Tornadoes and Hail in Texas, March 13, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
217 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

.SHORT TERM...
At 1:30 pm, the dryline is surging into the southwestern South
Plains, resulting in a convergent axis running SE-NW through the
forecast area and pointed into the far SW Texas Panhandle. Storms
are developing from northeast NM southward, and now just crossing
the state line. In the near-term, scattered thunderstorms, some
becoming quickly severe, will continue to develop and expand
eastward. Some storms will become supercellular and bring the
threats of very large hail, tornadoes, and locally heavy rainfall.
As we move into late afternoon and early evening, very strong
forcing will spread over the area in conjunction with a jet streak
on the east side of the upper low and a Pacific-type front will
overtake the dryline across the central South Plains. This combined
forcing should initiate a north-south line of storms, which will
then sweep east through the remainder of the area...exiting by
around midnight. In addition, the LLJ will be strengthening and act
to increase the SRH. Any storms that can remain discrete ahead of
the line will be favored to remain supercellular and have the
potential for strong tornadoes, although due to the strong shear,
even cells embedded within the line will have the potential for
brief tornadoes, and an enhanced straight-line wind threat with any
bowing structures. Behind the front/dryline, drying west winds will
develop across the western South Plains and a Wind Advisory is in
effect for that area through 7 pm. As the upper low moves curls
northeast into eastern Colorado, the mid-level trough axis will
swing over the South Plains, which should keep winds somewhat
elevated overnight. The drier and cooler airmass with the trough's
passage will bring cooler overnight lows.

.LONG TERM...
The upper level low will continue to drift northeast of the area on
Sunday with broad cyclonic circulation around it producing deep
westerly flow across the CWA. In addition a deep surface low will
keep low and mid level gradients strong. Thus, more windy conditions
are expected tomorrow with wind speeds again near advisory levels.
Blowing dust will also be an issue mainly across the Caprock. Monday
zonal to SWRLY flow sets up with more relaxed gradients ahead of our
next upper level system.

Late Tuesday into Wednesday another upper level low will quickly
move northeastward just north of the CWA. Simultaneously, a surface
low will force a dryline eastward through the area. This scenario
will create another round of strong near advisory level westerly
winds. Late Tuesday as the surface low moves NE a cool front will drop
south through the CWA keeping winds elevated through Wednesday
evening. Upper level ridging will settle over the area as the work
week comes to a close.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline will move east across the forecast area this afternoon
bringing elevated to near critical fire weather conditions to the
area. Relative humidity values are starting off near 100% this
morning under cloudy skies. However, as surface cyclogenesis
occurs later this morning and afternoon a dryline will quickly
sharpen and move into western zones of the forecast area. This
will lead to clearing skies and rapidly plummeting relative
humidity values to near 10 percent. As the surface pressure
gradient also tightens westerly to southwesterly winds will
increase this afternoon and early evening with sustained wind
speeds of 20-30 mph and gusts to 45 mph. The majority of this area
has missed out on the rainfall that occurred yesterday therefore
ERC values remain around the 50th percentile. Due to these factors
a Fire Danger Statement has been issued from 1 pm until 7 pm
today.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ021-022-027-028-
033-034-039-040.

&&

33/28

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1146 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

TXZ021>044-141800-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1146 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline
early this afternoon and have the potential to become quickly
severe. The dryline is expected to be located roughly along a
Dimmitt, to Lubbock, to Tahoka line when storms develop. Hail up to
two and a half inches in diameter, wind gusts to 70 mph, and a few
tornadoes will be possible. Strong tornadoes are possible, mainly
across the far Southern Texas Panhandle to the east of Interstate 27.
Brief but heavy rain may also lead to localized flooding concerns
especially where heavy rain was observed yesterday.

To the west of the dryline, elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions will develop this afternoon due to the arrival of a dry
air mass and increasing west winds. A wind advisory is also in effect
for the western South Plains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions may develop areawide
Sunday and Tuesday along with strong winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about severe weather to the NWS while following local,
state, and CDC guidelines.