High Wind in Texas, April 6, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
648 PM CDT Tue Apr 6 2021

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, a cold front will move through the terminal
sites this evening with strong north northwest winds in its wake.
The overall strongest winds are expected to occur at KGUY and
KDHT. No precipitation is anticipated with this cold frontal
passage. Winds are forecast to diminish at KDHT and KAMA early
Wednesday afternoon, followed by KGUY very late Wednesday
afternoon.

02

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.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 257 PM CDT Tue Apr 6 2021/

SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow Night...

Latest upper level analysis revealed a compact but potent closed low
moving over northwest CO. Mid level water vapor imagery showed very
dry air moving across the Panhandles associated with a subtle lead
wave. The latest trends suggest the stronger mid and upper level
flow is still over NM with the main wave, and just south of the
Panhandles with the lead wave. The 500mb jet will not make it into
the Panhandles until later this evening. The net result is that
winds across the Panhandles have not been as strong as expected so
far this afternoon, with most seeing winds of 15 to 20 knots with
gusts near 25 to 35 knots. The Panhandles are also in the left exit
region of the mid and upper level waves which is not helping with
the deep mixing process. That being said, very dry surface
conditions have been noted with dew points falling into the teens
and upper single digits. So far, the HRRR and RAP have been too low
with dew points, so have leaned more towards NBM compared to
previous forecast, and this seems to match better with observations.

The closed low will march across the Rocky Mountains and end up over
central KS by Wednesday morning. This will promote a fairly strong
cold front with sharp pressure rises (3mb/hr) across the Panhandles
this evening (3-4 mb/hr in the north and 2-3 mb/hr in the south).
Some models also suggest a localized 850mb jet maxima behind the
front this evening across the northwest and north central zones, and
weakening as it shifts across the eastern zones. Upcoming shifts
will want to watch the trends with this feature, because the
strongest guidance (GFS) suggest near 55 knot winds within the jet
max. If this were to verify, there could be a brief period with near
60 mph wind gusts in the northern zones just behind the front as
model soundings do keep dry adiabatic lapse rates up to 850mb. For
now, will issue a wind advisory for the northwest TX Panhandle and
the western two thirds of the OK Panhandle based on where the
strongest pressure rises occur.

Winds should decrease some towards sunrise Wednesday, but will
become breezy again by Wednesday afternoon on the backside of the
low. Winds on Wednesday afternoon will be mainly low level jet
driven given modest wind speeds from 850mb to 500mb. Temperatures
will be cooler across the Panhandles with highs near normal.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions will continue through this evening
as westerly winds of 20 to 30 mph along with RH values in the single
digits and teens extend through about 9 PM (RFTIs around 4 to 7 with
some isolated 8s). So far, fuels seem to be limiting fire starts as
only one hot spot has been detected (and it was outside of the
critical area in Wheeler Co). RH values will rise sharply behind a
cold front tonight, but this is also when we expect the strongest
winds to occur. There is a window between roughly 8 PM and 2 AM
where northwest twenty foot winds could peak around 35 to 45 mph (a
50 mph gust can't be ruled out in the northwest and north central
zones).

Northwest winds are expected to decrease through sunrise, but should
become gusty again Wednesday afternoon as the main system passes to
our north. Northerly winds peaking around 20 to 30 mph with higher
gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon. Very dry surface air
will remain in place as RH values drop into the low teens. This will
result in elevated conditions given RFTIs in the 2 to 4 range. Fuels
transitioning to green will be the main limitation.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...

Dry weather conditions expected throughout the forecast period.
With quite an active northern stream jet, the southern CONUS will
miss out on most of the precipitation chances through early next
week. With the exception of an occasional cold front moving
through the Panhandles, temperatures overall will remain at or
above average. Starting Thursday through Sunday, temperatures will
be above average in the 70s and lower 80s. A series of cold front
early next week will drop temperatures back to near average.

Meccariello

FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Thursday through
Sunday. If prolonged cured fuels occur along with gusty 20 ft
winds sustained above 15-20 MPH, critical fire weather conditions
could also be possible among these aforementioned days. Min RH
values will be consistent below 15 percent throughout the
Panhandles Thursday through Sunday with max RFTI values of 2 to 3.

Meccariello

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...
     Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson...Moore...Oldham...
     Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Sherman.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for the following zones:
     Dallam...Hartley...Sherman.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Cimarron...Texas.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for the following zones:
     Cimarron...Texas.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
942 PM CDT Tue Apr 6 2021

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-071100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
942 PM CDT Tue Apr 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Sustained north to northwest winds of 35 to 39 mph with gusts
to around 55 mph are expected across the western and central
Oklahoma Panhandle as well as the northwest Texas Panhandle
until around 1 AM Wednesday morning. As a result, a Wind Advisory
is in effect for this area until 1 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across portions
of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles Wednesday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday through Sunday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1009 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SE KENTON             36.85N 102.91W
04/06/2021  M63 MPH          CIMARRON           OK   MESONET

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1012 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSE BOISE CITY        36.69N 102.49W
04/06/2021  M58 MPH          CIMARRON           OK   MESONET

&&