A plume of monsoonal moisture continued to stream overhead with a general weakness in the upper level flow of the atmosphere. Strong heating on the afternoon of the 25th allowed isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across the entire region.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
A plume of monsoonal moisture continued to stream overhead with a general weakness in the upper level flow of the atmosphere. Strong heating on the afternoon of the 25th allowed isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across the entire region. Instability values on the order of 1000 J/kg with the strong heating were able to generate storms that produced isolated wind gusts and damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 25, 1:21 PM CST, 1 hour 4 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 221 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 .SHORT TERM... Westerly surface winds across the South Plains early this afternoon should back to the south by 21z. Weak inhibition should erode allowing widely scattered showers/thunder to develop as advertised by CAMS taking advantage of around 1000 J/KG MLCAPE. Favored area of concentration according to the HRRR and the 12z Tech WRF run is from the Caprock Canyon/nrn Rolling Plains region, developing farther south/southwest along an axis through the central South Plains into areas S/SW of Lubbock as cap erodes around 21z (4 pm). Given weak winds aloft and fairly high PWATs (1.3 - 1.7 inches), isolated cells could produce some brief heavy rain. along with gusty winds and occasional lightning. Activity should decrease rapidly with loss of heating around 01-02z (8-9 pm), although did keep slight chance pops across the SE Panhandle overnight. Similar situation with slightly less coverage on Monday, and much less activity across the northeast where pops fall below mentionable. Temperatures/dewpoints near persistence, which are also very near climatological averages. James .LONG TERM... We'll keep a slight chance of showers and t-storms going Monday evening, as models continue to show some kind of convectively induced mesoscale vortmax sliding southwest from the Panhandles into eastern NM by evening, and this may generate enough lift despite evening stabilization to maintain any ongoing activity. Tuesday appears to be mostly dry however, with the upper high in close proximity and the mid-level moisture plume shunted farther north into the plains. Tuesday's highs should climb a few degrees area-wide with mid to upper 90s on the Caprock and upper 90s to around 103 or 104 in the Rolling Plains. By Wednesday, the center of the upper-high should be in the central plains and this should place our forecast area more squarely under easterly flow aloft. Thus we expect daytime temperatures to back off some from Tuesday's readings. In addition, a weak disturbance undercutting the ridge will bring some mid-level moisture back into the area. The ECMWF is a little weaker and farther south than the GFS with this westward-moving wave, and the forecast remains dry for now, but there is a chance that we might need to raise PoPs across the south. Beyond Wednesday, the upper-ridge looks like it will expand south and east, becoming centered roughly over north-central Okla by Friday. This should bring hot (the heat does not appear exceptional at this time) and mostly dry weather to the forecast area to close out July. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 06/33
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 136 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 TXZ021>044-261845- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 136 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across the outlook area this afternoon into this evening, with the most coverage found over the far southern Panhandle into northern portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains. The strongest storms that develop will be accompanied by frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Slim storm chances will exist Monday afternoon and evening, favoring the southern Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains. Brief downpours and strong outflow winds will accompany the most intense activity. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Lubbock TX 321 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 TXZ026-252045- Childress TX- 321 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CHILDRESS AND NORTHERN COTTLE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT... At 320 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5 miles southeast of Childress, moving east at 30 mph. Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Childress, Tell and Kirkland. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service office in Lubbock Texas. && LAT...LON 3431 10040 3449 10040 3456 10000 3431 10000 TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 255DEG 25KT 3437 10019 SINCAVAGE
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 131 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:22 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Observer reported that strong straight line winds destroyed their carport, blew the doors off of a barn, and broke off several large tree limbs on their property.
Photo from social media showed a large pine tree uprooted from strong straight line winds.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Olton measured severe wind gusts from 1736 CST to 1737 CST. A peak wind gust of 67 mph was measured at 1736 CST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 966138, 966140, 966141.