Drought in Texas, March 1 to 22, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1030 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR conditions area currently being observed at all
aerodromes with BRO and HRL expected to drop to IFR conditions
over the next hour or two. Expect MVFR ceilings to prevail at MFE
much of the night with IFR prevailing over HRL and BRO.
Precipitation chances will increase Monday morning at MFE and by
midday at HRL and BRO with periods of MVFR and IFR ceilings.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 525 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Current satellite and surface observations are
showing VFR and HRL and MFE with MVFR at BRO. A cold front will
begin to move through Deep South Texas overnight will lowering
ceilings ahead of the front. This evening HRL and MFE will fall to
MVFR conditions with this lingering overnight then falling to IFR
early Monday morning then returning to MVFR by midday. MVFR at
BRO will fall to IFR overnight into midmorning Monday before
returning to MVFR midday. Precipitation chances will increase as
the front nears the aerodromes by midmorning for MFE and late
morning to midday for HRL and BRO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 505 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest marine discussion below.

MARINE...A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the Laguna
Madre into midday Monday. Fog is currently developing across the
Laguna Madre and will become dense this evening and overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/

SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): The combination of boundary
layer mixing and strong differential heating between the warm inland
temperatures and the cool waters of the Laguna Madre/Gulf waters
caused strong and gusty south to southeast winds to develop along
the coast, which began late this morning. The strongest winds have
occurred right along the I-69E/U.S. 77 corridor in Cameron and
Willacy Counties. Hard to say when this strong pressure gradient
will weaken, but model trends suggest winds will be decreasing
through the second half of the afternoon. Will continue to monitor
for an extension of the current Wind Advisory for inland Cameron,
Willacy, and Kenedy Counties, which is scheduled to expire at 3 PM
CST.

The main headline and challenge in the short-term period is the
approaching cold front that is forecast to push through the district
on Monday morning. Warm and muggy temperatures will continue this
evening and through the overnight period, with overnight lows in the
mid-upper 60s in most locations. Because the front will be passing
through in the morning, the temperature forecast has been a little
tricky, especially for Monday afternoon. Temperatures are expected
to briefly warm up ahead of the front, at least across the Rio
Grande Valley, with high temperatures likely occurring in the
morning. However, temps will gradually decrease once the front
pushes through. The front may not push through the lower Rio Grande
Valley until midday or early afternoon. If this is true,
temperatures may be a little bit warmer than forecast. Widespread
rainfall chances are looking fairly good across the area along and
behind the cold front. Any rainfall will be helpful, but not
expecting any drought-busting amounts with this front, with general
amounts around a tenth to a quarter of an inch. There could be a few
thunderstorms in the heavier showers, which may produce heavier
amounts.

Cooler weather is in store on Monday night, with strong 1031 mb
surface high pressure building into west Texas Monday evening.
Despite clouds having a hard time clearing, modest CAA will produce
low temperatures into the upper 40s and lower 50s on Monday night,
with isolated to scattered showers lingering, mainly along the
coast.

Finally, marine dense fog will persist until the cold front pushes
through on Monday afternoon/evening. A marine Dense Fog Advisory
remains in effect until noon Monday for the nearshore Gulf waters
out to 20 nm. A Dense Fog Advisory may need to be added later this
afternoon for the Laguna Madre. It's possible that dense fog may
push into South Padre Island later this afternoon, as well. Will
continue to monitor.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Saturday): A cold front will be pushing
off the Texas coast on Tuesday morning as a 500 mb low sweeps across
the Southern Plains. Rain chances will have mostly pushed offshore
on Tuesday morning along the frontal boundary, leaving northerly
winds and cooler temperatures in its wake. Modest CAA will cap highs
in the lower to mid 60s on Tuesday and drop lows into mid 40s to
lower 50s on Tuesday night. Surface high pressure will move eastward
and an onshore flow will return by Wednesday evening, increasing
surface moisture and moderating temperatures, with a gradual
warming trend through the end of the workweek.

The next Pacific 500 mb low will traverse across the southwestern
CONUS late in the week, and an associated weak surface low will form
near the Texas Panhandle on Friday, bringing a weak cold front into
central Texas. However, the models still disagree on the progression
of this front. The GFS has it completely dissipate, while the ECM
still brings it through Deep South Texas and the RGV late Friday
night. Regardless, heading into the rest of the weekend, winds will
become more easterly as broad ridging sets up over the eastern
CONUS, moderating temperatures and increasing surface moisture once
again. Have left slight PoPs on Friday, but this will largely depend
on the progression of the cold front.

MARINE (Tonight through Monday Night): Dense fog continues to be
observed in the nearshore Gulf waters this afternoon. A Dense Fog
Advisory has been extended for the nearshore Gulf waters through
noon Monday. An expansion of the advisory may be needed for the
Laguna Madre later this afternoon. A cold front will be pushing
through Monday afternoon and the northerly winds behind the front
should help clear out any remaining fog. Winds will remain light to
moderate out of the southeast ahead of the front this evening and
Monday morning, with low to modest seas. Winds will gradually
increase behind the front and Small Craft Advisories may be needed
by Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday through Saturday...Small Craft Advisories will
likely be needed on Tuesday in the wake of a cold front. Marine
conditions will then improve and remain favorable through Friday
morning with light to moderate easterly winds and low seas. Beyond
Friday, the forecast remains tricky as a cold front possibly
approaches the area...but models continue to show wide discrepancies
concerning this potential front, so stay tuned for updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  68  74  48  62 /  10  60  50  20
BROWNSVILLE          69  77  49  64 /  10  60  50  20
HARLINGEN            67  74  47  64 /  10  60  40  20
MCALLEN              69  74  50  66 /  10  60  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      68  73  48  67 /  10  60  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  71  51  59 /  10  60  50  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ130-132-135-150-
     155.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68-McGinnis/Aviation

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
535 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

TXZ248>257-351-353-011030-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
535 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a high risk of rip currents at the beaches of South
Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach.

Dense fog over coastal waters may move inland tonight impacting
portions of Cameron and Willacy counties. Visibilities may lower
to one-half mile or less at at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

An elevated risk of rip currents is expected Tuesday and again
next Friday night and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-011030-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
535 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the Laguna Madre
and the Lower Texas Gulf Waters through Noon Monday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the Laguna Madre
and the Lower Texas Gulf Waters through Noon Monday.

Small Craft Advisories may be needed along the Lower Texas Coast
Monday night through Tuesday in wake of a cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.