During the month of March, the southwest Texas Panhandle and areas south and west on the High Plains continued to slip deeper into drought. Soil moisture was a big concern going through the month as farmers had to start planning for the planting season.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AMA wrote it up.
During the month of March, the southwest Texas Panhandle and areas south and west on the High Plains continued to slip deeper into drought. Soil moisture was a big concern going through the month as farmers had to start planning for the planting season. The long duration of drought thus far in some of the areas around the combined Panhandles had created concern even for irrigated fields, as well water has been declining greatly. Not to mention the very little hope of planting in fields not irrigated where soil moisture has been poor to non-existent. A few storms and even a late season snow storm brought some moisture to the area. The northern parts of Randall County in Texas and Cimarron county in Oklahoma saw some improvements from these events. However, Deaf Smith County in Texas missed out on a lot of the moisture.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Amarillo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 10:45 PM CST, 1 hour 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1045 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 .AVIATION...06Z TAFS... VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Winds will stay out of the north for the most part but should remain at or below 10kts. Skies mostly clear with a few high clouds. However, possible broken mid level clouds at KAMA with a weather system moving south of the Panhandles. Do not expect there to be any changes with this system to the flight categories at KAMA. Weber && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 237 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tomorrow Night... 20Z WV satellite shows an upper trough over the Four Corners, a broad upper high over the SE GoM, with a resulting area of enhanced southwesterly flow over the CWA. WV satellite also shows an intrusion of very dry air aloft around the base of the Four Corners trough. 12z AMA RAOB measured parched air through much of the troposphere while upstream RAOBs - DDC being upstream in the surface to 800mb layer due to northerlies and ABQ upstream above 800mb due to the southwesterly flow - also showed relatively dry air in these layers, with the smallest dewpoint depression at ABQ measuring 7C at 600mb and at DDC measuring 4C right at the surface. Tonight into tomorrow, the Four Corners trough will transition to an upper low as it heads eastward to W TX. While subtle timing differences remain, guidance has largely converged on a solution that brings this feature across W TX to our south, with the previously stronger NAM relenting and now depicting the 500mb low bottoming out at 561 dam with a slight southward trend. Best QG forcing for ascent and 700/850mb frontogenetic zones thus should remain to our south for much of the event, although a weaker zone of 700mb frontogenesis may linger across our far south and southeast during the day Monday. That being said, progged moisture quality is poor, as to be expected given the dry antecedent conditions described above. Given all this, have sharply reduced PoPs, sky cover, and QPF compared to previous forecast. On the subject of snow, with the cold core of the upper low passing to our south, most guidance reasonably shows above freezing temperatures at the surface and 850mb, so now think that rain would be the favored precipitation type in the unlikely event that any occurs. Have thus removed deterministic snow amounts from the forecast, with only a small snow mention in far southwestern Deaf Smith County Monday morning, retained due to collaboration concerns. Ferguson LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday... Zonal flow aloft will setup in wake of departing low pressure system Tuesday as more of a progressive split flow takes shape at 500mb. Weak mid level height rises can be expected through Wednesday with transient/weak ridging downstream of the next western CONUS trough. This will result in above average warmth and few clouds, along with some occasional breezy winds due to weak lee surface troughing. With the exception of Friday and Saturday, 850mb temperatures are progged to stay well above climatology through the extended period, so below average temperatures are unlikely through at least Thursday keeping the area fairly mild for this time of year. Model data continues to be in reasonable agreement with the next storm system which may bring precipitation to the area Thursday through Friday. The progged evolution of the 500mb pattern shows a cutoff low splitting off of the northern stream flow in the Pacific Ocean, diving south, and merging with a developing wave in the southern stream flow off the coast of Baja/southern CA. The jet streak associated with the resulting closed low is progged to weaken some as it advances eastward across the southwest CONUS and up over the Four Corners region by Thursday. However, this system does tap into some moisture in the mid and upper levels which will support increasing chances for precipitation Thursday into Friday, especially for areas that can recover some low level moisture ahead of the system. Model and ensemble PWAT anomalies indicate a maximum across the eastern and especially northeastern zones Thursday evening into Friday morning (although there are some timing differences here). Thermodynamic profiles support a predominant precip type of rain, but 850mb temperatures do fall on the backside of the system Friday with a cold front, yet stay above 0 degrees C. Thus, there is no snow in this forecast, but it can't completely be ruled out. A slight chance for thunder was added Thursday evening and overnight based on limited instability mainly across the Texas Panhandle. If everything comes together just right, by the time the system moves out of the area on Friday night some locations could pick up a decent amount of rainfall. Ward && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 27 48 24 62 30 / 0 10 10 0 0 Beaver OK 21 54 24 63 27 / 0 5 10 0 0 Boise City OK 18 48 23 62 27 / 0 5 5 0 0 Borger TX 27 53 27 66 32 / 0 5 5 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 24 51 23 65 28 / 0 10 5 0 0 Canyon TX 27 48 23 62 29 / 5 10 10 0 0 Clarendon TX 32 49 27 59 32 / 0 10 10 0 0 Dalhart TX 19 48 20 63 25 / 0 5 5 0 0 Guymon OK 20 52 24 64 27 / 0 5 5 0 0 Hereford TX 25 47 22 63 28 / 5 20 10 0 0 Lipscomb TX 24 53 26 62 29 / 0 0 10 0 0 Pampa TX 26 50 26 62 30 / 0 5 5 0 0 Shamrock TX 31 52 27 59 30 / 0 10 10 0 0 Wellington TX 33 52 27 59 30 / 0 10 20 0 0 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && 89
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Amarillo TX 245 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-010845- Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb- Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson- Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth- Palo Duro Canyon- 245 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms on Thursday night into Friday morning mainly across the Texas Panhandle. Severe storms are not expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Going into March the far southwestern portion of the county was in severe drought conditions (D2). Slowly things started to improve as the area in D2 shrank bit by bit after thunderstorms on the 13th and 16th and a late winter storm on the 17th that dropped very wet snow.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 949535.