Tornado and Hail in Texas, April 23, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
138 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

.SHORT TERM...
An upper level trough with a slightly positive tilt was making its
way across New Mexico early this afternoon. As this trough
approaches the area and moves overhead this evening it will take on
more of a neutral tilt. We will be on the downwind side of a curved
upper level jet resulting in a broad area of upper level divergence.
A strong jet streak will result in this divergence mostly off the
caprock and points farther east into northwest Texas and Oklahoma.
Subsidence will then quickly swing in aloft as the trough axis moves
overhead this evening. A center of a surface low was currently
moving across the extreme southern Texas Panhandle resulting in dry
westerly winds for much of the FA. The only exception was over the
eastern Rolling Plains into the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle
where surface winds remained backed. Low level convergence still
looks to be maximized over the southeastern Texas Panhandle just to
the northeast of the center of the surface low. From this location
into the northern Rolling Plains looks to be the most likely point
of initiation of convection.

A notable low level theta-e ridge was advecting northward into the
Rolling Plains this afternoon. This theta-e ridge will likely bend
back to the northwest in the low level wind convergence zone across
the southeastern into south-central Texas Panhandle. Although low
level mixed layer CAPEs will max out farther to the east in
northwest Texas, we will still see healthy instability values over
the aforementioned area of around 1500-2000 J/kg. This is also in
part due to very steep mid level lapse rates moving overhead this
afternoon around 8-9 C/km. Model soundings also show very little
to no capping by 4pm or so within this zone of high instability
values. Any thunderstorms that do develop will quickly become
severe with very large hail possible but also quickly move east of
the FA. A cold front will follow this evening and overnight
shifting breezy winds to the north. A low amplitude ridge will
then move overhead on Saturday leading to a beautiful day.

.LONG TERM...
A relatively progressive low amplitude ridge is on course to
overspread the southwest CONUS for the end of the weekend and
beginning of next week helping to turn the heat up to around 90
degrees across the region on Sunday and Monday. A positively tilted
trough will deepen as it approaches on Tuesday with a sharp gradient
of H50 height falls dropping temps somewhat, but winds will increase
as the trough axis impinges on the divergent surface wind field over
New Mexico and West Texas. A cold front quickly fills in and cools
us down Wednesday as the trough axis shifts east with a slight
chance of rainfall on the back side of the system Wednesday
afternoon. A more amplified ridge will first set up over the west
for the end of the work week, then gradually flatten through the
course of the weekend. Highs thursday and Friday will be in the 70s
for most, and back into the mid 80's for next Saturday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

01/55

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
322 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

TXZ021>044-242030-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
322 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Warm, dry, and gusty westerly winds will result in elevated to
near-critical fire weather conditions across the Caprock, and the
central and southern Rolling Plains region this afternoon. A Fire
Danger Statement is in effect from noon to 8 pm CDT.

A threat of an isolated severe wind gust up to 60 mph and large hail
up to baseball size is possible this afternoon as storms form across
the eastern Rolling Plains and extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle.
An isolated tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Additional fire weather concerns will be possible each afternoon
Sunday through the middle of next week. A threat of strong to
possibly severe storms will exist Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS while following local, state, and CDC
guidelines.