NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 13, 10:51 PM MST, 5 hours 9 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 13, 10:51 PM MST, 5 hours 9 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1051 PM MST Sat Feb 13 2021
.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE
WS020/25040-45KTs through around 15Z Sunday morning, beginning
with some veering of the winds as well. Sfc winds will be
10-15G20-25KTs at times Sunday, southwest at first then shifting
east to northeast with lowering CIGS 12-15Z. KTCS will have a
period of strong winds between 15-20Z as the cold air filters in.
Expecting VFR tonight, with -SHRA moving in 09-15Z, then a mix of
RA/SN 15-18Z with MVFR CIGS east of KDMN. KTCS will mix with SN
earlier, with KDMN staying mostly -SHRA. KELP/KLRU a mix of R/S,
then SHSN after 18Z. VIS will lower in any heavier RA/SN after
18Z. Expecting at least MVFR CIGS and VIS after 18Z through 06Z,
with IFR conditions in any SN/+SN.
&&
JD
.PREV DISCUSSION...247 PM MST Sat Feb 13 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
We will back to winter for most of the week. An upper trough and a
backdoor cold front bring rain, snow and colder temperatures to
the whole area. The Sacramento Mountains, the Gila region, the
Black Range, the Otero Mesa and Hudspeth County will experience
moderate to heavy snow. The greatest accumulations will be in the
Sacs and the Black Range with snow amounts up 9 to 12 inches.
Another system brings more chances for lowland rain and mountain
snow on Tuesday with the Sacs again receiving more snow. Fair
weather and warmer temperatures are expected for the end of next
week.
&&
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.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday Afternoon...
Today has been a day of transition across the Borderland as a weak
upper level low exited the region this morning and our next weather
system is inching closer from the northwest (and east). Some cooler
air has seeped into eastern Hudspeth County today from the strong
cold front that's stalled just outside of our CWA. Meanwhile, most
everyone else has warmed into the lower 60s under partly to mostly
cloudy skies thanks to high level clouds moving in ahead of the main
weather system. Winds have become breezy across the area and will
likely remain that way through the overnight period into Sunday as
winds increase at all levels aloft as the upper trough and an
associated jet max move in.
Precipitation is expected to move into the mountains later this
evening. Snow levels will be around 6500-7000 feet at this time,
meaning that the higher elevations will see snow. The difference
maker of this entire event will be the strong cold front moving in
from the east. Models have the front pushing into the Sacramento
Mountains around 5am or so, rapidly dropping snow levels as it does
so, which means all elevations of the Sacs will quickly changeover
to snow. Precip is expected to overspread most of the CWA by sunrise
Sunday morning, with a majority of the lowlands seeing the precip
fall as rain for the time being. What makes this forecast so tricky
and crucial is, once again, the exact timing of the frontal passage
at each location. Models have been trying to speed this up a tad
over the last 24 hours - if that trend continues anymore, it will
lead to higher snowfall totals than forecast. For now, the general
consensus is that the frontal boundary will penetrate into the upper
Rio Grande valley in Sierra County by 9/10am changing the precip
over to snow for places like T-or-C. The front then looks to move
into the rest of the Rio Grande valley around 11am/noon dropping
temperatures below freezing and changing precip over to snow. The
front will then continue progressing west across the area reaching
the AZ border later in the evening. Precip coverage is expected to
become more scattered after noon, with lowlands west of the
Continental Divide possibly being hard pressed for any precip in the
afternoon, thus warranting little to no snow accumulation. Current
snowfall forecast calls for the heaviest snow of 8 to 12 inches with
isolated higher amounts in the Sacramento Mountains, 6 to 9 inches
in the Gila region and Black Range, 3 to 6 inches in the Tularosa
Basin, Otero Mesa, and Hudspeth County. The trickiest area to
forecast for is along the Rio Grande valley because amounts depend
greatly on the exact timing of the front. For now, have 1 to 3
inches along the Rio Grande valley. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter
Weather Advisories have been issued for the respective areas. The
heaviest snowfall is expected to occur between roughly 5am and 6pm
in the mountains and noon to 8pm in the lowlands.
Aside from the snow, the most noticeable feature of this event will
be the temperatures. Sunday's high temperatures are expected to
occur around midnight tonight into possibly the morning hours since
temperatures are forecast to plummet behind the cold front. Think El
Paso and the Rio Grande valley will be at the freezing mark by mid-
day, with a 5pm temperature in the upper 20s. Temps will keep
tanking through the overnight hours before bottoming out in the
single digits out east and middle teens across most of the lowlands.
Roadways and sidewalks will become slick as they freeze due to the
cold temperatures, even in locations that see mostly rain.
Additionally, winds will be gusty through the day tomorrow and into
the evening and early overnight period. This will make it feel even
colder outside. Wind chill values are expected to drop to -10 to -15
degrees in the Sacramento Mountains Sunday night into Monday
morning, creating dangerously cold conditions for anyone/anything
that is left outside. Be sure to protect your pipes, plants, and
pets from this extreme cold. Wind direction will change throughout
the day as gusty westerly winds will persist west of the Rio Grande
valley for the first half of the day, then becoming easterly behind
the frontal passage. Western slopes of area mountains will see
stronger gusts as winds become easterly throughout the day. The
gusty winds may create patchy areas of blowing snow and reduced
visibility at times.
&&
32
.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Friday Night...
So, the winter storm continues on the long term portion of the
forecast. The trough axis is right to our east while the backdoor
cold front is all the way to the AZ border. Thus, snow is one of
the main hazards on Sunday night as moderate to heavy snow
continues in the mountains, while the lowlands receive light to
moderate snow showers. Another 1 to 3 inches will be possible
through early Monday morning when the winter weather advisories
and warnings expire. The frontal passage brings gusty winds that
appear to persist into the evening hours too, especially over far
west Texas. BL winds to up 30 kts and 850 mb winds up to 25 kts
are possible, which is close to advisory criteria. The west
slopes of the Franklins and the Hueco Mountains could have a few
stronger gusts.
The other main hazard is wind chill over Hudspeth and Otero
county on Sunday night and Monday morning. Temperatures will feel
below zero starting tomorrow evening in the Sacs and Hudspeth
county. By Monday morning, wind chills of -10 to -20F will be
possible in the Sacs, while Hudspeth county and the Otero Mesa
have wind chills between -5 to -15F. So, Monday morning will be
very cold. Below freezing temperatures will continue across most
of the area into the afternoon hours. MOS guidance indicates temps
rising above freezing by the late afternoon in the lowlands
including El Paso and Las Cruces, as the surface level winds
switch back to the west. But dropping again to below freezing
after sunset, but it should not be as cold due to the cloud cover
that persists through the night hours. One caveat about rising to
above is freezing is that it will depend on the amount of snow
that we receive, if we get a lot of snow on Sunday it may take a
bit longer to warm up.
The upper trough leaves by Monday afternoon. We get subsidence
behind this system which will stop any remnants of precipitation.
However, do not get comfy with the slightly warmer and drier air
on Monday afternoon as another system will be swinging down from
the northwest on Tuesday. This one is not as intense and brings
less amounts of QPF. However, the Sacs and the Gila region get a
second hit of snow. The Sacs may get another 6 inches of snow,
while the Gila may get another 3 inches. Drier conditions will
happen in the lowlands, but we will get gusty winds. The GFS and
the ECMWF at 850 mb have speeds of 25 to 35 kts. So, that is
something to watch out for. The lowlands will mostly get rain with
this system too. However, on Tuesday evening and night snow
levels should drop to 4 to 5 kft. So, we do have more chances for
snow in the lowlands. However, accumulations are expected to be
light.
Slight chances of precipitation will persist through Thursday
morning as this system is slower than the previous one. Once it
leaves the area, a northerly flow sets in and we slowly warm up
on Thursday afternoon. By Friday, the westerly winds near the
surface strengthen advecting warmer and drier air, which should
put us back to near normal temperatures on Friday and above normal
by Saturday.
&&
29
.FIRE WEATHER...
Storm system will move in from the west tonight through Sunday night
while a backdoor cold front also moves in from the east. This will
create wintry weather across the Borderland beginning in the
mountains tonight and across the lowlands Sunday morning. The
heaviest snow will occur in the Sacramento Mountains with 8-12
inches and isolated higher amounts, and in the higher elevations of
the Gila region with 6 to 9 inches. The Tularosa Basin down into
Hudspeth County are also expecting 3 to 6 inches. The lowest
confidence is along the Rio Grande Valley where the exact snowfall
amounts will depend on the timing of the cold front, but for now,
expected 1 to 3 inches. A few isolated rumbles of thunder will be
possible in the Gila region Sunday afternoon as well. Gusty winds
will remain elevated tonight through the day on Sunday, with an
easterly wind shift occurring from east to west across the area
behind the cold front. Temperatures will get colder throughout the
day on Sunday, and gusty winds will lead to wind chill values
dropping to -10 to -15 in the Sacramento Mountains overnight. The
precip should exit the area by sunrise Monday morning.
The next weather system will move into the area Tuesday and
Wednesday with another round of mountain snow and lowland rain.
Winds will be breezy once again, but temperatures won't be quite as
cold. We'll finally dry out starting Thursday with temperatures
quickly jumping back to well above normal. Min RHs will remain above
30-40 percent through Tuesday before decreasing below 20 percent by
Thursday. Vent rates will be excellent across western areas on
sunday and poor to fair in eastern locations, then poor to fair on
Monday before improving to good to very good Tuesday and
Wednesday.
&&
32
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 38 42 16 39 / 50 90 30 0
Sierra Blanca 28 33 7 36 / 50 100 50 0
Las Cruces 39 44 15 38 / 50 80 40 0
Alamogordo 33 38 9 31 / 70 100 50 0
Cloudcroft 14 21 -1 20 / 90 100 50 0
Truth or Consequences 35 40 16 39 / 50 80 40 0
Silver City 33 40 20 38 / 70 80 40 0
Deming 40 47 16 43 / 50 70 40 0
Lordsburg 38 49 18 47 / 50 60 20 0
West El Paso Metro 40 44 17 39 / 50 90 40 0
Dell City 20 26 2 32 / 60 100 40 0
Fort Hancock 32 41 10 40 / 50 90 40 0
Loma Linda 26 32 9 30 / 50 100 40 0
Fabens 34 41 12 40 / 50 90 40 0
Santa Teresa 39 45 13 38 / 50 90 40 0
White Sands HQ 37 43 16 37 / 60 90 40 0
Jornada Range 35 42 13 37 / 50 80 40 0
Hatch 37 45 16 42 / 50 80 40 0
Columbus 42 49 18 45 / 40 70 30 0
Orogrande 29 36 10 32 / 60 100 40 0
Mayhill 12 18 -3 31 / 80 100 50 0
Mescalero 16 24 -1 26 / 90 100 50 10
Timberon 16 23 0 26 / 80 100 50 0
Winston 29 39 9 38 / 60 80 50 0
Hillsboro 32 42 13 41 / 60 80 50 0
Spaceport 34 41 13 37 / 60 80 40 0
Lake Roberts 28 39 18 36 / 80 90 50 0
Hurley 33 43 13 41 / 60 70 40 0
Cliff 35 46 22 44 / 70 70 30 0
Mule Creek 32 43 25 42 / 70 70 30 0
Faywood 36 41 18 39 / 70 80 40 0
Animas 39 51 18 50 / 40 40 20 0
Hachita 38 49 15 47 / 40 50 20 0
Antelope Wells 38 49 20 49 / 50 60 20 0
Cloverdale 36 45 25 47 / 40 50 10 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 5 AM MST Monday for
NMZ403-408>411.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Monday for NMZ402-412>417.
TX...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 5 AM MST Monday for
TXZ418-419-423-424.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Monday for TXZ420>422.
&&
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