Hurricane and Tropical Storm in Texas, September 13 to 14, 2021

Name: Hurricane and Tropical Storm in Texas, September 13 to 14, 2021
Start: 2021-09-13T15:00
End: 2021-09-14T06:00
Location: Texas

September 13 to 14, 2021 · NWS HGX · 22 events in 16 counties and zones

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 22 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 22

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS HGX wrote it up.

Nicholas formed on September 12 in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, slowly advancing northeastward along the Middle Texas Coast. It eventually made landfall 10 miles west of Sargent just after midnight on September 14, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 75 mph. Heavy rain bands associated with Nicholas brought widespread rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches to the Southeast Texas Coast, while strong wind gusts resulted in tree and structural damage as well as widespread power outages across the area. Additionally, Nicholas's surge resulted in flooding along the coast, particularly around Matagorda Bay.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Houston/Galveston, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 13, 12:08 PM CST, 2 hours 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 13, 12:08 PM CST, 2 hours 52 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
108 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...Excessive rainfall and flood risk across southern parts of
Southeast Texas as Tropical Storm Nicholas makes its way toward
the Matagorda Bay area this evening...

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

As TS Nicholas inches closer to Southeast Texas, conditions will
continue to deteriorate. Lots of uncertainty remains in the
forecast as this system remains fairly disorganized. Expect MVFR
ceilings and visibility dropping to IFR with the heaviest rain
bands as they push through. Coastal and southern sites could see
gusts of 35-45kts, but this may increase if the TS increases in
strength before landfall. Prevailing RA and VCTS for most of the
TAF period, but it appears most activity will be towards the
northeast and out of our area by late tomorrow morning.

KBL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 656 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...
What has changed:
- Center of TS Nicholas reformed about 100 miles to the north
  overnight and is now positioned off the lower Tx coast.
- Landfall expected around the Matagorda Bay area this evening.
- Added Fort Bend and Wharton Co's to Tropical Storm Warning.
- Flash Flood Watch now covers all counties along I-10 southward.
- Moderate risk area for flash flooding expanded north into the FF
  Watch area including Houston metro. High risk introduced at the
  immediate coast.
- Winds/seas adjusted upward today & tonight to account for
  repositioning & faster timing.

TS Nicholas, positioned off the lower Tx coast is expected to make
landfall around the Matagorda Bay area later this evening. Good
news is that it has less time over water for strengthening. That
said, a strong tropical storm is still anticipated by landfall &
can't totally rule out a low end hurricane.

Plume of deep tropical moisture extending on its east side
extends all the way in the Bay of Campeche. This moisture will be
flowing northward toward the Upper Tx coast and provide bands of
rain, heavy at times, across the area today. Wind gusts >30mph
have already been observed with some of this precip and that can
be anticipated throughout the day - esp southern half of the CWA.
Can't totally rule out a rouge tornado either.

Conditions further deteriorate this evening throughout the
overnight hours as Nicholas makes landfall. Winds will increase,
precip becomes more widespread and intensifies, and water levels
climb along the coast.

Nicholas should take a gradual northeast turn after landfall.
Center should be positioned near or just west of the Houston area
early Tuesday. There is some uncertainty in regards to the overall
speed/movement Tues into Wed. Hires guidance and GFS are quite a
bit more progressive (good) than ECMWF/UKMET (not good). Depending
on which ends up occurring, bulk of heavy precip may be mostly
heading e/ne of CWA Tue night...or persist even longer with the
slower solutions...

- Winds:
~65mph closest to the center at landfall. Always plan for a
category stronger storm than fcst (cat 1 in this case). Wind gusts
to tropical storm force a county or two inland.

- Surge/water levels:
2-5 feet...highest Freeport-Matagorda Bay. Unfortunately it
appears that it'll be moving inland as we head into high tide so
some moderate coastal flooding is anticipated beginning as early
as this afternoon and increasing overnight.

- Rainfall/flooding:
No significant changes. Storm totals of 10-20" entirely possible
closer to the coast one gets. High risk of flash flooding/flooding
along the coast. Moderate risk extends to the counties along I-10.
And slight risk north of that to about a Brenham-Livingston line.

- Rivers/bayous:
Will need to monitor southern watersheds. Tres Palacios,
Lavaca/Navidad, San Bernard, Clear Creek, Houston Bayous,
Southern San Jac & Trinity.

- Tornadoes:
Cannot completely rule out a few along the coast. Most favored
location around the ne quadrant of the cyclone.

47

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...
The long term obviously hinges on the speed of TS Nicholas's
movement. Based on the current NHC forecasts for Wednesday Nicholas
circulation/rain should be in the eastern counties early in the
morning moving out of the area with northerly flow pushing well
south across the area and likely ushering in some drier air by late
evening. Rain chances still look good for eastern areas and probably
a good deal lower in the west through the day and into the evening.
Again timing/track here still will dictate impacts so please stay
dialed in on the weather this week. Winds should be relaxing through
the afternoon and temperatures could vary widely from west to east
across the area with highs in the lower 90s possible far west to
lower 80s east...have trended strongly toward a blend of GFS
temperatures and NBM which is a little cooler as this lines up
closer with NHC track and timing than ECMWF.  Wednesday night into
Thursday Nicholas should be in Lousiana and rain chances here drop
significantly though still with the potential for some quick
development Thursday late morning and afternoon with heating. Rain
band likely across the coastal waters feeding into the system over
Louisiana. Rain chances should start to increase over the south
Thursday night into Saturday as pooled tropical moisture spreads
back north into SETX. Nocturnal showers and isolated thunderstorms
and daytime showers and thunderstorms mainly focused south of a
Columbus to Livingston line. May have a heavy rain threat with some
training and slow movement in very moist airmass. Weak upper
troughing lingers over TX from the ARKLATEX southwestward leading to
deep onshore flow into Sunday (sfc-500 and PW 1.5 to 2.3") which
should help keep rain chances higher south to lower north. Upper
ridging building over FL/eastern Gulf should help keep moist flow
going Sunday and Monday though the capping could be on the increase.
Will trend into a more diurnally driven pattern for
convection...near the coast in the mornings and then pushing inland
during the day. Temperatures over the weekend should have a gradient
from northwest to southeast across the region with roughly 90-95
northwest and 86-90 southeast for highs which is getting closer to
climo.

45

.MARINE...
- Sustained 20kt winds & 6ft seas have arrived nearshore. Gusts to
  or above 34kt possible in bands/squalls.
- TS conditions arrive offshore Matagorda this afternoon &
  Galveston this evening.
- Threat of sustained 30kt winds diminished toward mid morning,
  though breezy/rough conditions into Tue night.
- Sustained winds <20kt and seas <6ft nearshore by Wed morning.

47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  71  82  72  86  70 /  60  60  40  40  20
Houston (IAH)          74  81  74  86  72 /  90  80  40  40  30
Galveston (GLS)        79  84  78  87  79 /  90  60  50  50  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Hurricane Watch for the following zones: Brazoria
     Islands...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
     Matagorda...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda
     Islands.

     Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Bolivar
     Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal
     Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
     Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Fort Bend...Galveston
     Island...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
     Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda
     Islands...Northern Liberty...Southern Liberty...Wharton.

     Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for the following
     zones: Austin...Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
     Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
     Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
     Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston
     Island...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
     Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda
     Islands...Northern Liberty...Southern
     Liberty...Waller...Wharton.

     Tropical Storm Watch for the following zones:
     Austin...Colorado...Waller.

GM...Hurricane Watch for the following zones: Coastal waters from
     Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Matagorda
     Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
     from 20 to 60 NM.

     Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
     from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20
     NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20
     NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport
     to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

13 tropical storm, 8 storm surge/tide, 1 hurricane (typhoon). Local standard time, as filed.

Hurricane (Typhoon), Matagorda Islands

When: September 13, 3:00 PM CST to September 14, 3:00 AM CST
Where: Matagorda Islands forecast zone
Category: 1
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 28.786, -96.004 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Hurricane Nicholas produced several hours of strong tropical storm force sustained winds and gusts. Winds briefly exceeded hurricane thresholds at a wind sensor near Matagorda. There were numerous power outages, trees downed and minor to moderate damage to some structures and roofs. There was minor to moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion. The towns of Sargent and Matagorda were especially hard hit.

Tropical Storm, Coastal Matagorda

When: September 13, 4:00 PM CST to September 14, 2:00 AM CST
Where: Coastal Matagorda forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 28.786, -96.004 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Hurricane Nicholas produced a period of strong tropical storm force sustained winds and gusts. There were numerous power outages, trees downed and minor to moderate damage to some structures and roofs. There was minor to moderate coastal flooding as well and beach erosion. The towns of Sargent and Matagorda were especially hard hit.

Tropical Storm, Inland Matagorda

When: September 13, 6:00 PM CST to September 14, 2:00 AM CST
Where: Inland Matagorda forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 28.786, -96.004 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Hurricane Nicholas produced a period tropical storm force sustained winds and gusts. There were numerous power outages, trees downed and minor to moderate damage to some structures and roofs. There was minor to moderate coastal flooding as well and beach erosion. The towns of Sargent and Matagorda were especially hard hit.

Tropical Storm, Wharton

When: September 13, 6:00 PM CST to September 14, 2:00 AM CST
Where: Wharton forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 29.278, -96.222 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Hurricane Nicholas produced a period tropical storm force sustained winds and gusts. There were numerous power outages, trees downed and minor damage to some structures and roofs.

Tropical Storm, Brazoria Islands

When: September 13, 7:00 PM CST to September 14, 4:00 AM CST
Where: Brazoria Islands forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 29.168, -95.434 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Hurricane Nicholas produced several hours of strong tropical storm force sustained winds and gusts. There were numerous power outages and minor to moderate damage to some structures and roofs and minor to moderate coastal flooding including in the town of Surfside and along Blue Water Highway.

Tropical Storm, Inland Brazoria

When: September 13, 7:00 PM CST to September 14, 4:00 AM CST
Where: Inland Brazoria forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 29.168, -95.434 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Hurricane Nicholas produced several hours of strong tropical storm force sustained winds and gusts. There were numerous power outages and minor to moderate damage to some structures and roofs. Numerous trees down in patches. City of Lake Jackson was especially hard hit.

Tropical Storm, Fort Bend

When: September 13, 7:00 PM CST to September 14, 4:00 AM CST
Where: Fort Bend forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 29.528, -95.771 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Hurricane Nicholas produced several hours of tropical storm force sustained winds and gusts. There were numerous power outages and minor to moderate damage to some structures and roofs. Trees down in areas.

Tropical Storm, Bolivar Peninsula

When: September 13, 10:00 PM CDT to September 14, 5:00 AM CDT
Where: Bolivar Peninsula forecast zone
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 29.298, -94.811 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Hurricane Nicholas produced tropical storm force sustained winds and gusts. The storm also produced minor storm surge flooding and beach erosion.

Tropical Storm, Galveston Island

When: September 13, 9:00 PM CST to September 14, 5:00 AM CST
Where: Galveston Island forecast zone
Reported by: ASOS
Coordinates: 29.298, -94.811 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Hurricane Nicholas produced several hours of strong tropical storm force sustained winds and gusts. There were numerous power outages and minor to moderate damage to some structures and roofs. The storm also produced minor storm surge flooding.

Storm Surge/Tide, Coastal Matagorda

When: September 13, 9:00 PM CST to September 14, 2:00 AM CST
Where: Coastal Matagorda forecast zone
Reported by: NWS Storm Survey
Coordinates: 28.786, -96.004 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Coastal tide gauges measured and NWS storm survey confirmed generally 3 to 6 feet of surge above MHHW along the Gulf Coast and Galveston Bay. Storm survey found a few spots of higher surge with close to 8 feet above MHHW estimated at Sargent but this included the impacts of surf/wave action.

Storm Surge/Tide, Matagorda Islands

When: September 13, 9:00 PM CST to September 14, 2:00 AM CST
Where: Matagorda Islands forecast zone
Reported by: NWS Storm Survey
Coordinates: 28.786, -96.004 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Storm Surge/Tide, Coastal Jackson

When: September 13, 9:00 PM CST to September 14, 2:00 AM CST
Where: Coastal Jackson forecast zone
Reported by: NWS Storm Survey
Coordinates: 28.954, -96.578 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Coastal tide gauges measured and NWS storm survey confirmed generally 3 to 4 feet of surge above MHHW along the Gulf Coast and eastern Matagorda Bay. Storm survey found a few spots of higher surge with close to 8 feet above MHHW estimated at Sargent but this included the impacts of surf/wave action.

Storm Surge/Tide, Coastal Brazoria

When: September 13, 9:00 PM CST to September 14, 3:00 AM CST
Where: Coastal Brazoria forecast zone
Reported by: NWS Storm Survey
Coordinates: 29.168, -95.434 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Storm Surge/Tide, Brazoria Islands

When: September 13, 9:00 PM CST to September 14, 3:00 AM CST
Where: Brazoria Islands forecast zone
Reported by: NWS Storm Survey
Coordinates: 29.168, -95.434 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Tropical Storm, Coastal Harris

When: September 13, 10:00 PM CST to September 14, 5:00 AM CST
Where: Coastal Harris forecast zone
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 29.857, -95.392 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Hurricane Nicholas produced several hours of strong tropical storm force sustained winds and gusts. There were numerous power outages and mainly minor damage to some structures and roofs. Some trees downed. The storm also produced minor storm surge flooding.

Tropical Storm, Inland Harris

When: September 13, 10:00 PM CST to September 14, 5:00 AM CST
Where: Inland Harris forecast zone
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 29.857, -95.392 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Hurricane Nicholas produced minimal tropical storm force sustained winds and gusts. There were scattered power outages and mainly minor damage to some structures and roofs. Some trees downed.

Tropical Storm, Chambers

When: September 13, 10:00 PM CST to September 14, 5:00 AM CST
Where: Chambers forecast zone
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 29.708, -94.671 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Hurricane Nicholas produced tropical storm force sustained winds and gusts. The storm also produced minor storm surge flooding and beach erosion.

Tropical Storm, Southern Liberty

When: September 13, 10:00 PM CST to September 14, 5:00 AM CST
Where: Southern Liberty forecast zone
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 30.152, -94.812 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Hurricane Nicholas produced tropical storm force sustained winds and gusts. The storm also produced minor storm surge flooding.

Storm Surge/Tide, Bolivar Peninsula

When: September 13, 11:00 PM CDT to September 14, 4:00 AM CDT
Where: Bolivar Peninsula forecast zone
Reported by: NWS Storm Survey
Coordinates: 29.298, -94.811 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Coastal tide gauges measured and NWS storm survey confirmed generally 3 to 6 feet of surge above MHHW along the Gulf Coast and Galveston Bay, with closer to the lower end of the range for Bolivar Peninsula.

Tropical Storm, Waller

When: September 13, 10:00 PM CST to September 14, 5:00 AM CST
Where: Waller forecast zone
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 30.011, -95.988 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Hurricane Nicholas produced minimal tropical storm force sustained winds and gusts. There were scattered power outages and mainly minor damage to some structures and roofs. Some trees downed.

Storm Surge/Tide, Galveston Island

When: September 13, 11:00 PM CST to September 14, 4:00 AM CST
Where: Galveston Island forecast zone
Reported by: NWS Storm Survey
Coordinates: 29.298, -94.811 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Storm Surge/Tide, Coastal Harris

When: September 14, 12:00 AM CST to 6:00 AM CST
Where: Coastal Harris forecast zone
Reported by: NWS Storm Survey
Coordinates: 29.857, -95.392 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Coastal tide gauges and NWS storm survey measured generally 3 to 6 feet above MHHW along the western shore of Galveston Bay. The maximum surge was up near the Houston Ship Channel where 5.95 feet above MHHW was measured. A small portion of this was likely due to rainfall/runoff.

What these are

Hurricane (Typhoon): A tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 64 knots (74 mph) or more, filed per forecast zone for its wind, and with separate events for its flooding, surge and tornadoes.
Tropical Storm: A tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 34 to 63 knots (39 to 73 mph).
Storm Surge/Tide: Water pushed ashore above the normal tide by a storm’s winds and low pressure.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Texas in 2021 Every state in 2021 This day in weather history Warnings in Texas, September 2021 The 2021 hurricane season

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 987246, 987440, 987196, 987444, 987154, 987155, 987443, 987151, 987152, 987403, 987404, 987405, 987413, 987435, 987153, 987261, 987268, 987269, 987438, 987445, 987408, 987424.