Drought conditions worsened over South Texas during the month due to below normal rainfall. Exceptional drought developed over Webb County.
Every event with a place to put it; 15 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CRP wrote it up.
Drought conditions worsened over South Texas during the month due to below normal rainfall. Exceptional drought developed over Webb County. Extreme drought conditions spread into the coastal plains during the month.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Corpus Christi, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 10:52 PM CST, 1 hour 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1052 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021
.AVIATION...
A mixed bag of LIFR to VFR conditions to start this TAF forecast.
LRD and COT have remained VFR longer than was initially thought
and with model guidance seeming to slow the front down slightly,
will continue the forecast with MVFR ceilings by early Monday
morning. There is still potential for some IFR ceilings for these
sites, but confidence is low. CRP ceilings have managed to remain
MVFR for some time but with showers expected to develop, ceilings
should reduce to IFR. These are likely to be reduced to LIFR near
daybreak. ALI and VCT have already dropped to IFR ceilings and we
do not expect much improvement these sites any time tonight. They
could experience brief periods of LIFR ceilings through the night
and into Monday morning. A wind shift to the north with showers
and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will be possible with the
frontal passage late tonight through tomorrow. Areas across the
north and along the coast could begin to see some isolated showers
within the next hour. MVFR visibility is expected in and around
areas of precipitation. Showers will move southeast through the
area, moving offshore 04Z Tuesday. Ceilings will gradually lift
behind the front, resulting in MVFR to VFR conditions for all
sites.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 537 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/
AVIATION...
MVFR to IFR ceilings persist across the Coastal Plains and points
to the east, with VFR conditions over the Brush Country and Rio
Grande Plains. Expect all sites will experience lowered ceilings
tonight as a cold front approaches from the north. Coastal sites
and the Victoria Crossroads could experience some fog tonight as
the sea fog rolls onshore. Showers and the occasional
thunderstorms will begin to develop tonight ahead of the cold
front, reducing visibility and ceilings to IFR/LIFR across the
area. Conditions will likely remain IFR Monday as the cold front
passes, with the exception of COT where colder, drier air may
filter in near the end of the TAF period.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 350 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
Satellite imagery shows the mid to upper level low forming over
eastern Arizona this afternoon. Models are in agreement with the
upper low becoming cutoff and slowly moving across New Mexico
Monday and then through the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma Monday
night. A short wave trough over northern Mexico tonight will
move into south-central Texas on Monday.
The cold front over north-central Texas this afternoon will
move southward and reach the northern Brush Country by 08Z and
be near Bloomington-Mathis-Bruni line by 12Z Monday. Increasing
lift associated with the front and the short wave trough passing
by to the north will lead to an increase in convection late
tonight. The cold front will be through the area by 16Z Monday and
through the coastal waters by late afternoon. Expect the high
temperatures will occur early in the day with readings falling
through the day except for a brief warm up late over the western
counties. Scattered showers will continue behind the cold front
through the day with rain chances decreasing over the western
Brush Country by late afternoon. There is enough elevated
instability to warrant mentioning a slight chance of thunderstorms
late tonight into Monday.
Rain chances will continue to decrease from west to east Monday
evening with drier air moving into the western counties overnight.
Breezy conditions will occur along the coast as high pressure
builds into the region. Lows will fall to below normal levels
with reading in the mid to upper 40s Monday night.
LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Isolated showers will diminish over the coastal counties Tuesday
morning as an upper level ridge builds in over the region. Max
temperatures are expected to be in the 60s on Tuesday as cold air
continues to advect into the area behind the front. Surface high
pressure will loom over the eastern portion of the state, before
continuing an eastward progression Friday . Moisture returns to
the area as this surface high pressure positions itself to our
east and onshore flow brings in warm moist air through the end of
the work week. Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Wednesday,
with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. The warming trend will
continue into Thursday with highs in the low 70s to near 80s. A
slight chance of precipitation returns late Friday ahead of
another cold front that will push through the area early Saturday.
The highest chance of precipitation is anticipated to be near the
coast and into the Victoria Crossroads where PWAT values are
greatest. Expect temperatures to cool slightly behind the front,
leaving highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s through the weekend.
MARINE...
Dense fog will cover the bays and near shore waters from late
this afternoon through Monday morning. A weak to moderate onshore
flow this evening will become weak later tonight as a cold front
moves into south Texas. The front will move into the Gulf waters
Monday morning and clear out the dense fog by the afternoon.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Monday ahead and along the cold front. Small Craft advisory
conditions are expected from late Monday afternoon through
Tuesday across the offshore waters as northerly flow becomes
strong in the wake of the cold front.
Small Craft advisory conditions will continue through Tuesday
morning across the offshore waters as northerly flow strengthens
to moderate to strong levels in the wake of the cold front.
Scattered showers will decrease from west to east Tuesday and
offshore flow will weaken through Tuesday afternoon and evening. A
weak to moderate northeast flow Wednesday morning will become
easterly in the evening as the high pressure ridge moves to the
east. A weak to moderate onshore flow and isolated showers are
expected Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 67 68 49 63 45 / 40 60 40 20 0
Victoria 59 60 46 61 40 / 70 70 50 20 0
Laredo 61 63 47 66 46 / 40 60 10 10 0
Alice 64 66 47 64 42 / 50 60 20 10 0
Rockport 64 65 48 62 46 / 40 60 50 20 0
Cotulla 56 57 46 67 44 / 50 50 10 10 0
Kingsville 67 68 48 63 43 / 30 60 30 10 0
Navy Corpus 66 66 48 61 50 / 30 60 40 20 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Monday For the following
zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
out 20 NM.
&&
LS/77...AVIATIONHazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 351 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-011000- La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval- Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio- Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg- Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands- Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands- Calhoun Islands- 351 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight Isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight. Areas of dense fog will be possible for the coastal counties tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-011000- Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas- Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor- Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM- 351 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas Coastal Waters. .DAY ONE...Tonight Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the bays and nearshore waters through tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the bays and near shore waters Monday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible late Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
15 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Exceptional drought conditions developed over the county during the month.
Extreme drought conditions expanded over all of the county during the month.
Extreme drought conditions continued over the county during the month.
Extreme drought conditions developed over the southern part of the county during the month with severe drought over the northern part.
Extreme drought conditions developed over the southern part of the county during the month with severe drought over the northern part.
Extreme drought conditions developed over the county during the month.
Extreme drought conditions developed over the county during the month.
Extreme drought conditions developed over the central and southern parts of the county during the month with severe drought over the northern part.
Severe drought conditions continued over the county during the month.
Severe drought conditions continued over the area during the month.
Extreme drought conditions developed over the area during the month.
Extreme drought conditions developed over the area during the month.
Extreme drought conditions developed over the area during the month.
Severe drought conditions developed over the area during the month.
Severe drought conditions developed over the area during the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 949426, 949427, 949428, 949429, 949430, 949431, 949432, 949433, 949434, 949435, 949436, 949437, 949438, 949439, 949440.