Several rounds of heavy rain moved across eastern Kentucky from late Friday, February 26th through early Monday, March 1st. The combination of all the heavy rainfall led to significant flooding across a good portion of central and east Kentucky.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Several rounds of heavy rain moved across eastern Kentucky from late Friday, February 26th through early Monday, March 1st. The combination of all the heavy rainfall led to significant flooding across a good portion of central and east Kentucky. For some areas, this was the most significant flooding in the last 50 to 60 years, or more. FEMA estimates that this event cost $350-400 million dollars in damages, including both individual and public infrastructure. This is now the costliest event in Kentucky to date.
The first round of heavy rain came through on the morning of Saturday, February 27th. This early rainfall targeted areas along the Hal Rogers Parkway, including Laurel, Clay, Perry, and Knott counties. Flash flooding let to some closed roads for a short time in these areas.
The second round of rainfall occurred late Saturday night as a warm front lifted northward across east Kentucky. The heavy rain stalled out over portions of Powell and Menifee Counties, leading to flash flooding into the early morning hours of Sunday.
Finally, the third round of heavy rain started late Sunday afternoon and continued through Sunday night. Given that much of the area had already received significant amounts of rain from the past two events, the ground was very saturated, and this last round caused widespread flash flooding across much of east Kentucky. As water made it's way to the larger creeks and rivers, these began to flood as well. River levels on the Kentucky river were some of the highest readings ever recorded, namely at Booneville and Ravenna. Clay City, Heidelberg, Jackson, Paintsville, and Salyersville also saw significant river flooding of which hadn't been seen in 40 to 50 years.
The periods of heavy rain and flooding led to numerous water rescues and mud/rock slides. Many areas were cut off or blocked due to the flooding. Power outages were also noted and reached as high as 12,000 during the peak of the flash flooding Sunday night.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 11:30 PM EST, 30 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1130 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1130 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021 This actually makes the second forecast update that has been issued so far this shift, but due to how busy we have been with flooding, no AFD was issued with the previous update. The first update removed the late afternoon period from the zone forecast product, and freshened up the hourly forecast grids with the latest hourly obs. For this update, the forecast was generally in good shape with no major changes needed. A few tweaks were made to the orientation and progression of a slow moving cold front and the precipitation that is ongoing along it. The changes that were made to the grids not significant, but the small changes that were made did freshen up the current forecast products a bit. The latest obs were again used to establish new trends in the hourly forecast grids. The updated zones have already been issued. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 530 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021 Late this afternoon, an upper level low was rotating across the Hudson Bay region with a trough axis extending southwest into the Southern Rockies while an upper level ridge as centered near the southern tip of FL and extending north into the western Atlantic and southwest into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Multiple shortwaves in southwest flow were moving from the southern Plains across the OH Valley and into the mid Atlantic states while a more robust northern stream shortwave was working into the western Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure was centered in the upper peninsula of MI vicinity with a cold front trailing south to near the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers and then south and southwest into the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, a warm front extended east across the OH Valley into the central Appalachians. A sfc trough/differential heating boundary extended from near Rockcastle County east to around Martin County with rain cooled air in the lower 60s to the north and upper 60s to around 70 readings to the south. Locally, convection was occurring near and just north of this with torrential rainfall rates and probably a few wind gusts. Copious amounts of moisture is being transported into the area at low and mid levels. Divergence at 300 mb is analyzed across the central portion of the area with some weak frontogenesis in the 925 to 850 mb layer. PW is in the 1.2 to 1.4 inch range at the present time with the plume expected to shift southeast. Instability remains on the limited side, and bulk shear is generally overwhelming or not balanced with the instability. There is some potential for convection to have more of a balance of shear and instability further southwest over the next couple of hours. However, the heavy rain rates on top of already saturated ground remains the greatest concern with convection. Multiple Flood Warnings and an embedded flash flood warning is in effect. The heaviest rain axis over the next 3 hours should be from Pulaski County east to near Jackson to Paintsville. As the cold front approaches from the northwest and the shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes and then the 500 mb trough axis approaches from the west tonight and into tomorrow, the axis of heaviest rain will shift southeast this evening into tonight and eventually become a bit more progressive. The heavier rain tonight into early on Monday morning should generally be from near the Mountain Parkway and points to the south. The axis of heavier rain tonight should be from the Lake Cumberland region east northeast near the Hal Rogers parkway and Ky 80 corridor into Pike County. Thus, the threat for flooding or flash flooding should increase through the evening in locations further to the south and southeast not currently in a Flood Warning or Flash Flood Warning. On top of all that, as the water from the recent rounds of rain and rain tonight collects into the larger creeks and area rivers, rivers across the region will continue to rise or rise again. Some points in the KY basin and Red River basin are already in flood and rainfall tonight should lead to rises on the Cumberland with Barbourville and Williamsburg most probable to reach or exceed flood stage. If rain were to be linger a bit longer nearer to the VA border and east into the Sandy than is currently expected, flooding could occur at Pineville on the Cumberland, Jackson on the North Fk of the KY, Paintsville on the Levisa Fk Big Sandy, and perhaps Hazard on the KY. Rain will taper off from northwest to southeast overnight as the cold front pushes toward the crest of the Appalachians and then well southeast of the area during the day on Monday as the 500 mb trough axis shifts east of the area with height rises expected from late Monday into Monday night. The threat for additional flash flooding will diminish as convection diminishes later this evening, but high water should persist on creeks and streams as well as area rivers through the night and into Monday. A secondary front should weaken as it sags into the OH Valley late Tue and into Tue night, with sfc high pressure nosing into the area. Behind the boundary on Monday, temperatures will be cooler a few degrees below normal. Drier air moving into the area should lead to a somewhat cold night Monday night with deeper northern and eastern valley locations dipping into the lower 20s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 610 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021 Overall, a fairly uneventful extended is in store. We begin Tuesday under the influence of high pressure and a colder airmass that moved in behind the cold front that passed during the short term. Temperatures Tuesday will run slightly below seasonal normals from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Models have come to better agreement for the system impacting the region on Wednesday. An upper level southern stream wave, initially over the Southern Plains, will be traveling east, dampening as it does so. It looks to make it near our area over Wednesday, supporting a low at the surface over the Deep South. The general consensus is for the upper level wave and associated surface features to be confined further south, keeping most of the precip out of our area for the most part. There is still some guidance suggesting some of this precip could make its way into portions of our area, especially the southern portions. However, in general, the trend has been further south and if this trend continues the PoPs may need to be lowered further or shifted south. Beyond Wednesday, things continue to look quiet thankfully. After a brief time of warmer temperatures in the mid 50s Wednesday, temperatures again cool down to slightly below seasonal norms as we sit under an area of northwest flow. The flow begins to amplify traveling towards the end of the period. An upper level low moves over the Four Corners region by Friday. There is currently decent agreement in keeping this low moving south as it weakens and travels east, keeping any associated weather south of our area with it. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 629 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021 A challenging TAF forecast this time around, with all the ongoing heavy rain and extensive cloud cover. The TAF sites will experience periods of mostly IFR conditions through around 8Z Monday, as widespread rains showers and a few thunderstorms continue to move across the forecast area. The worst condition's will occur with any thunderstorms or intense rain showers. Cloud bases could extend downward to LIFR levels for brief periods this evening and tonight at JKL, LOZ, and SME. The rain should finally begin to taper off early Monday morning, and be out of eastern Kentucky early Monday afternoon. Areas of fog, which could be dense at times, will also occur from time to time around the area, and could contribute to lower VSBYs at the TAF sites. We should see VFR conditions returning to the airports around 18Z on Monday, as the rain exits to our east and clouds begin to scatter out a bit. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM EST Monday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068- 069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...HAS AVIATION...AR
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1141 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-020745- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 1141 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Rounds of light to moderate rain showers will continue across the area tonight, before finally tapering off toward dawn. Many locations will continue to experience flooding overnight, with any additional rainfall only adding to the ongoing flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Flooding along portions of the Cumberland, Red, and Kentucky river basins will continue through the early portion of the week. High water is also expected through Tuesday in the Big Sandy River basin. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of flooding or rainfall amounts over an inch through tonight. JP/HAS/AR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1112 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1011 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NE SUBLIMITY CITY 37.11N 84.07W
02/28/2021 LAUREL KY BROADCAST MEDIA
VIDEO OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF FLOWING WATER
ACROSS HAMPTON RD.
&&
KASSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1128 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021
KYZ088-115-117-118-010500-
Perry-Harlan-Letcher-Leslie-
1128 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HARLAN...SOUTHWESTERN LETCHER...
SOUTHEASTERN LESLIE AND SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTIES...
At 1128 PM EST, a strong thunderstorm was located over Elcomb, or
over Harlan, moving east at 55 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Harlan, Cumberland, Loyall, Evarts, Lynch, Benham, Bobs Creek,
Leatherwood, Bledsoe, Mary Alice, Arthur, Dizney, Chevrolet,
Louellen, Lewis Creek, Kingdom Come S.P., Gilley, Elcomb, Clutts and
Napier.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 3704 8333 3708 8272 3705 8272 3703 8275
3701 8279 3701 8283 3698 8287 3693 8286
3691 8288 3690 8287 3685 8301 3685 8307
3678 8313 3674 8314 3670 8334 3667 8343
3667 8346
TIME...MOT...LOC 0428Z 265DEG 49KT 3682 8332
GREIFPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1139 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1105 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SSW MAPLESVILLE 37.12N 84.04W
02/28/2021 LAUREL KY BROADCAST MEDIA
VIDEO ON FACEBOOK OF A WATER RESCUE ON
SALLYS BRANCH ROAD.
&&
KASPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1149 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0948 PM FLOOD 2 NNW CURT 37.52N 83.41W
02/28/2021 BREATHITT KY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
HIGHWAY 30 WEST SHUTDOWN AT MILE MARKER 10
TO 11.
&&
KASPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1151 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0950 PM FLOOD 1 SSW PAXTON 37.66N 83.42W
02/28/2021 BREATHITT KY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
HIGHWAY 1812 CLOSED IN VANCLEVE AREA.
&&
KASPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1155 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0954 PM FLOOD 2 N DALESBURG 37.39N 83.49W
02/28/2021 BREATHITT KY PUBLIC
WATER COVERING THE ROAD AT MILE MARKER 1 ON
HIGHWAY 315.
&&
KASThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 10 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:02 UTC.
55 flood, 10 flash flood, 9 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
Hwy 1812 is closed on the Vancleve community due to high water.
Water is covering the road at mile marker 1 on Hwy 315 east of Morris Fork.
The Finley Fun Center in London has flood water surrounding the building with people inside. The Fire Dept. is on the scene.
Sally's Branch Road is flooded and not passable.
Flooding of roads and low lying areas was reported in the Clover Bottom area. No specifics were given.
Moderate flooding was reported in the low lying areas along Horse Lick Creek.
KY 1427 (Abbott Creek Rd) about 3 miles west of U.S. 23 was impassable with 2.5 to 3 feet of water estimated to be flowing over it. A vehicle was stranded in the flood waters in this location. This is a very flood prone area.
The flooding of low lying areas continues in the community of Clover Bottom. Water is rising, having gone up a few feet in the last 2 hours. There is now at least 1 to 2 feet over a roadway in the community (roadway unspecified).
Middle Creek is flooded and continuing to rise in the Dotson community, encompassing yards and low lying areas along the creek.
Spotter reported 5 feet of water now over KY 1427 (Abbott Creek Rd) just west of Prestonsburg. Water was also continuing to rise.
Highway 638 near Manchester has been closed due to flooding.
Highway 205 is flooded near Lee City.
Grassy Branch Creek is flooding over nearby roads, likely in the Grassy Branch community. A ditch approximately 5 feet deep is well overflowing.
Pictures from social media show water surrounding and inundating buildings in downtown Somerset.
Water is surrounding houses near the community of Dotson.
Pictures shared on social media show flood waters surrounding houses in the community of Garner.
Picture from social media shows a high school being inundated with water in the Buckhorn community. Water is flowing at a pretty good clip, with rushing water very evident.
Avawam Fire Department was dispatched in reference to a family trapped in their home by flood waters.
The Lee City exit on the Mountain Parkway is closed due to flooding.
Water was reported flowing over Hwy 199 in the McAndrews community.
A bridge was washed out on Spurlock Creek, and a car was stuck where the pavement had broken.
Raging water flowing down Abbott Creek Road with water rescues ongoing.
Highway 194 is impassable due to flood waters below Meathouse Road.
A mud/rock slide occurred on Skyline Drive in Hazard.
KY-451 is closed due to a mudslide at mile marker 1.4. This would place it just south of Chavies and north of the Lead Branch community.
Part of KY-1094 is closed due to high water across the road from the Red River near the Burkhart community.
KY-205 is closed between mile markers 2 and 6 due to high water across the road, making it impassable.
KY-191 is closed between mile markers 10 and 15 due to high water across the road.
KY-28 is closed between mile markers 0 and 1 due to high water across the road.
KY-499 is blocked due to high water across the road between mile markers 6 and 7, just SW of Irvine.
KY-594 is blocked between mile markers 7 and 13 due to high water across the road.
KY-191 is blocked due to high water over the road between Morgan County High School and the State Highway Garage.
KY-1645 through Ravenna is closed due to high water across the road from the nearby Kentucky River.
Pictures on social media show Riverside Christian School flooded. Water rescues had to take place for residents.
Part of KY-2102 is closed due to a mudslide which is blocking the road.
Route 1427 is blocked at several spots due to high water across the road near Abbott Creek.
Ky-1426 is blocked due to high water across the road near Tanyard Hollow (Branch) and Little Mud Creek.
KY-1426 is blocked due to a mudslide near Prater Creek, bringing power lines down with it.
Route 122 is blocked due to high water across the road along Bucks Branch (creek).
Route 122 is blocked due to high water across the road near Hall Funeral Home.
Route 122 is blocked near the Dollar General store due to high water over the road between Hi Hat and Wheelright Junction.
KY-404 is blocked due to high water across the road near the community of David.
KY-7 is blocked in several spots near the Lackey and Wayland communities due to high water over the road.
A mudslide is blocking one lane on KY-1499 at mile marker 3.
Route 194 is blocked due to high water across the road near German Bridge Campground.
Portions of KY-825 are closed due to high water across the road near the Riceville community.
All 3 lanes of US-460 are blocked at mile marker 22 due to a mudslide.
KY-11 South is closed between mile marker 3 and 6 due to high water across the road.
KY-30 east is closed between mile marker 11 and 13 just outside of Booneville due to high water across the road.
A mudslide is blocking the road along KY-1372 at mile marker 3.
A mudslide is blocking one lane of KY-40 in the community of Williamsport.
KY-2025 is closed between mile marker 5 and 6 due to high water across the road south of Booneville.
KY-777 is blocked due to high water across the road along Turkey Creek.
KY-979 is blocked due to high water across the road near the Mud Creek Clinic just south of Grethel.
KY-1210 is blocked due to high water across the road near Stephen's Branch.
KY-52 is closed in Ravenna between mile markers 9 and 10 due to high water across the road.
Water rescues are ongoing this morning in Paintsville as the river continues to rise.
Water was covering the U.S. Highway 23 ramp to KY Highway 40, making it impassable.
KY-7 is closed between mile marker 23 and 24 due to high water across the road.
U.S. 460 is closed between mile markers 4 and 5, as well as between mile markers 7 and 8, due to high water across the road.
KY-708 south is closed between mile markers 3 and 4 due to high water over the road near the community of Tallega.
Water is inundating June Buchanan School and other portions of the Alice Lloyd College Campus in the Pippa Passes community.
Widespread flooding was being reported in and northwest of Mount Vernon.
KY-715 is closed between mile markers 0 and 1 due to high water on the road near Red River Gorge.
Several homes were reported having been flooded along the Kentucky River on KY-541 near the community of Lawson.
Flood waters washed out a portion of the road near the Blackberry Fire Department in Pike County.
An estimated 4.00 inches of rain fell in Pikeville, leading to a mudslide along Chloe Creek near the Pikeville City Elementary School.
Evacuations and high-water rescues are ongoing in the community of Garrett.
The intersection of KY Highways 577 and 3630 are covered by high water.
Water is over several portions of Quicksand Road in Jackson. Numerous homes and property are surrounded by or inundated with water, on both sides of the Kentucky River.
Park Road, including Kiwanis and Douthitt Parks in Jackson, is inundated with water from the Kentucky River.
A large portion of Oneida is inundated by flood waters due to the South Fork of the Kentucky River being in moderate flood stage.
KY Highway 468 in and around the Hatfield community is covered by water.
High water and widespread flooding are occurring throughout the community of Thelma, just east of Prestonsburg.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, March 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 938492, 938494, 938502, 938506, 938547, 938548, 938549, 938551, 938552, 938553, 938560, 938572, 938581, 938587, 938588, 938589, 938829, 938832, 938838, 938845, 938847, 938848, 938851, 938853, 938873, 938874, 938890, 938896, 938898, 938899, 938900, 938902, 938906, 938909, 938919, 938921, 938922, 938923, 938924, 938925, and more.