Drought in Texas, May 1 to 31, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1235 AM CDT Sat May 1 2021

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through most of the night, though some
brief drops into low MVFR/IFR could be possible as rain showers
move over terminals. CIGS should drop to MVFR shortly before
sunrise at all terminals. There is a chance that CDS could see IFR
CIGs along with a slight reduction in VIS by sunrise. CIGs should
improve to low end VFR by/after 18Z this afternoon with skies
beginning to slowly clear at PVW and LBB after 00Z. Near MVFR CIGs
are expected to remain at CDS beyond 00Z tonight. A chance for
rain will exist at all terminals through 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 142 PM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021/

SHORT TERM...
Showers developing across the Permian Basin and Concho Valley will
begin to move northward toward the southern sections of the forecast
area this afternoon and evening as the persistent and nearly-
stationary upper low over Chihuahua begins to rotate to the east-
northeast across Coahuila on Saturday and central Texas on Saturday
night. Instability remains very limited with progged CAPE values
remain mostly below 400 J/kg through Saturday. Will continue
favoring a shower wording while maintaining a slight chance of
thunder mention for periodic increases in CAPE above 500 J/kg.
Precipitation will favor southern zones tonight and southeastern on
Saturday following the movement of the upper low and its associated
lift. Persistent showers and cloud cover southeast will result in
the coolest high temperatures there on Saturday while northwestern
zones where skies will be clearing will run about 10 degrees warmer
than the cooler southeast.

LONG TERM...
The upper-level low that has brought precipitation to the area
will begin to move east out of Texas on Sunday as an upper-level
trough moves into the Intermountain West. As this trough dips to the
southeast, a lee cyclone will form in eastern Colorado and move to
the southeast. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient over
the area, bringing breezy west to southwesterly winds. Mostly sunny
skies and downslope winds will allow highs to rise into the upper
80s and lower 90s for much of the area on Sunday. The aforementioned
upper-level trough will drive a cold front through the area Monday,
bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms for Monday
afternoon into early Tuesday. This front will also bring
temperatures 10 degrees below normal Tuesday. As the upper-level
trough moves off to the east, another trough will dive into the
Intermountain West. A surface cyclone will move near the area on
Wednesday bringing breezy conditions. This trough will most likely
be farther north than the previous, which will result in
precipitation remaining north of the CWFA. As this trough moves off
to the east, an upper-level ridge will begin to build in from the
west. Clear and breezy conditions are expected for the weekend;
however, there are some indications that ripples within the
northwest flow aloft could bring the potential for precipitation.

GKendrick

FIRE WEATHER...
Sunday Breezy west to southwesterly winds are expected Sunday over
the South Plains. These breezy downslope winds will help with
warming and drying at the surface, resulting in elevated to critical
fire conditions west of the Caprock escarpment.

GKendrick

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

51/99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
143 PM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021

TXZ021>044-011845-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
143 PM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated non-severe thunderstorms may accompany scattered showers
this afternoon and evening generally to the south of a Morton to
Guthrie line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected to
return to the South Plains and far southeastern Texas Panhandle for
the day on Sunday.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday into early Tuesday
over the far southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Rolling
Plains. The severe weather threat is expected to remain low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.