High Wind in Texas, December 24, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1219 PM CST Fri Dec 24 2021

.AVIATION...18z TAFS...
Mostly VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites, however MVFR
vis will be possible as winds pick up over the next 6 to 9 hours.
Winds will be gusting in the 35-50kt range for most sites through
00z, where they will relax a bit overnight, but are still expected
to be breezy in the 20kt range. Overall wind direction will be
mainly out of the west, with a slight southwest component. LLWS
will be possible, mainly at KGUY from 0-7z.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 325 AM CST Fri Dec 24 2021/

SHORT TERM...
The pressure gradient will tighten today as an upper level
disturbances translates from the Rockies onto the Plains today. High
clouds may limit the amount of mixing that will take place today.
However, still believe that some places across the western
Panhandles will see some 60 mph plus wind gusts.  Some of the
strongest winds may come late in the afternoon in association with a
Pacific cold front moving across the region from west to east. Also,
if virga is found in the area along the front, then the stronger
winds may also be brought to the ground.  Some model soundings are
suggesting that there may be some 700 mb moisture with dry air below
it.  Winds will likely stay up in the 15 to 25 mph range through
midnight before slowly tapering off.  Blowing dust will likely
reduce the visibility at times.

Winds on Saturday are expected to be much weaker, mainly in the 10
to 20 mph range.

Highs today will be well above normal, with some records possibly
being broken.

Temperatures will still be above normal on Saturday with readings in
the 60's to lower 70's.

LONG TERM...
Current satellite analysis depicts an area of mid to upper level
low pressure off the coast of Vancouver Island as well as another
area of low pressure off the coast of central California. Slight
ridging is taking place over the easter Plains up against the
Mississippi River Valley. Southwest to westerly flow aloft
continues over the FA, and is projected to remain this way through
the extended period. Dry conditions look to continue during Days
3 through 7, with Sunday being the windiest day in the extended
period, with Tuesday and Thursday looking pretty breezy as well.

Looking at H2 heights in the models, a positively upper level
trough will extend south from northern Alberta into California by
Saturday night. The jet stream downstream of the base of the
trough will increase with H2 wind speeds reaching around 150 to
170 kts extending from southern California northeast into west to
central Colorado by Sunday afternoon. The combined Panhandles are
progged to be under the right exit region of this jet maxima
sunday afternoon with speeds closer to 120 kts overhead. Down
around H7 wind speeds top out around 70 to 80 kts. At the surface
a leeside low will develop in eastern Colorado with a surface
trough extending south early in the day on Sunday. The surface low
and trough will travel eastward across northern Kansas through
the day. Wind highlights may be needed on Sunday with this stacked
jet and possible advisory level winds. Depending on how much
mixing can occur a High Wind Warning may possibly be needed for
the gusts, especially in the northwest combined Panhandles where
there may be clearer skies.

Sunday night skies will clear out for all in the FA and winds will
die down as the surface low continues east out of the area.
Temperatures in the low 20s will return to the northwest combined
Panhandles after a few days of warm overnight lows. Monday,
temperatures will be a bit milder for everyone in the FA after a
very warm weekend. But, are still to be above normal, in the
upper 50s to 60s. Tuesday, breezy southwest winds will be present
with similar temperatures to Monday, with slightly warmer
temperatures in the eastern half of the FA.

Wednesday a backdoor cold front will dip into the northeastern
combined Panhandles but will stall out somewhere around the
Guymon and Canadian line. Strong southwest winds associated with
a surface low over NE NM and SE CO will quickly push the cold air
to the northeast out of the area. Thursday breezy winds will be
present again with temperatures still in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

36

FIRE WEATHER...

Today...

Critical fire weather conditions will be found across the Panhandles
from late this morning through the afternoon.  Southwest to west
winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph or greater will be found
across mainly the western half of the Panhandles.  Winds will be in
the 20 to 30 mph range across the east.  Lowest relative humidity
values will be in the 20 to 30 percent range by early afternoon and
then they will likely hold steady as low level moisture increases
despite the warming temperatures.

Sunday...

A stacked upper level jet will once again lay over the combined
Panhandles Sunday, introducing some gusty conditions. Critical
fire weather conditions are looking to be possible across much of
the area on Sunday, but especially for the northwest combined
Panhandles. This is where clear skies and stronger winds aloft
are expected. Cloud cover to the southeast may keep winds a
little bit lighter with less mixing. Not quite confident to say
there will be wind highlights, but it is definitely possible.
Right now RFTI's max out at 4 for most of the Panhandles, with the
central to western Oklahoma Panhandle seeing 2 hours of a max
RFTI of 5. This will mainly be a wind driven event with only a few
hours in the mid to late afternoon where the lowest RH's coincide
with windy conditions as winds should start to come down late
afternoon. An overnight RH of around 50 percent the night before
will hopefully mitigate any possible fire starts early on when the
winds are at their highest.

Elevated to possibly isolated critical fire weather will be
possible on Tuesday and Thursday as well.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                79  45  67  46  74 /   5   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  78  40  67  41  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              72  34  62  38  65 /   5   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  82  47  69  47  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              79  41  66  42  72 /   5   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  80  44  67  44  74 /   5   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               82  51  69  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 72  33  62  37  66 /   5   5   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  77  39  66  41  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                79  43  67  44  73 /   5   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                80  44  69  43  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   81  46  67  47  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                83  50  72  46  81 /   5   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              83  51  73  46  82 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf
     Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...
     Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo
     Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman...
     Wheeler.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hutchinson...Ochiltree...
     Roberts.

     High Wind Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...
     Moore...Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...
     Sherman.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Texas.

     High Wind Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Cimarron.

&&

89

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
332 AM CST Fri Dec 24 2021

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-242300-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
332 AM CST Fri Dec 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Damaging wind gusts up to 60 to 65 mph will be possible in the
western half of the combined Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Windy and
dry conditions will lead to critical fire weather conditions across
the entire area as well this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Windy and dry conditions will lead to elevated and critical fire
weather conditions Sunday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated or critical fire weather conditions today and Sunday.