Conditions favorable to wildfire spread were in place across much of the Deep South Texas ranch country. Cured ground fuels remained in place across much of Brooks County owing to various freeze events from weeks prior, as well as lack of rainfall in a spot of southeastern Brooks County that led to Extreme (D3) Drought conditions at the time the fire ignited.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
Conditions favorable to wildfire spread were in place across much of the Deep South Texas ranch country. Cured ground fuels remained in place across much of Brooks County owing to various freeze events from weeks prior, as well as lack of rainfall in a spot of southeastern Brooks County that led to Extreme (D3) Drought conditions at the time the fire ignited. The North Jones Fire ignited on February 9th and continued until February 10th when it was 100% contained. The fire consumed around 4,000 acres.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 9, 4:48 PM CST, 5 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
448 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR skies currently, with higher ceilings and light
to moderate east to southeast winds. A strong elevated inversion
helped lock in mostly cloudy skies today as east winds contributed
to prolonged moisture return across the CWA. The additional
moisture will allow for another round of fog across much of deep
South Texas this evening and tonight. Winds will be a skosh
stronger as compared to last evening, so confidence in dense fog
development is slightly lower, but not impossible, especially
with dense marine fog still locked in place. However, ample low
cloudiness could be just as problematic, lowering ceilings to LIFR
overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021/
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): Partly to mostly cloudy
skies persist today as easterly winds contribute to prolonged
moisture return across the CWA. The additional moisture will allow
for another round of patchy fog to occur across much of Deep South
Texas this evening. Winds are expected to be a bit more moderate as
compared to last evening, so confidence in any areas of dense fog
developing is relatively low. The ample amounts of moisture will
also allow for a few showers to develop through the overnight and
early morning hours, mainly across northern portions of the CWA. A
few embedded midlevel disturbances will keep chances for showers in
the forecast through much of Wednesday, with a rumble of thunder or
two possible as well on Wednesday due to some developing
instability. Model soundings indicate a fair amount of capping
across the area so thunder may be extremely isolated at times, but
will include a mention given the progged instability by some CAM
models.
LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): There is still a lot of
uncertainty with the long-term forecast, especially Saturday
through Tuesday. An arctic cold front is still forecast to push
through the CWA Thursday afternoon, exiting the CWA around
sunset. Although there are still discrepancies with long-range
deterministic models with just how cold the air mass will be
behind the front, recent model runs have been trending cooler.
Anticipate lows dipping into the mid-upper 40s to lower 50s
Thursday night, with highs only reaching the upper 50s to lower
60s on Friday afternoon. In addition to the much cooler
temperatures, the front will bring a pretty good shot of showers
and perhaps isolated thunderstorms for most, if not all, locations
across Deep South Texas. The best PoPs will be along the front on
Thursday afternoon/evening. Chances will end west-to-east
overnight Thursday night and into Friday morning, with slight
chances lingering along the coast and offshore during the day on
Friday. Rainfall amounts will vary, but expect anywhere from a few
hundreths of an inch up to half an inch where the heaviest
rainfall occurs.
The focus then shifts to Saturday, when a secondary cold front (or
a secondary push of high pressure) infiltrates the area.
Temperatures will really plummet beginning Saturday evening/night
with strong and persistent CAA in place. Although slight
precipitation chances return for coastal locations on Saturday,
the chances will further increase and become widespread on
Saturday night as a modest shortwave trough pushes over South
Texas. Temperatures across the Northern Ranchlands and rural parts
of the RGV will gradually dip to near or below freezing by dawn
Sunday morning. PoPs will decrease Sunday morning as the shortwave
trough exits east. However, lingering moisture may cause a
mixture of rain, freezing rain/drizzle, and sleet to occur in
parts of the north and western parts of the CWA through Sunday,
with rain/showers for the rest of the area. Another, and stronger,
mid-level shortwave trough will approach Southern Texas Sunday
night. The setup for strong overrunning will once again occur over
a shallow arctic air mass Sunday night through Monday evening.
Forecast soundings show a potent warm nose in place between
900-750 mb, suggesting a mixture of freezing rain(drizzle) and/or
sleet. Monday will feature the coldest day-time temperatures in
the long-term period, with high temperatures in the low-mid 30s in
most locations. Meanwhile, Monday night is setting up to be the
coldest night in the long-term, with lows in the mid-upper 20s and
lower 30s for all inland locations.
Overall, there is still a lot of forecast uncertainty and there
will most certainly be changes to the forecast in later updates.
Stay tuned.
MARINE: Now through Wednesday Night...Marine fog has persisted
through much of the day today and currently does not show any
significant signs or trends of dissipating. Have extended the Marine
Dense Fog Advisory through 6 PM for now, and this may even need to
be extended overnight given the anticipated conditions. Aside from
fog, winds and seas will remain relatively favorable for mariners
with little to no significant changes from today’s conditions.
Thursday through Sunday Night...A pair of strong cold fronts will
cause adverse marine conditions through most of the long-term
period. The first front will arrive Thursday afternoon or early
evening, with strong northerly winds behind it. Seas will
gradually respond and rise to 6 to 8 feet on the Gulf by Friday
morning before decreasing some on Friday night. The second cold
front will push through during the day on Saturday. This front
will be a bit stronger than the front on Thursday, with higher
seas as a result, causing adverse to dangerous conditions through
Sunday night. Additionally, showers and isolated thunderstorms
will be possible through much of the forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 80 68 79 / 10 10 30 40
BROWNSVILLE 69 84 69 80 / 10 10 30 40
HARLINGEN 69 85 67 82 / 10 10 30 40
MCALLEN 69 86 68 82 / 20 10 30 40
RIO GRANDE CITY 68 87 66 83 / 20 20 50 40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 73 69 73 / 10 10 30 40
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ130-132-
135-150-155.
&&
This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
54-BHM/56-HallmanHazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 256 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021 TXZ248>257-351-353-102100- Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo- Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron- Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo- 256 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Patchy fog will be possible again this evening and overnight, especially across coastal areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday An elevated risk of rip currents is possible at the local beaches Thursday through Sunday. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed across portions of the northern ranchlands Sunday morning due to light freezing rain or freezing drizzle. A Wind Chill Advisory may be needed for portions of Deep South Texas and the mid to upper Rio Grande Valley Sunday morning and Monday morning, with wind chill values dipping below 20 to 30 degrees. A Freeze Watch may be needed across portions of the northern ranchlands Sunday morning and Monday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-102100- Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX- Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX- Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm- Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm- Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm- 256 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of Mexico and The Laguna Madre. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 6 PM CST across the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters out 20 NM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Patchy marine fog will be possible on Wednesday morning. Small Craft Advisories are possible along the Lower Texas Coast Thursday night through Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The North Jones Fire ignited on February 9th and continued until February 10th when it was 100% contained. The fire consumed around 4,000 acres through its duration. There were no reports of structural damage despite the large acreage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 950241.