On the morning of the eleventh, a cold front became nearly stationary across the South Plains into the southern Rolling Plains. This boundary served as a forcing mechanism for thunderstorm development during the early afternoon.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
On the morning of the eleventh, a cold front became nearly stationary across the South Plains into the southern Rolling Plains. This boundary served as a forcing mechanism for thunderstorm development during the early afternoon. The environment was characterized by MUCAPEs between 2,000-3,000 J/Kg with bulk shear values of 35-40 kts which was sufficient for scattered severe thunderstorms. Above average moisture was also in place which allowed for very efficient rainfall production.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 11, 12:55 PM CST, 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 155 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 .SHORT TERM... Upper level high pressure system remains parked over southern Nevada this afternoon keeping the FA in north-northeasterly flow aloft. At the surface early morning convection has moved out of the area and now afternoon convection is initiating in far eastern NM. This convection is currently making a run for the far southwestern FA counties underneath an SPC severe thunderstorm watch. Occasional breaks in the clouds will allow high temperatures to reach the mid to upper 80s and given the continued above average PWATs, and dewpoints in the 60s convection will likely continue and spread in coverage. Coverage will be concentrated near and southwest of a lingering surface boundary hung up from about Muleshoe to about Jayton. Model forecast instability shows MUCAPEs between 2000 J/kg to 3000 J/kg, bulk shear values to 35-40kt. DCAPE values of over 1300 J/kg will be present across the far southwestern Southern Plains resulting in the possibility of strong downburst winds and gusty outflow winds. Similar to recent storms given the present instability indices storms that do develop now into the evening could become strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. CAMs continue to suggest that convection will come to an end during the overnight hours. Tomorrow the 597 dm upper level high to our west will expand back towards the area as south to southwesterly surface winds return. This will ultimately lead to drier and slightly warmer conditions to start the work week. .LONG TERM... By Tuesday morning the upper level flow will be less amplified as the low across the midwest lifts off to the north and the area of high pressure across the southwest U.S. continues to retrograde. Through the day on Tuesday flow aloft will remain northerly which will keep the forecast area dry. Wednesday will see a shortwave move across the Northern Plains with upper level lift extending all the way into northern NM by the evening. This should lead to convective development across the higher terrain of NM. This activity may try to make a run towards the southwestern Texas panhandle however it should be dissipating as it does hence the forecast area may remain dry. Upper level flow will back across the area out of the northwest late this week through the weekend as upper level ridging expands from the desert southwest into Saskatchewan. This will keep the potential for late afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible each day. Temperatures will remain seasonable during this time frame (low to mid 90's) as heights aloft vary little each afternoon. /WCI && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 28/58
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 127 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 TXZ021>044-121830- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 127 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Strong to severe rain showers and thunderstorms will continue through late this evening into early Monday morning across the extreme southwestern South Plains. Locally heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flash flooding, especially in low lying and poor drainage areas will be possible. Some of these storms could also be capable of producing severe wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail, but the overall severe weather threat will be localized. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Another chance for strong thunderstorms remains possible Thursday into next weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 79 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:09 UTC.
1 heavy rain, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet near Sundown reported 1.57 inches of rain falling within 25 minutes, with 2.45 inches of rain within one hour.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Sundown measured severe wind gusts of 65 mph from 1325 through 1330 CST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 963794, 963791.