Drought conditions across northern and central New Mexico remained largely unchanged during the month of March 2021. March was a very active month for the state which saw several high impact winter storms affect the area, particularly the northern high terrain.
Every event with a place to put it; 41 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
Drought conditions across northern and central New Mexico remained largely unchanged during the month of March 2021. March was a very active month for the state which saw several high impact winter storms affect the area, particularly the northern high terrain. Despite this, snowpack levels across the state remained poor with snow water equivalent values below normal across all basins. Extreme to exceptional drought improved slightly to about 80 percent with about 53 percent deemed exceptional drought. The high terrain areas of northern and western New Mexico saw the highest precipitation amounts with totals of about 1 to 3 inches. However, lower elevations across central and eastern New Mexico received less. Northeastern New Mexico received precipitation amounts of about half an inch to one inch. The lower Rio Grande Valley and the southeastern plains received less precipitation amounts compared to the rest of the area with amounts generally less than half an inch.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 11:52 PM MST, 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1152 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 .UPDATE... The tightly wound, moisture-starved storm system across southern NM is much farther south than model guidance showed the past few days. Therefore, the bulk of any light snowfall and wind is expected to remain mostly south of our region. The exception will be from near Ruidoso to Roswell where an inch or two is still possible thru 18Z, especially along the east slopes of the Sacramento Mts. Updated PoPs and Wx to reflect lesser chances in most areas thru Monday morning. Guyer && .PREV DISCUSSION...1043 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021... .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions are forecast to persist at all TAF sites except for KROW, where MVFR to IFR conditions in snow are likely from pre-dawn through Monday morning. Mountain obscurations will occur overnight into Monday as well on the south central high terrain. && .PREV DISCUSSION...825 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021... .UPDATE... We have cancelled the wind advisory for the Middle and Lower Rio Grande River as winds have subsided and turned to the north. Will update the ZFP shortly. && .PREV DISCUSSION...242 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021... .SYNOPSIS... A moisture-starved system will continue to cross New Mexico through Monday morning. Any precipitation that occurs will be in the form of snow, but will be light, and will be focused from the Southwest Mountains eastward toward Ruidoso, Roswell and Portales overnight. Meanwhile, a back door cold front will race through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain this evening, resulting in wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph from Albuquerque southward within the Rio Grande Valley. Strong wind gusts are expected in the upper Tularosa Valley as well. Though it will remain cool across the southeast on Monday, a warming trend will begin elsewhere. The warming trend will continue and expand area wide on Tuesday and Wednesday. In fact, Wednesday's temperatures are expected to be above normal area wide. On Wednesday night and Thursday, a moisture- laden storm system will bring rain and high elevation snow to much of the area. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... A potent upper level low (548dam at 500mb) is taking shape across east central AZ, while a backdoor cold front is making southwest progress across NM. The combination of these two features would normally be a big weather-maker for our area, with the potential for both wind and winter weather impacts given the relative strength of the upper low. However, the preceding atmosphere is bone-dry with the 12Z KABQ upper air sounding showing a PWAT of 0.12" (well below normal) and current surface dewpoint temperatures observed in the single digits. Given the extremely dry atmosphere, very little measurable precipitation is forecast overnight into Monday. The exception is across our southern tier of forecast zones, generally from the southwest mountains east to the southeast plains, where sufficient moisture combined with deformation on the north side of the eastward progressing upper low will result in some accumulating snowfall. Expect 2-4" across the peaks, with lesser amounts at lower elevation locales such as Socorro, Ruidoso and Roswell. Sub-advisory amounts are forecast, so will not be issuing a winter weather advisory at this time. However, wind impacts will be significant enough this evening with an easterly canyon/gap wind for an advisory from Albuquerque south through Socorro, including the upper Tularosa Valley and Carrizozo. Snow will linger across south central and southeast NM through mid day Monday before the upper low departs into far west TX and the Panhandle. Monday will be colder most areas and generally 10-20 degrees below normal. Skies will clear out Monday night and give way to near-ideal radiational cooling with lows forecast 5-15 degrees below normal. LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... An upper level ridge will build over the state on Tuesday while a surface lee side trough develops. The combination will yield temperatures 10 to 20+ degrees warmer than on Monday. A few westerly breezes will be noted from Clines Corners to Santa Rosa, but otherwise, a beautiful day is in store. Little change is expected on Wednesday as the ridge will remain overhead, but temperatures will continue to climb. All areas are expected to be above normal. On Wednesday night, an upper level low will shift over CA from the Pacific. It will continue to shift east-northeast through Thursday morning to Utah, before then shifting east and then southeast over Colorado and the Texas Panhandle Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Abundant Pacific moisture will stream in ahead of the system, and in fact, PWATs should be 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal. So, unlike the current storm system, there will be plenty of moisture to work with. Precipitation should begin across the west Wednesday evening, before expanding and becoming steadier across much of the northwest half of the area Thursday. There has been some discrepancy regarding how far north the system will be on Thursday, either centered over the Four Corners by mid day or closer to Salt Lake City, but either way, 700 mb temperatures look to be fairly warm. Thus, snow can be expected across the higher elevations, while rain is likely across the lower elevations on Thursday. One exception will be across far northwest NM where a mix at lower elevations will be possible. A few thunderstorms are also not out of the question across southern areas. Precipitation will shift across eastern areas Thursday night before diminishing Friday morning. After the system departs, strong northerly winds can be expected on the back side of the system across eastern NM on Friday. Another upper level ridge is in store for Saturday, then deterministic models diverge for the upcoming weekend. The ECMWF has been consistently showing a fast moving low crossing northern NM early Sunday, but other models show a quieter pattern, and ensemble guidance is better aligned with these other models as well. Will leave minimal PoPs in across northern NM for now. 34/11 && .FIRE WEATHER... The combination of a backdoor cold front and upper level low will impact the area through Monday with colder temperatures, locally windy conditions and limited chances for wetting precipitation. Specifically, southern portions of the area may accumulate a few inches of snow. A warming/drying trend will kick-off Tuesday under the influence of a low-amplitude ridge, with a mixed bag of poor- good vent rates. A moistening/cooling trend will begin Wednesday night and continue through Thursday as a fairly moist Pacific low moves over the region and brings good chances for wetting precipitation favoring northern New Mexico. A high amplitude ridge will follow Friday into Saturday, with another warming/drying trend. The latest medium range model solutions are at odds with the next system, which may bring a round of wetting precipitation to the northern mountains and strong winds elsewhere as early as Sunday. 34 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 406 AM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 NMZ201>241-011200- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama- Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood- Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands- Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains- Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands- 406 AM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A cold but moisture limited storm system will bring light snow accumulation starting in the northern and western mountains today, then becoming widespread tonight. A few inches of snow are expected in the mountains along and east of the continental divide, and at lower elevations along and south of I-40. A back door cold front will precede the precipitation today, so snow will be able to accumulate on roads tonight resulting in an icy commute for central and southern areas Monday morning. In addition, east canyon wind gusts are forecast to reach 50 mph within the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley and upper Tularosa Valley tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Monday, snow will linger, especially across east central and southeast areas where additional accumulation is expected. Storm total accumulations should reach an inch or two, except up to 3 inches in the mountains. Wednesday night through Thursday night, a warmer and moister storm system will cross from the west with rain showers, snow showers, and some thunderstorms. A few to several inches of snow accumulation will be possible in the mountains, as well as a few inches at lower elevations near the Colorado border Thursday night. The potential exists for north wind gusts up to 45 mph with a back door cold front on the far eastern plains Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. 44
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
41 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Extreme to exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Extreme to exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Extreme to exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Extreme to exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Extreme to exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Severe drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Extreme to exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Extreme to exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Extreme to exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Extreme drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Extreme to exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Extreme drought conditions from February 2021 improved slightly in March with eastern portions of the area improving to severe drought.
Extreme to exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Extreme to exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Extreme to exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Extreme to exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Extreme to exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Extreme drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Extreme to exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Extreme to exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Exceptional drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Severe drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Severe drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Severe drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
Severe drought conditions from February 2021 continued in March.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, March 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 941389, 941390, 941391, 941392, 941393, 941394, 941395, 941396, 941397, 941398, 941399, 941400, 941401, 941402, 941403, 941404, 941405, 941406, 941407, 941408, 941409, 941410, 941411, 941412, 941413, 941414, 941415, 941416, 941417, 941418, 941419, 941420, 941421, 941422, 941423, 941424, 941425, 941426, 941427, 941428, and more.