Winter Weather in Texas, February 16, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
525 AM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings this morning. With light snow onset late morning
expect vsby and/or ceilings to decrease into IFR territory at
times. Stratus to hang in overnight even after the snow stops. IFR
category looking likely, especially at KLBB and KPVW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CST Tue Feb 16 2021/

SHORT TERM...
Focus this morning is on the next round of snow to affect the
forecast today and into tonight. An upper level short wave trough
just taking shape over the 4-corners region and supported by 150+ kt
jet streak nosing southeastward out of northern California and
Nevada will sharpen as it moves southeastward, progged to cross the
South Plains/Panhandle region tonight. Initial lift associated with
the initial piece of jet energy moving across southern New Mexico
later this morning is expected to begin spreading light snow across
the western counties between 15 and 18 UTC. Earlier indications
suggest a potential for some freezing rain as precipitation begins.
While that isn't out of the question, progged soundings suggest that
a warm nose near 800 mb will be quickly cooled as precipitation
falls through that part of the column with temperatures at that
level falling quickly below 0C, thus limiting threat from the
precipitation phase. As the jet streak moves steadily to the east-
southeast the light snow is progged to move generally eastward
across the forecast area. Focus for snow then shifts pretty quickly
northward this evening as the upper trough moves across northeastern
New Mexico and the dynamics focus across the Panhandle. Additional
snowfall looks mostly likely this evening across the northern row of
counties, tapering off after midnight.

Overall, dynamics associated with the initial lift do not look
terribly strong and duration looks on the order of hours rather than
most of the day. Thus, snowfall amounts for today are likely to top
out around an inch for most areas. Given a continuation of very cold
temperatures even an inch of snow could cause exacerbate
deteriorated road conditions. Will thus issue a Winter Weather
Advisory beginning at 9 am and continuing to 6 pm. The advisory may
need to be extended into the evening for parts of the far southern
Panhandle where another inch or so is possible as the last bit of
lift affects that part of the forecast area.

LONG TERM...
Above freezing temperatures are on the horizon, but we still need to
get through the next few days of exceptionally cold temperatures,
especially at night, with single digit/teen lows through Friday
morning.

Light snow will begin to taper off and shift east by early afternoon
Wednesday as an upper level trough deepens and expands across our
region, reinforcing more cold air through early Friday morning.
Daytime highs will climb back into the 20s and 30s tomorrow and
Thursday. By early Friday, ridging to the west will finally lead
to midlevel heights rising and our temperatures will begin to
moderate back into the 50s and 60s for Friday afternoon and the
weekend. The longwave pattern remains active, though certainly
lacking the extreme weather we've seen the past week. The ECMWF is
cooler than the GFS as we move farther out in the extended with
overall flatter upper level flow and less surface response to
shortwave ridging for the end of this weekend and next week. We
appear to break completely loose of the cold pattern by the
beginning of next week as temperatures return to near 70 next
Tuesday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
evening for TXZ021>044.

&&

07/55/07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
330 AM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

TXZ021>044-170930-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
330 AM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for all of the
South Plains area from 9 AM to 6 PM today for snow amounts around 1
inch. Additional snowfall will be possible across the extreme
southeastern Panhandle tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.