Flash Flood and Dust Storm in New Mexico, July 11, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
248 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance aloft will move north to south across the area this
afternoon and evening, bringing a chance of strong to severe
storms to the Borderland. High pressure will shift westward over
California through Thursday night. Moisture at the surface and
northerly flow aloft will continue to help form thunderstorms,
especially along and west of the Continental Divide. A trough will
swing across the area on Thursday, influencing an increase of
thunderstorms chances heading into Friday and through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday...
By around 00Z, a convective complex of sorts seems to emerge, fueled
by the perturbation in the northerly flow moving north to south
across southern NM. 0-6km EBWD of ~30 kts (plus or minus), and
instability (~500-1000j/kg of ML CAPE) should be enough to semi-
organize this complex, with strong gusty winds and heavy rain the
primary threats, including the El Paso and Las Cruces metro,
somewhere between 6 and 10 PM. Much of the activity should move
through by ~06Z, in cohorts with the disturbance ejecting into N
Mexico. A few lingering showers and storms will be possible,
especially near the International Border, but the severe weather
threat will likely be over, or shortly thereafter.

Through Monday at 6PM, much in the way of convective activity will
cease, with area mtns, especially the Gila, favored. Could see a few
stray storms across the CWA however, mainly across any elevated
terrain and west of the Continental Divide. Although moisture and
instability will be modest to decent, especially east, a bit of a
warm noise at ~700 mb may be partially to blame for lack of
convection. That and maybe the atmosphere being overworked from
Sunday. Temps will be in the mid 90s across the area and winds 10 to
20 mph outside of convection on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday
The period starts out relatively quiet on Tuesday, as drier air
aloft begins to filter in from the east/northeast. The Gila and
Sacramento Mountains could see an isolated shower or storm due to
orographic enhancements. Outside of the mountainous regions, dry
air aloft will suppress and inhibit the formation of storms.

An upper level high centered over southern Nevada will drift
toward the southwest over California on Tuesday. The dome of high
pressure will meander and gradually weaken over California
through at least Thursday night and into Friday. Westward movement
of the high pressure will allow for moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico to flow back into the area beginning Wednesday. As
mentioned earlier, when the high pressure moves over California,
this results in persistent northerly flow aloft over the CWA.
Northerly flow aloft and a decent surge of moisture will increase
rain chances on Wednesday. Storms will be more favorable to the
west than the east, perhaps along and west of the Continental
Divide.

Models continue to show an upper level trough racing across the
Northern Great Plains on Thursday. The trough axis will be the
focus as it swings through the area. This should help increase
shower and thunderstorm coverage across the CWA. As the trough
axis continues moving eastward on Friday, models are hinting at a
piece of energy cutting off from the main trough axis. The
uncertainty is where exactly this piece of energy sets up. Where
it sets up could make a big difference in thunderstorm chances and
coverage. For now, the POP grids for Friday-Sunday show isolated
to scattered chances areawide based on that uncertainty explained
above. Temperatures throughout the long term period will be right
at to slightly below normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
SKC to SCT080 most locations currently at 18Z. TSRA developing 19
to 21Z over area mtns, then VCTS lowlands and terminals AOB 21 to
00Z. TEMPO VRB25G40KT 3SM TSRA BKN040CB added at all TAF sites
generally from 23 to 03-04Z as confidence in impacts is at least
moderate for most sites. +RA, lowering VIS, and strong gusty winds
the main threats as this activity moves into the terminals and
lowlands. Cannot rule out some BLDU as well. Most SHRA and TSRA
diminishes after 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relatively moist conditions will continue across the area with min
RHs 20 to 30% lowlands and 30 to 50% mountains through the end of
next week. Expect daily thunderstorm activity to be confined mostly
to area mountains and west of the Continental Divide through mid
next week, with an uptick in activity most locations possible late
next week and into next weekend. Winds expected to remain light
outside of convection, but high mixing heights will foster a mix of
Good to Very Good ventilation most areas (locally Poor to Fair where
convection sets up). Threats with thunderstorms this upcoming
work week will be heavy rain and to a lesser extent gusty winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 70  93  74  95 /  50  20  20   0
Sierra Blanca           68  88  65  88 /  30  10   0   0
Las Cruces              65  91  70  93 /  60  20  30   0
Alamogordo              63  91  67  92 /  60  20  30   0
Cloudcroft              48  69  50  69 /  60  30  20  20
Truth or Consequences   66  90  69  91 /  50  40  50  30
Silver City             60  86  63  85 /  50  50  50  50
Deming                  65  93  69  94 /  50  20  30  20
Lordsburg               68  95  70  93 /  40  30  40  30
West El Paso Metro      71  94  74  96 /  60  20  20   0
Dell City               66  91  67  93 /  40   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            73  94  71  95 /  30  10   0   0
Loma Linda              65  87  67  87 /  40  10   0   0
Fabens                  73  95  73  95 /  40  10   0   0
Santa Teresa            68  92  71  93 /  60  20  20   0
White Sands HQ          66  90  72  92 /  60  20  30   0
Jornada Range           63  89  69  91 /  70  20  30   0
Hatch                   65  92  69  93 /  70  20  30  20
Columbus                67  91  72  93 /  50  20  20   0
Orogrande               65  91  69  92 /  50  20  20   0
Mayhill                 54  78  55  77 /  60  30  20  20
Mescalero               56  79  55  79 /  60  30  30  20
Timberon                53  77  54  77 /  60  30  20  10
Winston                 56  86  58  84 /  60  50  50  50
Hillsboro               62  88  66  88 /  50  40  50  30
Spaceport               64  89  67  90 /  60  30  30  20
Lake Roberts            54  87  58  85 /  50  50  60  50
Hurley                  61  88  63  88 /  50  40  50  30
Cliff                   63  94  61  94 /  40  50  50  50
Mule Creek              57  89  64  89 /  40  50  50  60
Faywood                 63  87  66  87 /  40  40  50  30
Animas                  69  94  69  93 /  50  30  30  30
Hachita                 66  92  68  93 /  50  20  30  20
Antelope Wells          67  93  69  93 /  50  20  30  20
Cloverdale              65  90  66  88 /  60  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

35 DeLizio/01-Fausett/38-Rogers

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1035 AM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-121645-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
1035 AM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the region come midday to
early afternoon across the mountains and drifting into the
lowlands into the evening and early overnight. Damaging winds and
large hail will be the primary concerns, in addition to potential
areas of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday
Typical monsoon thunderstorms expected through mid next week,
focusing on the mountains and west of the continental divide with
isolated chances across the rest of the lowlands. Isolated
instances of heavy rain and gusty winds possible. There may be an
uptick in the convective coverage the latter half of the week into
the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Trained spotters are encouraged to submit reports of severe
weather and flooding if it occurs.

JD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
348 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021

NMZ414>416-112215-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet NM-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet NM-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet NM-
348 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM MDT...

At 348 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lake Mescalero, moving south at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Mescalero and Apache Summit.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If on or near Lake Mescalero, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
south central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3319 10536 3315 10570 3330 10573 3330 10549
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 342DEG 22KT 3328 10565

GRZYWACZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
357 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021

NMZ401-402-112230-
Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range NM-Upper Gila River Valley NM-
357 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM MDT...

At 356 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles northeast of Buckhorn, moving south at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Buckhorn, Gila, Mogollon Box Campground and Portions of the Gila
Wilderness.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southwestern New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3303 10882 3321 10871 3321 10854 3320 10847
      3297 10845
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 014DEG 19KT 3317 10855

GRZYWACZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
445 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021

NMZ402-408-409-112315-
Eastern Black Range Foothills NM-
Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range NM-Sierra County Lakes NM-
445 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SIERRA COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM MDT...

At 445 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Winston, moving south at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winston, San Miguel, Chloride, Hermosa and Chise.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
south central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3320 10742 3311 10772 3345 10782 3348 10763
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 338DEG 29KT 3342 10769

GRZYWACZ