A closed low located over northwestern New Mexico provided large scale lift to the region during the day on the 27th. After mostly light rain shower activity in the morning and early afternoon, skies cleared across the southwestern South Plains which allowed ample instability to develop.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
A closed low located over northwestern New Mexico provided large scale lift to the region during the day on the 27th. After mostly light rain shower activity in the morning and early afternoon, skies cleared across the southwestern South Plains which allowed ample instability to develop. Thunderstorms erupted within this area of instability that had developed and moved eastward through the late afternoon and evening hours. Inverted-V soundings allowed these storms to produce several severe wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 27, 5:23 PM CST, 31 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 623 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 .AVIATION... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may affect KPVW and KLBB early in the TAF period. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. SSE winds expected to veer toward SSW, increasing some by early afternoon Tuesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021/ SHORT TERM... A closed low across NWRN NM will slowly drift northeastward, slowly weakening with time, becoming an open trough across the central plains Tuesday night. Another trough axis will move into the Great Basin/ desert southwest on Tuesday. An initial wave of mostly light rainshower activity has made it through the southwestern two-thirds of the CWFA by 2pm. Within this line, an enhanced area of thunderstorms has moved along and near the I-27 corridor. Skies have begun to scatter/clear across the southwestern South Plains and this is our main area for which we are monitoring for additional convection. With an increase in surface heating, mid-level moisture should be able to tap into modest instability aloft. In general, this looks capable of producing scattered thunderstorms. Some of these could become strong as CAPE values of 500-750 J/kg invigorate updrafts and inverted V soundings prevail under 5000' AGL. Hail threat looks quite minimal though wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible near the stronger storms. Effective shear is perhaps 15 knots and as such, organized convection will be hard to materialize. Thunderstorm activity should quickly wane with the loss of daytime heating leading to a quiet overnight period. On Tuesday, as the upper low lifts into CO, the dryline is expected to race eastward during the morning becoming positioned across the Rolling Plains by the afternoon. This feature should help initiate thunderstorms once again. The hail threat looks minimal though a higher wind threat (as compared to today) will be possible as inverted V soundings reach nearly 10kft AGL. Effective shear will be similar as seen today suggesting pulse-type activity. LONG TERM... By Wednesday morning a trough will be positioned to the west of the forecast area with a shortwave moving into the trough from the Pacific Northwest. Ahead of this trough surface lee troughing will develop allowing for downsloping westerly winds during the day on Wednesday. This will help to boost temperatures a few degrees with highs in the upper 80's to low 90's. This will also help a dryline to become established and move east. Currently it appears that this feature should be east of the forecast area by peak heating although a few showers and thunderstorms may still be possible across the far eastern areas. As one piece of energy within the trough moves northeastward this will send a cold front into the region on Thursday. Guidance has trended a bit faster with this feature with it now expected to be through the forecast area by late Thursday morning. Therefore have lowered the afternoon temperatures by several degrees across the region. Additionally, this faster timing of the front may push the highest precipitation chances to the south of the forecast area keeping our region drier during the day on Thursday. Thursday and beyond the upper level pattern may still change as we wait to see exactly how the the aforementioned shortwave evolves. The ECMWF and GEFS mean still has this feature closing off into a closed upper level low and allowing for better northward moisture transport Thursday night through Saturday. This would allow for an uptick in precipitation chances area wide during this time period although it will not be raining the entire time period but rather in bouts. Instability values should be on the lower side during this event which should preclude any severe weather however with long skinny CAPE profiles, efficient rainfall would be likely therefore localized flooding may be possible (although the dry antecedent conditions should offset the flooding risk). With the cloudy conditions, afternoon high temperatures will remain on the cool side from Thursday through the end of the forecast period. The upper level low should move east of the forecast area Saturday night bringing an end to precipitation chances late this weekend. /WCI && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 07
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 150 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 TXZ021>044-281900- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 150 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. A few high-based thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening west of the Caprock Escarpment capable of outflow wind gusts to 50 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. High based thunderstorms may form Tuesday afternoon across the Rolling Plains where strong downburst winds are expected to pose the highest threat. Chances for widespread rainfall will increase later in the week along with potential for heavy rain late Thursday into Friday, and perhaps lingering into the weekend. Total rainfall accumulations in excess of 2 inches may be possible for portions of the South Plains region. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 69 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:54 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Amherst measured a severe wind gust to 61 mph.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Amherst measured severe wind gusts from 1853 through 1854 CST. A peak wind gust of 66 mph was measured at 1853 CST.
The automated surface observing system at Lubbock Preston Smith International Airport measured a severe wind gust of 61 mph.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Abernathy measured severe wind gusts from 1958 through 2002 CST. A peak wind gust of 65 mph was measured at 2000 CST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, September 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 977619, 977620, 977622, 977623.