The combination of abundant tropical moisture, moderate instability and a weak upper level disturbance produced thunderstorms with heavy rainfall across the Concho Valley and Heartland. A few of the thunderstorms produced flash flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJT wrote it up.
The combination of abundant tropical moisture, moderate instability and a weak upper level disturbance produced thunderstorms with heavy rainfall across the Concho Valley and Heartland. A few of the thunderstorms produced flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 12, 11:16 AM CST, 1 hour 44 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 256 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Short range models focus their convection today along a dissipating frontal boundary from the south of San Angelo east to Brady to San Saba. Convection mainly develops in the Brady/San Saba area in the morning, then moves west with daytime heating. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are indicated north to I-20 and south to I-10. Afternoon MUCAPES are around 1600 J/KG from the Concho Valley and east, so while a severe storm is possible, the main threats will be locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. The convection will mainly diurnal, with storms ending by 7 PM. Highs will range mainly in the upper 80s to around 90, with lows upper 60s to around 70. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 A slight pattern change to warmer and drier weather looks to set up by Tuesday. The upper-level ridge out west will continue to wobble around and fluctuate, while otherwise staying centered over the Desert Southwest. Global models show a series of 500mb shortwave troughs traversing the northern and central US through much of the week. Despite some instability during this time period, there is no well-defined focus for convection each day, except for a few small afternoon pop-up showers. As a result, skies will be sunnier with fewer clouds and lower rain chances, along with steady south flow at the surface. This should lead to high temperatures reaching closer to the mid 90s, which is right around our normal for mid July. Over the weekend, global models are showing the potential for some intrusion from a few shortwaves over the central US. This may bring some low rain chances across the northern fringe of our CWA, but the best possibilities look to stay confined to the Panhandle and Red River. Otherwise, temperatures will remain right around normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 At least scattered convection will continue to develop this afternoon across West Central Texas, mainly the KBBD and KJCT terminals but at least close to the KSJT and KSOA locations as well. Most of this will end by sunset and leave VFR conditions areawide for the evening and well into the overnight hours. Will likely see at least patchy MVFR cigs redevelop late tonight and into Tuesday morning across the southern and eastern terminals, but probably not as widespread as in recent days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 89 71 92 71 / 30 5 0 0 San Angelo 89 69 93 70 / 30 5 0 0 Junction 91 69 92 69 / 40 5 0 0 Brownwood 87 70 93 70 / 50 5 0 0 Sweetwater 88 69 91 69 / 20 5 0 0 Ozona 90 69 91 68 / 30 5 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...07
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service San Angelo TX 620 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139- 140-154-155-168>170-131130- Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho- Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford- Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble- Mason- 620 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly across the Concho Valley and eastward towards Brady. Occasional lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be the main hazards with these storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The threat for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening. Please relay any information about observed weather to the NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1240 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 TXZ154-155-170-121830- Mason TX-McCulloch TX-San Saba TX- 1240 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MCCULLOCH... NORTHEASTERN MASON AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN SABA COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT... At 1240 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Voca, moving east at 10 mph. Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Camp San Saba, Fredonia, Camp Air, Katemcy and Voca. LAT...LON 3091 9930 3108 9927 3101 9899 3082 9907 TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 284DEG 8KT 3097 9917
The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 138 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:01 UTC.
3 flash flood, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Department of Highways reported stranded motorists on county roads and in the town of San Saba due to flooding. Also, water was over the intersection of US 190 and Farm to Market Road 1031 in San Saba.
Law enforcement reported stranded cars at the intersection of College Hills and Sunset.
An NWS Employee reported road impassable due to flood waters and the intersection of Westover Terrace and Forest Trail.
An NWS Employee reported water across the road at Sunset Drive next to the pond. The road is blocked off with barricades to stop motorists from crossing.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 975052, 975055, 975053, 975054.