM for pops/weather as a result. The front to our west is forecast by the GFS to stall and then pivot more west to east oriented across the Ohio Valley during the day Sunday, but north of the Commonwealth. This boundary will remain in place to our north through Tuesday, with high pressure across the state and an upper level ridge building in from the southwest. However, being in the warm sector (south side of frontal boundary) will allow for warm/moist southerly flow into the state, and the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the peak heating of the day, ceasing overnight. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s, with elevated humidity values. By Wednesday, an upper level low and surface occluded low passing across south-central Canada will be enough to push the stalled front eastward. It will also drag a cold front towards the state, with WPC having it traversing the state by Thursday. Obviously, there is quite a bit of disagreement in this frontal track between the models this far out in the forecast, with the GFS showing more numerous shower/thunderstorm activity across the state Wednesday afternoon and night. The ECMWF, on the other hand, shows peak coverage during the afternoon, the dissipating completely after dark. Given the uncertainty, just stuck with the NBM, which has isolated to scattered pops across the CWA Wednesday afternoon and evening, followed by a lull, before more scattered pops move in for Thursday along the frontal boundary (assuming time remains the same). Wednesday will also likely be our hottest day, as southerly flow increases ahead of this approaching system. The current forecast has highs in the mid to upper 80s, again with high humidity and heat indices ranging from the low to upper 90s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2021 Poor flying conditions at area terminals this morning with MVFR/IFR ceilings, and visbys under 1/2SM at times. In addition, scattered showers/storms are already impacting the area as a shortwave crosses the area. There will be some improvement in visbys this morning although ceilings will likely stay below VFR through much of the day. More numerous showers/storms are expected this afternoon into this evening which will add complications to flight restrictions. While precip chances diminish overnight, low stratus and fog is expected to settle in again overnight into Friday morning. Winds are light and variable this morning becoming W/SW this afternoon around 5 kts or less. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...CMF SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...CMF
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 343 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-201045- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 343 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible today and tonight, peaking during the afternoon and early evening hours. Some of these showers and storms could result in locally heavy rainfall, and may lead to some isolated flash flooding concerns, especially given the already saturated ground. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Thunderstorms are possible at times through the period. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are requested to report any instances of flooding or flash flooding today and tonight. CMF/JMW
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 16 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:08 UTC.
4 flash flood, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple pictures and reports of flash flooding were posted on social media from along Hwy-15 in the Bethany area. Water had surrounded and entered in numerous homes and businesses in the area.
Flash flooding impacted the community of Bethany, including Bethany Christian School. Multiple social media reports with pictures came in of flood waters inside of the school.
A picture was posted on social media showing flooding on Spring Branch Road near the Bethany community.
Pictures and video on social media showed Stillwater Creek flash flooding around at least one barn and home between Malaga and Landsaw.
A social media post showed Baptist Church road flooded where it passes under the Mountain Parkway near the town of Campton.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, August 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 981706, 981705, 981707, 981709, 981708.