Typical summer afternoon thunderstorms affected southwest Virginia, but a few strengthened and produced damaging wind gusts that blew down trees.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MRX wrote it up.
Typical summer afternoon thunderstorms affected southwest Virginia, but a few strengthened and produced damaging wind gusts that blew down trees.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 14, 6:21 PM EST, 1 hour 54 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Morristown TN 721 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 .UPDATE... FOR 00Z AVIATION. && .SHORT TERM... Key Messages: 1. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/evening, and again on Sunday. 2. Low, but non-zero, chance for damaging winds or localized flooding concerns. Discussion: Remainder of this afternoon: Convection has been pretty sparse thus far. SPC mesoanalysis page has sfc based and MLCAPE values maximized in middle TN up into the northern plateau which is where the strongest storms are right now. Further east in the TN valley and across the mountains, CAPE is less, but DCAPE values were in the 1,000 - 1,2000 J/kg range at 2pm. Any storms that develop in these areas will need to be monitored for the potential of some damaging winds as cores collapse. This should be an isolated threat however as storms shouldn't be widespread nor terribly strong to begin with. Storm motions aren't much at all so any storms that linger over an area for an extended amount of time will present a localized threat of flash flooding as well. This would most likely be in the northern plateau areas where greater instability will support stronger and more prolonged updrafts. Tonight into Sunday: Longwave, low-amplitude upper troughing was in place across the Great Lakes region this afternoon, with embedded shortwave energy lifting northeast towards Maine through late tonight. Surface high pressure over Iowa and southern Wisconsin this afternoon, will follow in the footsteps of this shortwave, sliding east across Michigan and western New York through the overnight hours. The implications of this are that a weak front, still located to our north this afternoon, is not likely to make significant headway south since surface high pressure isn't really building in behind but rather just shifting east. As such, do not have much of any relief in dewpoints or temperatures in the forecast for tonight or Sunday. Believe that tomorrow will be similar to today with respect to afternoon highs and probably just as muggy. Having said that, there is one notable difference for tomorrow I believe. The departing Maine shortwave knocks the heights down a bit on the Bermuda high off the coast of the Carolinas while a western ridge over Nevada retrogrades towards the western seaboard a bit. This allows a weak trough/height falls to develop over the mid and lower Mississippi river valley on Sunday, extending east into middle and eastern TN as well. Meanwhile moist southwest low level flow continues into the region. All indications are that this will be enough to allow for more widespread convection to develop across the forecast area on Sunday. Wouldn't say confidence is extremely high as guidance told a similar story for Friday and then again for today, neither of which (at least so far today) have been home runs. Still think typical summertime diurnal trends will win out initially, which showers and thunderstorms developing over the mountains and plateau areas by midday or early afternoon at the latest, but with height falls aloft coverage in the lower elevations should be higher. Stuck close to NBM guidance for temps tomorrow, which was roughly the middle of temp guidance. GFS and HiRESFV3 are both a touch warmer, with many places in the low 90s, which could be accurate if convective trends don't pan out as forecast. CD .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)... Key Messages: 1. High rain chances in a very moist environment Monday through at least Tuesday and possibly Wednesday, with some potential for heavy rain and flooding as the remnants of Fred approach and then move through the eastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. 2. A more typical summer pattern of afternoon showers and thunderstorms with near normal temperatures Thursday through Saturday. Sunday night and Monday the forecast area becomes more influenced by upper trough to the west with upper ridging along southeast coast retreating some. Also a surface inverted trough to the west remains mainly west of the area. This should keep the main precip axis along the western part of the area or plateau and points west in middle TN. Heavy rainfall could affect this area as Precipitable water values are high...up to 2 inches. Fred's track continues to change slowly with it moving into AL early Tuesday. The GFS model wants to quickly dissipate it over the southeast states Tuesday after it moves inland. The ECMWF keeps a compact system over AL Tuesday and shifts the heavy precipitation northeast into the eastern Tennessee Valley and especially eastern mountains Tuesday and Wednesday, then lingering over the mountains Wednesday night early Thursday. Canadian Model is faster with system bringing the significant moisture and rainfall northeast from southern AL late Monday night into early Wednesday toward Georgia and Carolinas but affecting mostly the eastern part of the forecast area. Think this might be the best solution with moderate to heavy rainfall across much of the southeast and eastern sections, especially SW NC and the eastern Tennessee mountains. Rain chances will be high over the entire area Tuesday and Tuesday night. From about Wednesday night through Saturday some models rebuild the ridge over the Southeast states once again with moisture levels still high. Other model guidance keeps area in the upper trough. Will keep scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms with highs close to normal values. TD && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. Scattered thunderstorms continue this evening but should decrease in coverage after 03-04z. Fog will be possible at any sites that receive measurable rainfall this evening, but with all sites remaining dry as of this forecast issuance, will hold off on adding any fog to the forecast. Additional widespread scattered thunderstorms are forecast late in the period on Sunday afternoon and evening. JB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021/ SHORT TERM... Key Messages: 1. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/evening, and again on Sunday. 2. Low, but non-zero, chance for damaging winds or localized flooding concerns. Discussion: Remainder of this afternoon: Convection has been pretty sparse thus far. SPC mesoanalysis page has sfc based and MLCAPE values maximized in middle TN up into the northern plateau which is where the strongest storms are right now. Further east in the TN valley and across the mountains, CAPE is less, but DCAPE values were in the 1,000 - 1,2000 J/kg range at 2pm. Any storms that develop in these areas will need to be monitored for the potential of some damaging winds as cores collapse. This should be an isolated threat however as storms shouldn't be widespread nor terribly strong to begin with. Storm motions aren't much at all so any storms that linger over an area for an extended amount of time will present a localized threat of flash flooding as well. This would most likely be in the northern plateau areas where greater instability will support stronger and more prolonged updrafts. Tonight into Sunday: Longwave, low-amplitude upper troughing was in place across the Great Lakes region this afternoon, with embedded shortwave energy lifting northeast towards Maine through late tonight. Surface high pressure over Iowa and southern Wisconsin this afternoon, will follow in the footsteps of this shortwave, sliding east across Michigan and western New York through the overnight hours. The implications of this are that a weak front, still located to our north this afternoon, is not likely to make significant headway south since surface high pressure isn't really building in behind but rather just shifting east. As such, do not have much of any relief in dewpoints or temperatures in the forecast for tonight or Sunday. Believe that tomorrow will be similar to today with respect to afternoon highs and probably just as muggy. Having said that, there is one notable difference for tomorrow I believe. The departing Maine shortwave knocks the heights down a bit on the Bermuda high off the coast of the Carolinas while a western ridge over Nevada retrogrades towards the western seaboard a bit. This allows a weak trough/height falls to develop over the mid and lower Mississippi river valley on Sunday, extending east into middle and eastern TN as well. Meanwhile moist southwest low level flow continues into the region. All indications are that this will be enough to allow for more widespread convection to develop across the forecast area on Sunday. Wouldn't say confidence is extremely high as guidance told a similar story for Friday and then again for today, neither of which (at least so far today) have been home runs. Still think typical summertime diurnal trends will win out initially, which showers and thunderstorms developing over the mountains and plateau areas by midday or early afternoon at the latest, but with height falls aloft coverage in the lower elevations should be higher. Stuck close to NBM guidance for temps tomorrow, which was roughly the middle of temp guidance. GFS and HiRESFV3 are both a touch warmer, with many places in the low 90s, which could be accurate if convective trends don't pan out as forecast. CD LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)... Key Messages: 1. High rain chances in a very moist environment Monday through at least Tuesday and possibly Wednesday, with some potential for heavy rain and flooding as the remnants of Fred approach and then move through the eastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. 2. A more typical summer pattern of afternoon showers and thunderstorms with near normal temperatures Thursday through Saturday. Sunday night and Monday the forecast area becomes more influenced by upper trough to the west with upper ridging along southeast coast retreating some. Also a surface inverted trough to the west remains mainly west of the area. This should keep the main precip axis along the western part of the area or plateau and points west in middle TN. Heavy rainfall could affect this area as Precipitable water values are high...up to 2 inches. Fred's track continues to change slowly with it moving into AL early Tuesday. The GFS model wants to quickly dissipate it over the southeast states Tuesday after it moves inland. The ECMWF keeps a compact system over AL Tuesday and shifts the heavy precipitation northeast into the eastern Tennessee Valley and especially eastern mountains Tuesday and Wednesday, then lingering over the mountains Wednesday night early Thursday. Canadian Model is faster with system bringing the significant moisture and rainfall northeast from southern AL late Monday night into early Wednesday toward Georgia and Carolinas but affecting mostly the eastern part of the forecast area. Think this might be the best solution with moderate to heavy rainfall across much of the southeast and eastern sections, especially SW NC and the eastern Tennessee mountains. Rain chances will be high over the entire area Tuesday and Tuesday night. From about Wednesday night through Saturday some models rebuild the ridge over the Southeast states once again with moisture levels still high. Other model guidance keeps area in the upper trough. Will keep scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms with highs close to normal values. TD && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 88 72 85 71 / 50 70 70 70 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 89 70 85 69 / 50 70 50 70 40 Oak Ridge, TN 70 88 71 84 69 / 50 70 50 70 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 86 68 83 67 / 40 60 40 70 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 320 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-006-008-151930- Cherokee-Clay-Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan- Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke- Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene- Washington-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon- Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains- North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs- McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley- West Polk-East Polk-Lee-Wise-Russell- 320 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 /220 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening. Chances for severe weather are low overall, but there is a chance a couple of storms could produce some damaging winds or localized heavy rains. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Showers and thunderstorms are likely through Thursday. The main impact of these storms is expected to be heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding. Some storms may also produce strong wind gusts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not needed at this time. CD/TD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
841 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0837 PM HAIL 3 SE LAKE FOREST 35.90N 83.83W
08/14/2021 E0.75 INCH KNOX TN TRAINED SPOTTER
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
844 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0750 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NE MOUNT CARMEL 36.59N 82.61W
08/14/2021 HAWKINS TN TRAINED SPOTTER
TREES DOWN ALONG CARTERS VALLEY RD. TIME
ESTIMATED BY RADAR.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
851 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0845 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N LAKE FOREST 35.94N 83.87W
08/14/2021 KNOX TN 911 CALL CENTER
TREES BLOCKING ROAD AT MCNUTT RD AND
SEVIERVILLE PIKE.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
852 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0851 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W LAKE FOREST 35.93N 83.90W
08/14/2021 KNOX TN 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN BLOCKING BOTH LANES AT CHAPMAN HWY
AND FRONDA LN.
&&Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
912 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021
TNZ069-150200-
Knox TN-
912 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Knox
County through 1000 PM EDT...
At 912 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Knoxville, moving northwest at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Knoxville, Halls and Maloneyville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3617 8392 3617 8391 3616 8391 3617 8390
3617 8388 3605 8379 3603 8392 3611 8403
3612 8403 3614 8401 3619 8394
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 149DEG 7KT 3609 8394
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
GaruckasPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
915 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0907 PM TSTM WND DMG LAKE FOREST 35.93N 83.87W
08/14/2021 KNOX TN 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROAD AT SEVIERVILLE PIKE
AND LINDY DR.
&&The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 92 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:16 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Five trees were blown down between Clinchport and the Fort Blackmore area.
A few trees were blown down around Dryden.
A few trees were blown down between Rose Hill and Ewing.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, August 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 970814, 970815, 970816.