The active pattern continued to bring cold fronts through the region in early January, and rainfall continued to be confined to the coastal areas and offshore, leaving much of Deep South Texas in a continued dry pattern. These conditions led to the expansion of Extreme (D3) Drought Conditions across nearly all of Zapata County, and maintained the western half of Starr County.
Every event with a place to put it; 9 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
The active pattern continued to bring cold fronts through the region in early January, and rainfall continued to be confined to the coastal areas and offshore, leaving much of Deep South Texas in a continued dry pattern. These conditions led to the expansion of Extreme (D3) Drought Conditions across nearly all of Zapata County, and maintained the western half of Starr County. Severe (D2) Drought conditions expanded into southeastern Hidalgo County and western Cameron County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 31, 11:30 PM CST, 30 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1130 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...Satellite imagery and surface observations show
mostly clear skies across Deep South Texas tonight, with moderate to
gusty northwest winds. Some high and mid level clouds will move in
Friday afternoon, but VFR conditions are expected to prevail over
the next 24 hours. Winds will begin to drop off through early this
morning and will be light though the day on Friday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 533 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020/
DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...Clear skies and gusty northwesterly winds have been
left in the wake of this morning's cold front. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail for the next 24 hours as drier air continues
to filter into the area. Winds will remain gusty for a couple
more hours this evening before becoming light overnight.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020/
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): Improving conditions are
expected as we head into the New Year. Strong northwesterly winds
will continue through this evening with a Wind Advisory in effect
until 6 pm for Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, Brooks and Kenedy
counties. Winds will begin to diminish this evening through the
overnight becoming light to moderate. Lows tonight will drop into
the mid 30s in the northern Ranchlands and low 40s across the
Lower Valley under mostly clear skies.
For New Year's Day, high pressure will continue to build across
the area as a 500 mb low moves out of northwestern Mexico and into
northwest Texas. This will allow cold air to continue to filter
into the region with light northwesterly winds. Afternoon high
temperatures will top out in the low to mid 60s across Deep South
Texas with overnight temperatures falling to the upper 30s north
and the upper 40s to low 50s near the coast.
LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday): High pressure will reside
over the CWA Saturday. Temperatures on Saturday will rise into
the 60s, a few degrees below seasonal normals, after a cool start
Saturday morning. As surface high pressure slides east Saturday
night, light northwest winds will calm owing to a weak pressure
gradient. Supported by efficient radiational cooling, look for
low temperatures Saturday night into Sunday morning to range from
the mid 30s inland to the middle 40s in coastal areas. A weak mid-
level shortwave trough will kick across the Southern Plains and
Texas on Sunday as high pressure begins to edge east. Local
effects will be minimal, but return flow winds will start to make
a comeback. Temps on Sunday and Sunday night will be close to
seasonal norms. Subsequently, mild weather will start the work
week, and a warming trend will continue into Tuesday as southeast
to south winds stiffen.
The next feature of interest will be a shortwave trough/mid-level
low moving into the Four Corners region on Tuesday. The feature
will eject into the southern High Plains Tuesday night, where
pressure falls over Oklahoma and northern Texas will support
moderate to breezy southeast winds Tuesday night. Streamer showers
will develop along the coast Tuesday night, with the potential
for a slight chance to low end chance of rain eastern sections on
Wednesday. A surface front will wrap around the mid level low over
north Central Texas on Wednesday, moving through the CWA later in
the day. Drier air in its wake should clear things out Wednesday
night and bring a clear, cool Thursday morning to the forecast.
Resulting Thursday morning temperatures will take an abrupt 10
degree hit from the previous night, dipping from above normal to
near normal. Thursday high temperatures will be lower than the
warm Wednesday highs touching the 80s, but still above normal in
the 70s.
MARINE:
Now through Friday Night: Adverse marine conditions will continue
this afternoon and evening across the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters
with strong northwesterly winds. A Gale Warning is in effect until
10 pm tonight for both the nearshore and offshore Gulf waters and
a Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 10 pm for the Laguna
Madre. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed overnight tonight into
Friday on the Gulf waters for continued elevated seas. By Friday
afternoon and evening conditions will improve as seas begin to
lower.
Saturday through Tuesday Night...Small craft will need to exercise
caution on the Gulf Saturday since northwest to north winds will
be in the 15 to 20 knot range. After Saturday, however, conditions
will be quieter, with winds and seas continuing to lower.
Southeast to south winds and low to moderate seas will develop
Sunday night through Tuesday night as high pressure centered over
Louisiana and the north Central Gulf slides farther east.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 41 63 48 65 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 41 63 47 66 / 0 0 10 0
HARLINGEN 39 64 46 66 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 40 65 45 67 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 37 66 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 48 61 54 61 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ130-132-
135.
Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ170-175.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ150-155.
&&
This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
63-KCHazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1018 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020 TXZ248>257-351-353-020430- Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo- Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron- Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo- 1018 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight There is a high risk of rip currents at local beaches. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Elevated rip current risks at local beaches will continue Friday through Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-020430- Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX- Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX- Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm- Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm- Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm- 1018 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of Mexico and The Laguna Madre. .DAY ONE...Tonight A Small Craft Advisory continues for the Laguna Madre until midnight tonight. Small Craft Advisories are in effect on the lower Texas coastal waters out 60 nm through tonight and into Friday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 9 AM Friday on the lower Texas coastal waters out 20 nm, and until 12 PM Friday on the coastal waters from 20 to 60 nm. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
9 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
With little to no rainfall across the Rio Grande Plains through January, Extreme (D3) Drought continued across all but a very small sliver of extreme eastern Zapata County to begin 2021, and would cover all of the county by mid month.
Just enough rainfall fell at times from late December 2020 through January 2021 to maintain a pocket of Moderate (D1) Drought across central and western Hidalgo County through mid January. However, a pocket of little to no rain that extended west to IH-69C, including the populated McAllen metropolitan area, would slide Severe (D2) levels westward to include these areas and the nearby farmland by the 19th.
With modest rainfall countered by a number of dry cold fronts in January, Severe (D2) Drought held firm in western Cameron County through January. Just enough rainfall fell along and east of IH-69E in early January to nudge to D2 area to west of a Harlingen-Los Indios line on the 12th, which would hold through month's end.
Severe (D2) Drought continued across all but northern Brooks County through the first few days of January. A stripe of rainfall as the calendar turned from 2020 to 2021 was enough to improve conditions in northern and western Brooks County with the next Drought Monitor on January 5th.
Severe (D2) Drought covered all but a sliver of northeastern Jim Hogg County to begin 2021, but a band of heavy rain at the turn of the calendar would produce improvement, though brief, in eastern Jim Hogg County for the monitor on the 5th. Worsening drought would arrive a week later, however, toward the Rio Grande Plains section of the county.
Extreme (D3) Drought would cover the western two-thirds of Starr County, with Severe (D2) Drought elswhere, to begin 2021. A band of moderate rain at the turn of the calendar year would cause brief but minor improvements over eastern Starr by January 5th.
Severe (D2) Drought would cover northern Hidalgo County to begin 2021, though a welcome band of moderate rainfall at the turn of the calendar would improve conditions mainly west of US 281/IH-60C by the January 5th monitor.
Severe (D2) Drought would prevail across western Willacy County through January. Some beneficial rains along and east of US 77/IH 69E on the 9th/10th would slightly shrink the area to west of the highway from central Willacy, and occasionally light rains thereafter would maintain the status quo thereafter.
Spotty rain near the northeast Kenedy County coast was enough to improve conditions there; otherwise, Severe (D2) Drought maintained its grip on the western two-thirds of the county through January 11th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, January 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 930736, 930737, 930739, 940738, 940754, 940759, 940771, 940785, 940786.