A strong upper level low pressure system and a cold front brought strong to isolated severe storms to West Central Texas. A few of these storms produced damaging thunderstorm wind gusts near San Angelo and Brownwood.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJT wrote it up.
A strong upper level low pressure system and a cold front brought strong to isolated severe storms to West Central Texas. A few of these storms produced damaging thunderstorm wind gusts near San Angelo and Brownwood.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 13, 6:05 PM CST, 1 hour 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 605 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 117 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021 ...Severe Storms Possible Late this Afternoon and Tonight... Water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper level low moving slowly eastward across the AZ/UT border, with southwest flow aloft over West Texas. On visible satellite, mid and high clouds across West Central Texas are gradually moving out of the area, while low clouds are partially clearing, resulting in increasing day- time heating, which should help increase instability potential this afternoon. At the surface, a north-to-south oriented dry-line stretched from the NM/TX Border south through the Big Bend region, with dewpoints in the 20s/30s west of the dry-line and low to mid 60s east of the dry-line. As the day goes on, the dry-line will mix east into the Permian Basin, while a Pacific cold front coming in from the west approaches from behind. This front will effectively merge with the dry-line by late afternoon, and the front will continue to push east into West Central Texas early this evening through late tonight. The aforementioned moisture east of the dry-line, late afternoon/evening instability, and lift from frontal convergence and a short-wave rotating around the low, will result in thunderstorms and showers developing late this afternoon just west of our region and moving across our forecast area from west to east though late tonight. All hi-res models indicate that the storms will form in a line along the cold front as it moves through, with some weaker storms or light showers lingering behind the main squall line. By sunrise Sunday, any showers/storms should be east of our forecast area. Early this evening, the nocturnal southerly jet strengthens, resulting in very strong 0-6 km shear of 60-75 KT, while 0-1 km shear of 15-25 KT supports the potential for a few tornadoes as well. Meanwhile, with continued day-time heating and dewpoints in the low 60s, ML CAPE values look to increase to around 1000-2000 J/KG. Thus, the combination of instability and shear could result in strong to severe storms. SPC convective outlook has most of our forecast area in a Slight Risk, except in the western and northwestern Big Country where there is an Enhanced Risk. Also, the Northwest Hill Country and eastern Heartland regions are in a Marginal Risk. Main threats are large to very large hail (largest hail in our extreme western counties), damaging winds (with the potential for 75+ mph wind gusts in the western and northwestern Big Country and western Concho Valley), and a few tornadoes (highest risk in the western counties). Sunday, look for skies to clear with dry, gusty westerly winds moving in. Dewpoints lowering into the 20s will likely result in relative humidities lowering into the 15-20 percent range by late afternoon, which could combine with the gusty winds to create elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Patchy blowing dust could get blown into our region from the west during the afternoon due to gusty west winds of 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Warm, downsloping westerly flow could result in warmer temperatures than many models are showing, with official forecast highs in the low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 235 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021 Looks like quiet weather Sunday night through Monday night as weak upper ridging will be over the area. The next weather system will move into the area Tuesday afternoon and night. An upper level short wave will combine with returning gulf moisture to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night. Also, much of west central Texas will be in the warm sector, east of the dryline and south of a developing warm front Tuesday afternoon and evening. A few strong storms are possible across the eastern half of the area Tuesday night. For Wednesday through Saturday, look for dry weather and breezy conditions on Wednesday and Thursday. Also, cooler temperatures are expected. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 604 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021 Thunderstorms will move into the TAF sites this evening, affecting most sites between 00Z and 06Z. Will have some TEMPO groups in the forecasts to account for briefly MVFR conditions as the storms move through. Could also see some large hail and damaging winds with these storms, with the best chances for that at KABI and KSJT. After the storms move through, conditions will improve to VFR within a few hours, remaining VFR through tomorrow afternoon. Will see west winds increase to 15 to 25 knots, and gusty tomorrow by late morning, through the afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 46 71 47 73 / 90 0 0 0 San Angelo 43 72 45 76 / 90 0 0 0 Junction 47 73 42 79 / 80 0 0 0 Brownwood 49 72 44 78 / 80 5 0 0 Sweetwater 44 69 48 73 / 80 0 0 0 Ozona 42 71 42 75 / 90 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...SJH LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...20
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service San Angelo TX 149 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021 TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139- 140-154-155-168>170-142000- Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho- Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford- Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble- Mason- 149 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Thunderstorms are expected to develop across western portions of the forecast area late this afternoon and early evening, and spread east across the rest of West Central Texas through late tonight. Some of the storms may become severe, especially this evening. Large to possibly very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. The threat for strongest wind gusts, potentially reaching 75 mph, will be across the western Big Country and northwest Concho Valley. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is also expected with these storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions possible Sunday afternoon due to gusty west winds and low humidity. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed this evening. Please relay any information about observed weather to the NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
628 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021
TXZ076-140130-
Crockett TX-
628 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CROCKETT COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM CST...
At 625 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms from near Bakersfield to Rankin, moving northeast at
40 mph.
Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwest Crockett
County.
LAT...LON 3109 10228 3108 10155 3088 10188 3089 10189
3092 10187 3098 10198 3098 10201 3100 10204
3099 10207 3099 10214 3102 10218 3100 10219
3103 10220 3104 10223
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 228DEG 59KT 3109 10214
08Special Weather Statement National Weather Service San Angelo TX 653 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021 TXZ049-054-140130- Fisher TX-Nolan TX- 653 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN NOLAN AND FISHER COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CST... At 652 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Valley View, or 9 miles northeast of Colorado City, moving northeast at 45 mph. Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. This strong thunderstorm will be near... Wastella around 700 PM CST. Hobbs around 720 PM CST. Rotan and Roby around 730 PM CST. Other locations impacted by this storm include Gannon, Busby, Capitola, Us-180 Near The Fisher-Scurry County Line and Us- 84 Near The Nolan-Fisher County Line. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. && LAT...LON 3275 10015 3245 10066 3276 10066 3297 10065 TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 230DEG 39KT 3252 10078 SK
The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 70 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:21 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A NWS Employee estimated a 60 mph thunderstorm wind gust in Sterling City.
ASOS located at San Angelo's Mathis Field Airport measured a thunderstorm wind gust of 63 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 946926, 946927.