Deep monsoon moisture remained over northern Arizona with strong thunderstorms across the area. An area of low pressure moving over the area from the east help form thunderstorm complexes that brought widespread moderate to heavy rain to northern Arizona.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Deep monsoon moisture remained over northern Arizona with strong thunderstorms across the area. An area of low pressure moving over the area from the east help form thunderstorm complexes that brought widespread moderate to heavy rain to northern Arizona.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 24, 7:58 PM MST, 5 hours 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 758 PM MST Sat Jul 24 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue through Sunday night with the threat of flash flooding as well as a chance of strong to severe storms. The area weather returns to a more typical monsoonal pattern Monday with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the rest of next week. Cool daytime temperatures will warm to near normal by the middle of next week. && .UPDATE...MCS currently moving southeast central-northern Arizona this evening. Along with a few more discrete cells out ahead moving into Yavapai County. Severe threat with these storms has mostly diminished, as concerns switch to flash flooding from heavy rainfall. Showers and thunderstorm are moving quickly across the area, however very heavy rainfall rates are occurring. Guage reports have already shown rainfall amounts of up to an inch in 30 minutes with the showers, along with radar estimates of 2-3 inches per hour. Much of the activity should diminish around 3 am, with only a few lighter showers lingering through the rest of the morning. Updated PoPs to incorporate current radar trends and latest hi- res guidance, otherwise forecast remains unchanged. && .PREV DISCUSSION /305 PM MST/...Mid level warming has quieted the activity today across the region and cleared out the skies to allow some daytime heating. The next wave of thunderstorms is moving into the eastern areas along the New Mexico border with very cold cloud tops, intense lightning activity and elevated radar returns indicating likely severe thunderstorms. This wave will continue to move through the region this afternoon and overnight. Expect the heavier activity to reach the Flagstaff area late this afternoon into the evening and to move into Yavapai County this evening and overnight. With the soils saturated across much of the region, Flash flooding will continue to be the main concern with these storms. This being said, modeled soundings have the level of free convection extending to 150 mb and CAPE exceeding 1000. Given the added energy from the diurnal heating today, these storms will have increased likelihood to become severe thunderstorms with strong winds and large hail. If you need to be out tonight, check the weather forecast and know the terrain where you'll be. Flash floods are particularly dangerous and night due to the flood waters being difficult to see and judge its extent. If you see any flood waters, stay away, turn around, don't drown. Model guidance indicates the possibility for one to two more waves to move through before this synoptic pattern dissipates. Another strong wave will likely impact the area Sunday afternoon with impacts similar to what we will see today and tonight. A less certain wave Sunday night into Monday morning looks to be the end of this very wet pattern. The weather pattern will shift back into a more traditional monsoonal pattern with afternoon thunderstorm lasting into the evening hours driven by diurnal heating. Precipitable water forecast remain right around one inch with the wind streamlines remaining generally southerly off the Gulf of California for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Showers and thunderstorms continue through 12Z, with much of the activity remaining south and west of a KPRC-KSOW line. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again after 18Z. Areas of MVFR/IFR will be possible within the heaviest downpours. Gusty and erratic winds possible near thunderstorms, with winds remaining light otherwise. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through Sunday night with a significant threat of flash flooding. Widespread wetting rain is likely with embedded areas of heavy rain. Storm chances decrease from east to west Monday. Tuesday through Thursday...Weather returns to a more typical monsoonal pattern with afternoon thunderstorms diminishing through the evening each day. Daytime temperatures will warm to near-normal by mid-week. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening FOR AZZ006>008-011>018- 037-038-040. && PUBLIC...Humphreys/DB AVIATION...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...DB For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1249 AM MST SUN JUL 25 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0710 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 WSW PINON 36.10N 110.23W
07/24/2021 NAVAJO AZ PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTS FLASH FLOOD ALONG NAVAJO
ROUTE 4 WEST OF PINON RODEO. FLOOD WATER WAS
ACROSS ROAD ESTIMATED 6 IN - 1 FT DEEP.
REPORT VIA VIDEO ON FACEBOOK.
&&
ETPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1253 AM MST SUN JUL 25 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1058 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 SE DOWNTOWN FLAGSTAFF 35.17N 111.61W
07/24/2021 COCONINO AZ PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTS FLASH FLOOD. RIVER VALLEY
ROAD AND HEROLD RANCH ROADS IMPASSABLE FOR
TRAVEL DUE TO WATER ON ROAD.
&&
ETPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1255 AM MST SUN JUL 25 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 WSW CHERRY 34.57N 112.15W
07/24/2021 M2.26 INCH YAVAPAI AZ TRAINED SPOTTER
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 2.26 INCHES.
FLOODING REPORTED IN SPOTTERS YARD. DURATION
1-2 HOURS.
&&
ETPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1257 AM MST SUN JUL 25 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0150 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 W SAINT JOHNS 34.50N 109.45W
07/24/2021 APACHE AZ PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTS BIG HALLOW WASH ABOUT TO
OVERTOP BRING AT HIGHWAY 61 WEST OF SHOW
LOW.
&&
ETPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
111 AM MST SUN JUL 25 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0559 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 NE POLAND JUNCTION 34.49N 112.24W
07/24/2021 YAVAPAI AZ OFFICIAL NWS OBS
AGUA FRIA GAUGE NEAR DEWEY HUMBOLDT REPORTED
A 6.5 FT RISE.
&&
ETPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
150 AM MST SUN JUL 25 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0710 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 ESE SAINT JOHNS 34.51N 109.36W
07/24/2021 APACHE AZ PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTS FLASH FLOOD AT BRIDGE ON
HIGHWAY 191 DUE TO LITTLE COLORADO RIVER.
ROAD IMPASSABLE.
&&
ETThe Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 155 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 08:51 UTC.
9 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Big Hollow Wash almost overtopped the bridge at Highway 61 west St Johns.
Kirkland Creek was flowing 4.5 feet deep (estimated) and was flowing over Highway 89. Water had begun to recede by 0630 AM.
The Agua Fria River came up 7.2 feet at the gauge on Tara Springs Road near Black Canyon City. The flood waters came from as far away as Dewey (20 straight miles).
Local Law Enforcement reported that Polacca Wash was overtopping State Route 264 just east of First Mesa.
Major flash flooding was reported on a widely used dirt road between Whippoorwill and Low Mountain.
Heavy rain dislodged rocks that fell on Highway 89 between Flagstaff and Sedona (switchbacks near FR-237).
Heavy rain caused the Verde River to rise 2 feet (near the junction of the Verde River and Sycamore Creek).
A vehicle was caught in the flood waters of Dinnebito Wash near Route 6720 and Saltwater Wash. There was one fatality and two others trapped in the water. This was located about 72 air miles downstream from the headwaters of this wash.
A vehicle was caught in the flood waters of Dinnebito Wash near Route 6720 and Saltwater Wash. There was one fatality and two others trapped in the water. This was located about 72 air miles downstream from the headwaters of this wash.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flash Flood, Coconino | 2021-07-25 | Male | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct | |
| Flash Flood, Coconino | 2021-07-25 | Male | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 979259, 979431, 979429, 979433, 979435, 979436, 979438, 979437, 991869.