A stretch of dry and warm weather occurred in late April, leading to the return of Exceptional (D4) Drought to much of the Northern Ranchlands. Drought conditions elsewhere remained largely unchanged, with Extreme (D3) and Severe (D2) Drought continuing away from the Ranchlands.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
A stretch of dry and warm weather occurred in late April, leading to the return of Exceptional (D4) Drought to much of the Northern Ranchlands. Drought conditions elsewhere remained largely unchanged, with Extreme (D3) and Severe (D2) Drought continuing away from the Ranchlands.
The last of April's Extreme to Exceptional Drought footprint would be the largest for the season, as welcome and more widespread rains arrive by late evening of the 30th into early on May 1st. May would flip the script from dry to wet, and by the start of June, all but a sliver of Severe (D2) Drought would remain in Zapata County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 26, 11:19 PM CST, 41 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1219 AM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Moderate winds and low clouds should once again preclude the development of fog for the remainder of the overnight hours. Tomorrow, VFR will be on full display before a return to MVFR conditions Tuesday night. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 634 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION...MVFR ceilings will occur at each of the local aerodromes through much of the TAF period. Ceilings will slowly lower through the overnight hours but should remain at MVFR levels, perhaps dipping slightly into IFR levels shortly before sunrise. Some patchy fog is possible Tuesday morning, but winds look to be a limiting factor so will leave any mentions of fog in TEMPO groups for now. MVFR ceilings will then continue through much of Tuesday, similar to today. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): For the short term, we'll see much of the same with above average temperatures, humid conditions, and breezy to windy southeast winds. Mid level ridging will continue to shift towards the Southeast while a trough swings down the West Coast and moves into the Desert Southwest, maintaining a persistent southwesterly flow aloft over Deep South Texas through the short term. At the surface, a low forming over the Central Plains combined with broad high pressure over the East Coast will increase the local pressure gradient and bring breezy to windy southeasterly winds today and Tuesday, but winds should stay below Wind Advisory criteria. The onshore flow will increase surface moisture and bring in another round of low level clouds overnight tonight and possibly some patchy fog or haze, but winds should be too strong to support any substantial fog development. The low clouds will likely stick around until the early afternoon before lifting for a few hours and then increase again overnight Tuesday night. While low level moisture will be high through the short term, ridging should keep any mentionable PoPs out of the picture through Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the trough that is approaching from the west, a weak shortwave in the southwesterly flow aloft may be enough along with the moisture to spark some Sierra Madre convection on Tuesday night that may nudge into Starr and Zapata counties from the west. However, have kept PoPs below 20 percent. Temperatures will continue to be above average through the short term, due to the onshore flow and high dew points. Heat indices will even reach 100 to 107 degrees in Zapata and Starr counties tomorrow afternoon due to the combination of high temperatures and relative humidity. Minor coastal flooding may begin to be of concern around high tide both early tomorrow and Wednesday morning, with water levels approaching the dunes due to amplified tides and predicted water levels running about a foot over the predicted tides. LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): The long term will initialize with mid level ridging and high pressure over the mid Atlantic region, with a southward sinking, positive tilt mid level trough/low over the Desert Southwest, broad surface low pressure over the central high plains, and southwest flow aloft over West Texas, though slightly less distinct just then over deep South texas and the RGV. Southeast winds will be enhanced into the breezy if not windy category on Wednesday, continuing into Wednesday night at the immediate coast, as broad low pressure persists over the central High Plains and Desert Southwest. Temperatures will be quite toasty across the region on Wednesday, above average by several degrees. Heat index values out west, focused over Starr County and the Falcon Dam areas, will rise to between 105 and 110-111 degrees Wednesday afternoon, teasing heat advisory criteria. Moderate 20 ft winds, cured fuels and lower relative humidity values will be enough for enhanced wildfire growth and spread potential out west on Wednesday, teasing and possibly meeting fire danger statement criteria. In addition, P-ETTS guidance suggests daily increased beach runup and overwash, with the potential for minor coastal flooding at high tide from Wednesday into the weekend. The long range models are in better agreement today compared to yesterday. The base of the positive tilt mid level low or deep trough will swing across North Mexico and into West Texas on Wednesday. SPC paints the CWA in a general thunderstorm outlook area both Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Instability in the southwest flow aloft will trigger convection over the Sierra Madre Oriental range to the west of the CWA, and isolated convection could drift east into the northwest. In the mean time, an extended frontal system from the Plains to Central Texas will take form, edging closer to the western counties late Wednesday. As the front moves through the CWA late Wednesday night, convective coverage could increase to scattered, and could eventually encompass or shift to the eastern CWA Thursday morning. Any stronger storms are expected to be isolated pulse across the upper valley, devolving to moderate storms along the front approaching the coast. Rainfall amounts should total less than an inch through Thursday, due to generally quick movement, but if a storm happens to track over a previous storm's wake, higher amounts will be possible. The models, while in better agreement, still show some differences. The ECMWF has decided to keep the upper low together now rather than split it into two diverging portions. On the other hand, it also keeps the low lingering over the area longer than the GFS, into Friday, whereas the GFS troughs out on Thursday and lifts east by Friday. Thus, while the GFS pretty much clears things out on Friday, the ECMWF holds on the its best rain day on Friday. There are also some temperature differences during the transition from Wednesday through Saturday. The ECMWF stays warmer by a few degrees, while it appears the the GFS is able to bring slightly cooler air in with the front. Over the weekend, the ECMWF builds a modest ridge over the area while the GFS displays a more amplified pattern with a larger ridge axis farther upstream. MARINE: Now through Tuesday Night...With high pressure over the East Coast and low pressure forming over the Central Plains, the strong pressure gradient will bring persistent moderate southeasterly winds through Tuesday with seas generally 2 to 5 feet across the lower Texas coastal waters through Tuesday. SCEC conditions will be likely through Tuesday. Winds and seas will pick up on Tuesday night, with SCA conditions possible. Wednesday through Saturday Night...Fresh to strong southeast winds will be in play Wednesday and Wednesday night. Small craft should exercise caution conditions will continue on the Laguna Madre and small craft advisory conditions will prevail on the Gulf of Mexico waters. Winds will weaken and turn to northeast on Thursday as a weak front arrives in the region, but elevated seas will keep the Gulf waters hazardous during the day. Moderate north to northeast winds and moderate seas will then continue Thursday night through Saturday, with winds ultimately shifting to southeast late in the period, or Saturday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 87 74 87 / 10 0 20 30 BROWNSVILLE 76 90 76 91 / 10 0 20 30 HARLINGEN 74 93 74 91 / 10 0 20 20 MCALLEN 76 95 75 94 / 10 0 30 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 103 74 95 / 20 0 40 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 80 74 79 / 10 0 10 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 647 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021 TXZ248>257-351-353-280000- Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo- Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron- Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo- 647 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the beaches of South Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach. Watch for beach overwash and runup at high tide late tonight. Minor coastal flooding will be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday An elevated risk of rip currents will be possible at the local beaches through the entire period. Watch for beach overwash and runup at high tide late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning, and each morning thereafter. Minor coastal flooding will be possible. A Wind Advisory will be possible for the coastal portion of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Wednesday. Heat Index values of 103 to 108 degrees will occur on Tuesday and Wednesday during the afternoon hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-280000- Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX- Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX- Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm- Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm- Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm- 647 PM CDT Mon Apr 26 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of Mexico and The Laguna Madre. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Small Craft Advisories are possible along the Lower Texas Coast Tuesday night through Friday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
A combination of hot and dry weather led to the expansion of drought conditions in Starr County. Exceptional (D4) Drought expanded across northern and northeastern Starr County.
A combination of hot and dry weather led to the expansion of drought conditions in Jim Hogg County. Exceptional (D4) Drought expanded across the remainder of eastern Jim Hogg County.
A combination of hot and dry weather led to the expansion of drought conditions in Brooks County. Exceptional (D4) Drought expanded across much of western Brooks County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, April 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 956142, 956143, 956144.