A strengthening upper level low pressure system was over Arizona and New Mexico with attached upper disturbances that moved over West Texas. High low-level moisture values were across the area.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A strengthening upper level low pressure system was over Arizona and New Mexico with attached upper disturbances that moved over West Texas. High low-level moisture values were across the area. A cold front was pushing through the region, and there was a dryline across the Lower Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. Daytime heating allowed for the atmosphere to become unstable. These conditions resulted in thunderstorms that produced strong, damaging winds and hail across West Texas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 30, 5:06 AM CST, 4 hours 49 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 606 AM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 555 AM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021 VFR will prevail at most terminals through about 30/18z. Showers and some isolated storms may affect KCNM over the next few hours. A cold front now moving through KLBB will push south into the area through the morning first affecting KHOB and KCNM. The front will make it to the I-20 corridor just after 30/18z. Winds will shift to the north behind the front and could gust to near 20 kts. Sct to Num TS anticipated after 18z with development likely anywhere within West TX and SE NM. All terminals could be impacted, but timing is still uncertain and depends on this mornings convection. Have included tempos for storms where confidence is highest. Look for gusty outflow winds and lightning in and near these storms. Low cigs will be possible toward the end of this period Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021 ...Busy day ahead with severe weather and heavy rainfall possible... An upper low is currently deepening to our west over portions of AZ and NM. Low level moisture continues to increase this morning as dewpoints are now back into the 60's across much of the area. We are even seeing a few showers and thunderstorms along and west of the Pecos River. Models are struggling with the current activity which gives us a little less confidence going into the rest of today. Even with this morning's activity we should see plenty of sun and heating by afternoon. We have seen some changes in the latest models that would indicate a better chance of severe weather today. Previous model runs showed a prefrontal trough pushing through the region bringing drier air in from the west. Now it appears height falls will be stronger and southeast winds will remain in place into this afternoon. This will sustain a moist airmass and with daytime heating allow for a more unstable environment. Concurrently, a cold front, now in the TX Panhandle, will slow and move into the area later this morning playing a role in afternoon convection. Around or just after noon, thunderstorms are expected to develop first across the higher terrain of SE NM and W TX and expand in coverage as they shift east. Shortly thereafter storms are likely to form along the cold front which should be somewhere in the Permian Basin by early afternoon. MLCAPE values in excess of 2500 J/kg and steep mid level lapse rates will allow for a large hail threat. As storms evolve into one or more clusters over the Permian Basin, a damaging wind threat will develop and shift east through the evening. SPC has upgraded much of the area to a slight risk for this afternoon. In addition to the severe threat, heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be a concern. Precipitable water (PWAT) values will increase to 1.25" to 1.50" across much of the region. Storms should be on the move, but any back-building could pose a flooding threat, especially if training occurs near the cold front. One to two inches of rain are possible almost anywhere, but most locations will see less. While we have been dry this month, it won't take much to cause localized flooding, especially in urban areas. The upper trough will begin to lift into the Plains Friday with plenty of lift remaining over our area. With a cool airmass in place and the cold front nearby, expect showers and a few storms throughout the day. Highs will be much cooler with most locations topping out in the 70's. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021 Friday evening into Friday night, the closed low responsible for the active pattern will translate quickly northeastward across the northern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, SE Colorado, and into SW Kansas by Saturday morning. As the low begins to depart, flow aloft will transition to quasizonal over Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, resulting in a rapid decrease in moisture over the area. As the trough axis sweeps across the region, rain and storm chances will quickly diminish from west to east, and while precipitation will linger into Saturday morning, especially over eastern areas, models have come into better agreement with most of the region being dry by the afternoon. High temperatures Saturday will rebound after the unseasonably cool Friday, though will remain a bit below normal in the upper 70s to middle 80s for most, with lower 90s through the Rio Grande Valley. Thereafter, the extended remains fairly dry, with ridging progged to build over the region early next week in response to a deepening trough over the eastern CONUS, and another trough taking shape over the West Coast. Both the GFS and ECMWF develop a large cutoff low over the Central Gulf Coast midweek, though its influence is not currently expected to be felt across our region, where subsidence is the more likely scenario. The aforementioned trough across the western CONUS is progged to move over the ridge, with the ridge elongating SW-NE beneath this trough and the closed low to the east. Locally, this will maintain ridging near or just west of the region through next week, yielding continued temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s for most, with lower dewpoints allowing for cooler overnight lows in the 50s and lower 60s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 87 62 77 61 / 70 70 70 60 Carlsbad 79 57 75 55 / 70 60 40 20 Dryden 90 65 79 66 / 60 80 70 60 Fort Stockton 86 61 76 60 / 70 70 60 40 Guadalupe Pass 70 53 68 54 / 70 60 30 10 Hobbs 82 57 73 54 / 70 60 60 30 Marfa 78 52 74 51 / 70 60 40 20 Midland Intl Airport 86 61 75 60 / 70 70 70 50 Odessa 86 62 75 61 / 70 70 70 50 Wink 86 61 77 59 / 70 60 60 30 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....84 AVIATION...29
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 323 AM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082- 270>282-010830- Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains- Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines- Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler- Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County- Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains- Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin- Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County- 323 AM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021 /223 AM MDT Thu Sep 30 2021/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms are expected across the region today and tonight, with strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening, especially across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos south to the Rio Grande. Large hail, damaging winds, and frequent lightning will be possible. Heavy rainfall is also expected, which could lead to localized flooding and flash flooding concerns. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Heavy rainfall may result in flash flooding through Friday, especially across portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in Midland, can be found on the internet at... https://weather.gov/midland
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1017 AM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021
TXZ045-050-301600-
Andrews TX-Gaines TX-
1017 AM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Andrews and southwestern Gaines Counties through 1100 AM CDT...
At 1016 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles southwest of Gaines County Airport, or 18 miles southwest of
Seminole, moving northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Andrews, Seminole, Gaines County Airport, Florey, Frankel City and
Andrews County Airport.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3235 10282 3265 10301 3278 10261 3228 10243
TIME...MOT...LOC 1516Z 238DEG 13KT 3249 10281
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
91Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1033 AM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021
TXZ050-061-301615-
Andrews TX-Ector TX-
1033 AM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Ector,
central Andrews and northeastern Winkler Counties through 1115 AM
CDT...
At 1033 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Goldsmith, or 16 miles southwest of Andrews, moving
north at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Andrews and Andrews County Airport.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3238 10235 3200 10260 3206 10280 3209 10280
3209 10285 3247 10273
TIME...MOT...LOC 1533Z 199DEG 21KT 3211 10267
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
91The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 52 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:55 UTC.
6 hail, 4 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A thunderstorm moved across Andrews County and produced a 62 mph wind gust near the town of Andrews.
A thunderstorm moved across Scurry County and produced wind damage. There were downed power lines and tree limbs. The cost of damage is a very rough estimate.
A thunderstorm produced quarter sized hail ten miles southwest of McDonald Observatory. There was lots of quarter sized hail covering the ground at Bloys Camp.
A thunderstorm produced a 61 mph wind gust near Snyder.
A thunderstorm moved across Terrell County and produced a 71 mph wind gust in Dryden.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, September 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 979816, 979819, 980374, 980381, 980383, 980387, 980390, 980399, 980405, 980401.