Drought in Texas, September 15 to 30, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1059 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

Kansas storms have been staying north of the border, with any
approaching showers quickly dissipating before crossing.
Meanwhile, convection in southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico
has been thus far underwhelming. Latest HRRR runs concur with this
trend, being much less aggressive in bring storms into our area.
Therefore, have reduced PoPs through the morning hours.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

The cold front in Kansas will shift toward the Oklahoma border this
evening. There are some building cumulus in northwestern
Oklahoma, but most of the development has been elevated and
farther north in Kansas so far.

The timing trends continue to slow the storm timing for our forecast
area. There may be some convection hovering near or just north of
the Oklahoma-Kansas border this evening near the surface front,
but much of this may stay north of the border. Higher chances of
storms will be with storms rolling off the High Plains of Colorado
this evening and moving east-southeast toward northwestern
Oklahoma. The convective-allowing models have differing ideas of
the evolutions of these storms with the HRRR being the most
aggressive in bringing these into northwestern Oklahoma tonight
with the GFS also showing some QPF into the area, but most of the
models dissipate the convection before moving into the area. So
have delayed the precipitation chances in the area and reduced the
POPs somewhat in general with these model trends.

There will be some elevated instability this evening, so there will
be a window in time for some strong or marginally severe storms this
evening, but the potential will decrease in the early morning hours
with decreasing instability.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

The long term should be dry through the remainder of the week and
into the weekend. Mid-level ridging will set in over the Southern
Plains, and warmer temperatures will accompany it. High
temperatures should gradually rise into the mid 90s this weekend.
Early next week, a strong mid-level trough will move across the
Central/High Plains. An attendant cold front will sweep through
Tuesday afternoon and overnight. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible along this cold front as it moves through OK, but
confidence in coverage and timing is low at this time.
Temperatures early next week behind the front could cool down
substantially relative to this weekend's temperatures, where
highs could be in the lower 80s across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

Outflow from the Kansas storms should bring a brief north /
northeasterly wind shift to northern TAF sites. A few isolated
storms may impact northwestern Oklahoma overnight. Otherwise, VFR
conditions and light (somewhat variable) winds should continue
outside of any convection.

Day

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

No Upper Air flights are planned at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  67  88  66 /   0  10  10   0
Hobart OK         91  65  90  65 /   0  10  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  90  65  90  66 /   0  10   0   0
Gage OK           92  64  88  65 /   0  20  10   0
Ponca City OK     92  66  87  66 /  10  20  10   0
Durant OK         88  65  89  66 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1054 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-151000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1054 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Thunderstorms...
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across northern and
western portions of Oklahoma during the overnight hours. Gusty
wind and brief heavy rain will occur with the stronger storms, but
severe weather is unlikely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Thunderstorms...
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible across central
and southeast Oklahoma on Wednesday.

.Heat...
Heat indices are forecast to increase Friday through next Monday.
Values in the 100 to 105 range appear possible.

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