A complicated weather pattern developed over South Central Texas when a dryline and cold front moved out of West Texas as an upper level low moved into the Central Plains. At the same time the remnants of Pacific Hurricane Pamela moved across northern Mexico.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.
A complicated weather pattern developed over South Central Texas when a dryline and cold front moved out of West Texas as an upper level low moved into the Central Plains. At the same time the remnants of Pacific Hurricane Pamela moved across northern Mexico. The airmass over the region was warm and moist with near record precipitable water values. This set up led to an excessive rain episode with considerable flash flooding and river flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 13, 2:01 PM CST, 2 hours 24 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 301 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 .SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)... DFX Doppler radar is showing a line of showers and thunderstorms pushing from the southwest to the northeast affecting the western portion of Val Verde County as of 230 pm CDT. Both GOES 16 and 17 visible images are showing Tropical Storm Pamela pushing across central Mexico with a steering wind flow from the southwest, which means that most of that moisture will end up across South Central Texas this afternoon into late this evening across the western half of the area and over the eastern half mainly overnight through late Thursday morning. It is a complicated short-term forecast period, however, breaking it up for you all for better understanding and sharing our thoughts on how we think things are going to play out. So, for this afternoon into the evening, showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase out west across the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau as a frontal boundary sits across central Texas, increased moisture arrives from the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern Pacific associated with Tropical Storm Pamela. The setup looks interesting as DRT forecast soundings suggest water-loaded sounding in addition to elevated CAPE values and EBWD around 40 knots before sunset. Therefore, can't rule out a strong to marginally severe storm to develop with possible strong gust winds of 40 and up to 60 mph. Also, can't rule out a quick spin-up under this scenario. Once the evening arrives, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the southern Edwards Plateau with a water-loaded atmosphere which means that heavy rain is anticipated over the affected areas. Several HiRes models including HRRR, RAP, NAM Nest, and Texas Tech suggest for showers and thunderstorms to keep going overnight into Thursday with a low to mid-level trough axis being the driver as it moves from northwest to southeast. With pwats running around 2.2 to 2.5 inches overnight over the western part of the Hill Country and most areas east of Highway 83, heavy rain is likely to occur and produce flash flooding. Also, the latest guidance suggests for the heavy rain to affect areas along the I-35 corridor not included in previous discussions and have been added to Flash Flood Watch that is in effect through Thursday evening. Storm rainfall totals continue to be the same as previous forecast packages with 2 to 5 inches overall over most locations and 5 to 7 inches over isolated spots. Rain should come to an end from west to east on Thursday with some lingering showers expected across the Coastal Plains during the afternoon. A relatively quiet night is forecast for Thursday evening with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s across most areas. && .LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... Much quieter weather is set to enter the picture, just in time for the weekend. Friday will be a transition day, as our strongest cold front of the season races through the area. The front should move into the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau by 9am, through the I-35 Corridor by 11am, and clear the entire CWA by 1pm. There should be a fairly wide range in high temperatures across the region given the timing of the frontal passage, with mid to upper 70s over the Hill Country, to the mid to upper 80s south of a Del Rio to San Antonio to San Marcos line. Winds will pick up rather quickly, and be somewhat gusty at times, with sustained winds of 10-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph for a few spots. A quick drop in humidity levels will be immediately noticed, which is the result of much cooler air working into the region. Expect winds to remain quite breezy on Friday night, leading to what could almost be referred to as a "chilly" start to Saturday morning. Temperatures will start in the 50s for most, and adding in the breeze, a slight chill to the air will be felt. High pressure will slowly settle southward during the day on Saturday, with absolutely P-E-R-F-E-C-T Fall weather making itself known both days this weekend. Winds will remain light and NE/ENE through the weekend, along with mainly clear skies and highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Sunday morning will actually bring the coolest air of the season, as winds relax, skies remain clear, and surface dewpoints fall into the upper 30s/lower 40s, expect morning temperatures on Sunday to be in the lower to middle 40s over the Hill Country, with a few upper 30s even possible in some of our drainage areas. The remainder of the region will start in the mid to upper 40s, warming to the 70s by the afternoon. Please, please, please find some time to get outside this weekend and enjoy the fall weather, you will not regret it! Looking to next week, we should remain within a quieter pattern, along with more seasonable temperatures in the 80s and mornings in the 50s. Moisture will slowly start to return by mid to late week as our next cold front approaches. Models are actually in decent agreement at this juncture on the timing of this front, but how much moisture we can squeeze out of it is still yet to be determined. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 71 85 69 83 54 / 90 50 - - 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 70 84 68 84 51 / 90 70 - 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 88 69 86 52 / 90 70 - 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 69 85 65 79 50 / 90 20 0 - 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 70 91 68 86 55 / 60 0 0 - 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 84 68 80 50 / 90 40 - - 0 Hondo Muni Airport 70 89 66 86 52 / 90 20 0 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 85 67 85 52 / 90 70 - 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 86 71 87 54 / 60 90 10 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 87 70 85 54 / 80 30 0 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 74 89 71 88 56 / 80 40 0 20 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Atascosa-Bandera- Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-Dimmit-Edwards-Frio- Gillespie-Guadalupe-Hays-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-Maverick-Medina- Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson-Wilson-Zavala. && Short-Term/Aviation...17 Long-Term...Morris Decision Support...Hampshire
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 337 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-140845- Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera- Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde- Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala- Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit- 337 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas.. .DAY ONE...Today And Tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Wednesday. The main event is currently forecast to arrive Wednesday evening and continue into Thursday morning. There is a moderate risk for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding during this time along and west of the I-35 corridor. An axis of 3-5 inches of rainfall is currently forecast across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau, with isolated higher amounts up to 7 inches. 1-4 inches of rainfall is forecast along the Rio Grande and I-35 corridor. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect roughly along and west of the I-35 corridor. Rainfall amounts of less than 1 inch is forecast east of the watch area. In addition, there is a very low but nonzero risk for a tornado or perhaps some damaging winds late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, mainly over the western half of our region. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday morning with the possibility of heavy rainfall leading to Flash Flooding. Activity will be impacting areas of the I-35 corridor and points eastward through the morning hours. Rainfall should end west to east across the area by the afternoon hours Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to submit rainfall totals.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
319 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021
TXZ202-217-132100-
Maverick TX-Kinney TX-
319 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Kinney
and northwestern Maverick Counties through 400 PM CDT...
At 318 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Quemado, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Brackettville, Spofford, Anacacho, Fort Clark Springs and Laughlin
AFB Aux Field.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 2908 10067 2910 10067 2939 10046 2924 10027
2916 10016 2896 10053
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 226DEG 23KT 2906 10055
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021
TXZ202-203-217-218-132145-
Maverick TX-Uvalde TX-Kinney TX-Zavala TX-
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Kinney,
northeastern Maverick, western Uvalde and northwestern Zavala
Counties through 445 PM CDT...
At 359 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Anacacho, or 11 miles southeast of Brackettville, moving northeast at
30 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Laguna, Dabney, Montell, Blewett, Cline, Garner State Park, Anacacho,
Reagan Wells and Turkey Mountain.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 2904 10036 2928 10034 2961 10023 2962 9968
2891 9996
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 213DEG 26KT 2925 10024
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CPSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
433 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021
TXZ185-203-132215-
Uvalde TX-Real TX-
433 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Uvalde and Real
Counties through 515 PM CDT...
At 432 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Barksdale to near Montell to near Laguna to 6
miles west of Uvalde Estates. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Uvalde, Leakey, Camp Wood, Knippa, Laguna, Tuff, Rio Frio, Concan,
Vance, Uvalde Estates, Montell, Garner State Park, Reagan Wells and
Prade Ranch.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 2962 10004 2963 10001 2971 10005 2972 10002
2978 10003 2980 10001 2985 10003 2988 10002
3008 9972 2997 9969 2991 9969 2991 9967
2916 9947 2909 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 213DEG 36KT 2972 10006 2952 9997 2939 9993
2914 9993
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
CPThe Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 95 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:26 UTC.
22 flash flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A thunderstorm produced wind gusts estimated at 65 mph. There were several large tree limbs down, broken windows, and the roof of a barn was completely lifted up and blown off at a residence north of Vanderpool.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. Several low water crossings were flooded with multiple high water rescues in northern and western Bexar County. Rainfall totals in Helotes were up 5.70 inches.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. The Little Blanco River flooded the FM 32 bridge northeast of Twin Sisters.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. Several low water crossings were flooded in central Hays County. Rainfall totals near Wimberley were 8.65 inches.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. Low water crossings along Swine and Ahern Creeks near Spring Branch. Rainfall totals in Spring Branch were 6.50 inches.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. An SUV was swept off Blanco Rd. near Dietz-Elkhorn Rd. west of Bulverde. Two people were rescued from the vehicle. Rainfall totals in Bulverde were 5.02 inches.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. Several roads were flooded in central and western parts of the Caldwell County. Rainfall totals around Lockhart were as high as 7.64 inches.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. A pickup truck was carried a couple of hundred feet by rushing water on Southwell Rd near Verbena St. along Leon Creek.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. A couple of trailers at the RV park on the Guadalupe River under I-35 were washed into the river. No one was in the trailers.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. There were multiple high water rescues along Santa Clara Creek near Marion.
Several vehicles were swept off N Graytown Road at a low water crossing. While several persons were successfully rescued, two persons lost their lives including a 5 year old female and a 52 year old female.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. FM 532 was closed due to flooding east of Gonzales. Up to 9.90 inches of rain fell in Gonzales.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. There were several high water rescues around Gonzales. Up to 9.90 inches of rain fell in Gonzales.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. There were several high water rescues in La Grange and Hwy 77 and Hwy 71 were both closed due to flooding. Rainfall totals around La Grange were as high as 8.65 inches.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. There was a high water rescue in Flatonia.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. There were multiple vehicle rescues across Guadalupe County, multiple roads were flooded, and many creeks were going out of their banks. Up to 7.53 inches of rain fell near Seguin.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. ATXFloods reported over 30 low water crossings flooded in the western part of Caldwell County.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. FM 1107 was flooded in Pandora.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. The San Marcos Police Department closed the Hwy 80 bridge over the Blanco River to rescue some people in the river.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. FM 532 at the Lavaca River was flooded in Moulton. Up to 5.12 inches of rain fell in Moulton.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. FM 1447 and FM 766 were closed due to flooding north of Cuero..
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. FM 466 was washed out at Dulling Creek near Monthalia.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. Hwy 80 was flooded between Helena and Gillett.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flash Flood, Bexar | 2021-10-14 | 5 | Female | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
| Flash Flood, Bexar | 2021-10-14 | 52 | Female | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 988157, 988158, 988159, 988161, 988162, 988186, 988188, 988189, 988190, 988191, 980123, 988205, 988206, 988207, 988210, 988211, 988212, 988288, 988289, 988291, 988293, 988294, 988295.