Numerous showers and thunderstorms affected Middle Tennessee during the evening hours on February 27, then again during the afternoon and evening hours on February 28. Several storms became severe and produced damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms affected Middle Tennessee during the evening hours on February 27, then again during the afternoon and evening hours on February 28. Several storms became severe and produced damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 27, 4:52 PM CST, 3 hours 57 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 452 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 .UPDATE... FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Went with a blended model solution through next Saturday afternoon. Good initialization and generally good solution agreement. Big player in this potential significant rainfall event unfolding across mid state region through early Monday will still be a surface warm front moving well north of mid state region tonight, shifting heavier rain axis up into Ohio Valley. Trailing this warm front is a cold front that will drop into mid state region later Sunday, and then work south of our area overnight. Late Sunday/Sunday night will be our biggest threat of flooding as most of expected rainfall will come during that period and some river flooding possibly continuing well through next work week. Severe parameters also a bit enhanced for Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening across our area. Afternoon high temps on Sunday expected to sore into mid 70s south with a good amount of instability and favorable lapses rates for strong to severe convection development, especially if rainfall does not move into this portion of mid state region until late afternoon hours allowing for increased atmospheric instability due to enhanced diurnal heating influences. SPC has placed entire mid state region in a marginal risk during Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening time frame. Still looks like all this rain will end as Monday morning hours progress. Past and future QPF have been quite consistent over the previous few model runs giving our area a total rainfall event of 2-4 inches, with isolated 4+ inches possible. Thus a Flood Watch continues from 12Z Sunday through 12Z Monday for most of mid state region expect south central and southeast counties where lesser amounts are expected. This developing weather pattern will result in unseasonably warm lows are tonight as low level warm air advection becomes increasingly established. Lows tonight will actually be higher than seasonal normal high temperatures! Lows tonight will range upper 50s north to lower 60s south. Highs on Sunday will range from upper 60s north to mid 70s south. Lows Sunday night will fall into low to mid 40s as surface frontal passage occurs. As a cold air advection pattern from our north settles into mid state region as Monday progresses, highs will be actually a few degrees cooler than seasonal normal values generally in lower 50s. Following this system, potential of scattered showers will continue across mid state region through Tuesday night as now both latest GFS/ECMWF solutions move a system across mid state region as Tuesday night progresses. Dry conditions should finally prevail across our area Wednesday through Thursday afternoon as upper level ridging influences build across mid state region. Also noted is now better agreement between latest GFS/ECMWF solution as next weekend approaches. However will still maintain forecast consistency with mentioning just a chance of showers across mid state region Thursday night through Friday night. Temperatures are expected to stay around seasonal normal values Tuesday through next Saturday afternoon. Maybe some wintry precipitation mix working in during Tuesday and Wednesday morning hours, but no significant accumulations expected. Mid state continues to get a break from Old Man Winter! && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. Rainfall will pick up in coverage and intensity this evening as a warm front lifts northward toward and through the taf sites. There could perhaps be a rumble of thunder but will keep the tafs with SHRA for now. Otw, look for coverage to decrease after 06Z with VCNTY usage, although IFR cigs will remain. Also, wind speeds will pick up a bit and low level wind shear inclusion will be required. Rain will pick up again toward the very end of the taf period in our northwest as the main frontal boundary approaches. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for Cannon-Cheatham-Clay-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson- Fentress-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon- Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson- Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne- White-Williamson-Wilson. && DISCUSSION......JB Wright AVIATION........21
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Nashville TN 409 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-281130- Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston- Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson- Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury- Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee- Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles- 409 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Showers, and possibly a strong storm or two across the north, are likely today into the evening. The flood threat through tonight however remains low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. 1 to 3+ inches of rain is likely Sunday and Sunday night. These rainfall amounts could cause flooding in some areas, along with likely rises on area rivers starting late Sunday and lasting well into next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines. 07
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
700 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021
TNZ024-056-057-280145-
Hickman TN-Humphreys TN-Perry TN-
700 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY...SOUTHERN HUMPHREYS AND
HICKMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CST...
At 700 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Parsons, or 13 miles east of Natchez Trace State
Forest, moving east at 35 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Centerville, Linden, Hurricane Mills, Lobelville, Mousetail Landing
State Park, Pinewood, Pleasantville, Nunnelly, Bucksnort and I-40
Near The Tennessee River.
This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 136 and 162.
LAT...LON 3566 8802 3572 8804 3577 8798 3583 8797
3587 8794 3593 8793 3594 8794 3613 8755
3602 8755 3599 8753 3598 8747 3569 8730
3568 8732 3564 8756 3565 8757 3565 8759
3563 8762 3556 8800 3562 8804
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 247DEG 32KT 3573 8803
BarnwellSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
812 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021
TNZ025-026-057-059-060-280300-
Hickman TN-Williamson TN-Dickson TN-Maury TN-Cheatham TN-
812 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DICKSON...NORTHERN
MAURY...WESTERN WILLIAMSON...SOUTH CENTRAL CHEATHAM AND CENTRAL
HICKMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CST...
At 812 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Centerville, moving east at 40 mph.
Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Dickson, Centerville, Spring Hill, White Bluff, Kingston Springs,
Thompson's Station, Pegram, Burns, Fairview, Bon Aqua, Primm Springs,
Lyles, Santa Fe, Pinewood, Leipers Fork and Nunnelly.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 40 between mile markers 155 and 158, and between mile
markers 167 and 191.
Interstate 840 between mile markers 1 and 25.
LAT...LON 3615 8705 3610 8703 3608 8704 3604 8704
3605 8705 3599 8704 3599 8703 3600 8700
3574 8691 3571 8754 3593 8761
TIME...MOT...LOC 0212Z 248DEG 34KT 3580 8749
BarnwellThe Nashville radar (KOHX), 30 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:51 UTC.
12 flash flood, 8 thunderstorm wind, 7 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Social media reports indicated that portions of Rock Springs Road as well as Sam Ridley Parkway between I-24 and Old Nashville Highway were flooded and closed.
Social media reports indicated rushing flood waters covered several roadways in Carthage.
Clarendon Road was washed out near Harding Road in Belle Meade.
Numerous roads were flooded across the county including The Trace one mile north of Highway 79 and Sandy Road at Indian Creek Road southwest of Dover.
A 1/2 mile wide by 1/4 mile long microburst damaged several homes and outbuildings on Mill Road from Wagner Road to Honey Point Ferry Lane on the east side of New Johnsonville. Several trees, power lines, and power poles were also blown down. Winds were estimated up to 75 mph.
Several roads were flooded across the county including Hargis Road.
Numerous roads flooded across the county including Smith Street at 5th Street, Sage Road at Highway 76, 7428 Highway 49 East, Old Coopertown Road at Woods Road, Cross Plains Road, Bethlehem Road, Dixon Road, and Highway 25 East.
A child was injured after coming into contact with a downed power line on University Court near downtown Nashville.
A retired NWS employee and several public photos showed long, narrow cylindrical-shaped hail.
Penny sized hail was reported in the Walton Ferry Peninsula area.
Pea to nickel size hail and winds estimated up to 50 mph occurred at the NWS Nashville office.
Nickel size hail was reported Indian Lake Elementary School in Hendersonville.
A Twitter tSpotter report indicated quarter size hail fell on the Indian Lake Peninsula in Hendersonville.
A Facebook report indicated half dollar size hail fell on Burton Road.
Pea to quarter size hail fell east of La Guardo.
Trees were blown down across several roads throughout the county.
Baggett Hollow Lane was closed due to a mudslide.
Several roads were flooding across the county including Budds Creek Road, Vernon Creek Road at Locust Grove Church Road, and Salem Road at Highway 48.
A tree was blown down that blocked Linder Mountain Road, and a power pole and power lines were blown down that blocked Highway 111 near Big Springs Road.
A Twitter tSpotter report indicated Lockertsville Road and Harristown Road was flooded and closed.
Several roads were flooded and closed across Dickson County including Yellow Creek Road at Bishop Slab, South Eno Road, Piney Creek at Double Branch Road, and Gamers Creek at Sam Hollow Road.
The roof was blown off the press box at Shelbyville Central High School.
A Twitter tSpotter report indicated a couple of trees and large limbs were blown down near Christiana.
A Twitter tSpotter report indicated a sheet metal roof was partially blown off the Caldwell Furniture Store in Shelbyville.
Several trees, large limbs, and outbuildings were damaged in and around Wartrace.
A mother and her 11 year old daughter were rescued from a vehicle trapped in high water on Flatt Dyer Road. No injuries.
Two people were rescued from a vehicle trapped in flood waters on New Chapel Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 946102, 946103, 946104, 946105, 946106, 946107, 946108, 946109, 946110, 946111, 946112, 946113, 946114, 946120, 946115, 946116, 946117, 946118, 946119, 946121, 946122, 946123, 946124, 946125, 946126, 946127, 946128.