A stationary front served as a focus for showers and thunderstorms across North Texas. A few of the showers and thunderstorms resulted in flooding and wind damage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
A stationary front served as a focus for showers and thunderstorms across North Texas. A few of the showers and thunderstorms resulted in flooding and wind damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 12, 11:54 AM CST, 26 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1254 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Tuesday Evening/ The primary focus of the short term forecast period is the heavy rain ongoing across Central Texas through the afternoon and possibly into the early evening hours. Isolated to scattered storms are anticipated across North Texas. Otherwise, tranquil weather is anticipated. Convection earlier this morning developed rather quickly as modest ascent atop remnant outflow in an environment characterized by PWATs in excess of 1.8" (125-150% of normal). Given the slow storm motions and efficient warm rain processes, the potential for event total rainfall amounts in the 1-4" range (with isolated higher amounts) seems quite plausible. Higher resolution model guidance continues to struggle, but 00/12 UTC HREF Probability Match Mean (PMM) QPF offered usable output for the forecast. PoPs of 90-100% are advertised through mid-afternoon with the greatest threat for widespread heavy rain near and south of the US HWY 84 corridor. I would anticipate the need for a few additional flood advisories to address what will likely be flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas. However, the flash flood threat will remain, especially for some of the more urbanized areas of Central Texas (namely along the I-14 corridor). The severe weather threat across Central Texas is low. Showers and storms will likely continue to develop near the I-20 corridor where deeper cumulus has been noted closer to the true stationary frontal boundary. Here there could be a higher potential for stronger downburst winds with the greater temperatures and higher cloud bases. Dewpoint depressions are also approaching 20 degrees which may also support the enhancement of evaporative cooling below cloud base. Radar trends will be monitored. Showers and storms should diminish through the afternoon and evening across the area as the main upper trough sinks southward and a more subsident airmass overspreads the region. Bain && .LONG TERM... /Issued 216 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021/ /Tuesday and Beyond/ An upper trough will sidle off to the east while a ridge noses in from the west at the start of the period. Though the strongest part of the ridge will remain off to our west, it will still hamper convective development across the area compared to today and the past several days. Will hence limits POPs in the Tuesday- Thursday time frame to the southeast zones (and in the slight chance category) where seabreeze intrusion may kick off isolated afternoon convection. A weak trough will then move through the Southern Plains Thursday night and Friday, which will warrant slight chance POPs along the Red River. Shear will be quite weak and any storms which occur late Thursday into Friday should remain below severe limits (with most places remaining dry). By the weekend, North and Central Texas will again become placed between a ridge across the west and a trough over the Great Lakes. The resulting north flow will be weaker compared to this past weekend, but should still result in low-end rain chances across the region each afternoon. Otherwise, typical July temperatures are expected for the duration of the forecast with lows in the 70s and highs in the 90s. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18 UTC TAF Cycle/ Concerns---Convective chances...mainly at Waco. Poor flying conditions are anticipated at Waco due to TSRA. Confidence is high in TSRA over at least the next 2 to 3 hours with activity diminishing by 2300 UTC near the airfield. Intermittent MVFR cigs and possibly MVFR vsby will be possible. Outflow and perhaps the true stationary front will lift northward this afternoon, resulting in a return to south flow for D10 terminals by the late afternoon and evening push. This outflow/front may kick off a few showers across southern parts of D10 airspace. Instability is not significant, but some TSRA INVOF GKY...DAL and D/FW still appears probable and VCTS will be advertised through the afternoon hours. Impacts to east and southbound departures are anticipated and VCTS at the JEN and CQY cornerposts may cause some issues. Bain && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 92 75 95 75 94 / 20 10 5 0 0 Waco 87 73 91 73 91 / 80 30 0 0 0 Paris 88 70 91 73 92 / 10 10 10 0 0 Denton 92 73 95 73 95 / 20 10 5 0 0 McKinney 91 73 93 74 92 / 20 10 5 0 0 Dallas 92 76 94 77 94 / 20 10 5 0 0 Terrell 90 72 91 73 92 / 20 20 5 0 0 Corsicana 88 73 91 74 91 / 40 20 5 0 0 Temple 87 72 91 71 91 / 100 30 5 0 5 Mineral Wells 90 71 93 71 92 / 20 10 5 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 917 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-131245- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 917 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. There is a chance of storms today generally along and south of Interstate 20. The main concern will be heavy rainfall which may result in pockets of flash flooding. Frequent lightning, and gusty winds will be additional threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Slight chances of storms can be expected each afternoon, but severe weather is unlikely. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Bain
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 119 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 TXZ119-121900- Dallas TX- 119 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DALLAS COUNTY UNTIL 200 PM CDT... At 118 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Lancaster, moving southeast at 5 mph. Winds in excess of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Desoto, Cedar Hill, Duncanville, Lancaster, Glenn Heights, Hutchins, Wilmer, Ovilla and Ferris. LAT...LON 3255 9653 3255 9692 3268 9693 3268 9667 TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 327DEG 6KT 3260 9676 Bonnette
The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 48 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:22 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
An emergency manager reported power lines down, large trees down, and fence damage along and near Bluegrove Road.
An emergency manager reported power lines down along Spinner Road and Stain Glass Drive.
An emergency manager reported flooding of city streets in Kaufman and multiple water rescues. Deep flooding was reported along North Monroe Street. Approximately one foot of water was above the curb on Washington Street between 8th Street and 12th Street. Water rescues were located along West 5th and 6th streets.
A roof was partially removed from a building at the Fort Worth Stockyards.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 970941, 970942, 970940, 970943.