Severe drought conditions affected parts of North Texas for the entire month of March. However, some improvement was seen by the end of the month after beneficial rainfall was received.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
Severe drought conditions affected parts of North Texas for the entire month of March. However, some improvement was seen by the end of the month after beneficial rainfall was received.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 6:24 PM CST, 5 hours 36 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 624 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Monday Night/ Our cold front is making steady southeast progress and has nearly exited the forecast area as of 6pm. Remaining convection is now entirely elevated above the frontal inversion, limiting any strong/severe potential to instances of hail. With MUCAPE as high as 1000 J/kg and strong effective shear still present through this evening, we can't rule out a couple instances of borderline severe hail, mainly southeast of a Temple to Athens line. Most activity should struggle to achieve this however, with lift via frontal convergence displaced to the southeast and mid-level shortwave ascent still displaced far northwest with the main trough. While the surface front will continue to drift southeast, the 925-850mb frontal zone will become stalled mainly across our Central Texas counties overnight and into Monday. As the main trough slowly moves across over the next ~24 hours, this setup will favor fairly widespread overrunning precipitation, especially across our Central and East Texas counties. In addition, tall thin MUCAPE profiles should support instances of heavy rainfall capable of localized flooding. Some parts of Central Texas could conceivably pick up 2-4" of rainfall over the course of tonight through Monday night, so we'll have to keep an eye on flooding potential in these areas. Across North Texas, rain showers will be much more scattered/isolated during the day tomorrow, but should increase in coverage some by tomorrow evening. Significantly less (near 0) instability will be present in North Texas, so no thunder will be included in the forecast for the time being. Precip on Monday night will be associated with the cold core upper low as it passes eastward roughly along the red River. While the saturated cloud layer will be cold enough to consist mostly of frozen precipitation and/or supercooled droplets, this should all warm/melt on its journey to the surface with temperatures within the lowest ~1000 ft expected to mostly be in the low 40s. All precip should be exiting to the east heading into Tuesday morning. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 339 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/ /Tuesday Onward/ After a cool start to the week, gradual airmass modifications will begin to take place on Tuesday as the system responsible for Monday's rain chances moves off to the east. Low level ridging will likely end precipitation chances throughout North and Central Texas by Tuesday morning, leaving behind a dry and mostly clear Tuesday. Highs will likely range between the 50s and 60s as northeasterly winds remain throughout much of the day. By Tuesday night, winds are likely to become southerly in response to the increasing surface pressure across East Texas. By Wednesday, the next system will be rolling off the Rockies and traversing toward Central Oklahoma. The low-level wind field is expected to become southwesterly during the course of the afternoon, likely contributing to temperatures climbing into the lower to mid 70s along and west of I-35. Upper ridging will continue into the day on Thursday, spreading the 70 degree highs throughout the rest of North and Central Texas. A potent upper system is expected to take a dive southeastward toward North and Central Texas on Friday. Rain chances will once again increase next weekend throughout the region. The potential for embedded thunderstorms will depend on the exact track the system takes. For now, will advertise mainly rain showers given the lack of instability. The heaviest precipitation is expected to remain north of our region, with fairly light amounts expected for North and Central Texas. Highs will likely be around to slightly below normal for this time of the year. Hernandez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ The cold front has cleared all TAF sites as of 00z with breezy north winds now set to prevail through the entire period. Ragged post-frontal MVFR stratus lingers at a few TAF sites at this time, but conditions are expected to improve to VFR within the next hour or two. Mid-level VFR cigs will likely persist through much of this TAF period though. Overnight, additional fairly widespread showers with a few embedded storms should expand across parts of Central Texas, impacting the Waco TAF site through Monday morning. Cigs will also deteriorate at Waco, and may return to MVFR late tonight or tomorrow morning. Any rain at Metroplex airports should be much more isolated/intermittent, so we'll only advertise some VCSH through the day tomorrow. Widespread showers should expand northward late tomorrow afternoon or evening, and we'll introduce prevailing SHRA at all airports. While the DFW area is expected to mostly remain VFR, significantly lower cigs (borderline IFR/MVFR) may prevail at Waco for an extended time, but confidence in cig heights is fairly low at this time. -Stalley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 43 54 40 56 37 / 20 30 40 10 0 Waco 46 52 41 57 36 / 60 70 40 5 0 Paris 43 55 38 50 33 / 20 20 50 30 0 Denton 40 54 37 57 33 / 10 20 40 5 0 McKinney 42 55 39 54 35 / 20 20 50 10 0 Dallas 45 55 42 57 39 / 20 30 50 10 0 Terrell 44 53 39 54 34 / 30 50 50 10 0 Corsicana 46 53 41 56 37 / 50 70 50 10 0 Temple 44 52 39 59 35 / 70 80 30 10 0 Mineral Wells 40 54 36 59 34 / 20 20 30 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 543 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-011300- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 543 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. An isolated strong or severe thunderstorm is possible this evening south of I-20 and east of I-35. Large hail is the primary hazard. In addition, heavy rainfall should develop overnight into early Monday morning across parts of Central and East Texas, increasing the potential for flooding in low-lying and poor draining areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Thunderstorm chances continue into Monday with a small hail risk during the morning hours. A heavy rainfall and subsequent minor flood threat is also expected to continue through Tuesday. The hail and minor flood risk is expected to be confined to Central and East Texas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe drought conditions affected western portions of the county and spread further east throughout the month.
Severe drought conditions affected eastern portions of the county in early March. By the middle of the month, severe drought conditions were experienced across the entire county.
Severe drought conditions affected eastern portions of the county in early March and spread further west by the middle of the month.
Severe drought conditions affected southwest portions of the county but improved by the end of the month.
Severe drought conditions affected northeast portions of the county but improved by the end of the month.
Severe drought conditions affected much of the county but improved by the end of the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 950814, 950817, 950818, 950830, 950831, 950832.