A southwest upper level flow pattern set up over the region and allowed upper level disturbances to interact with a stalled front and deep moisture over the lower Mississippi Valley. Multiple rounds of rainfall produced heavy rainfall and isolated flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
A southwest upper level flow pattern set up over the region and allowed upper level disturbances to interact with a stalled front and deep moisture over the lower Mississippi Valley. Multiple rounds of rainfall produced heavy rainfall and isolated flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 27, 5:16 PM CST, 4 hours 19 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 516 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 An upper level trough is currently pushing east into the Central Plains this afternoon. Surface low pressure is located across western Kansas currently. Warm air advection is occurring across the area. Most of the area has warmed into the upper 50s to the lower 60s this afternoon. The exception is south central MO where clouds have keep temperatures cooler. A drier air mass is still over the area and is limiting the rain potential currently within the warm air advection. Moisture is also advecting north and showers and a few storms are developing across central Arkansas with this moisture advection. This activity will continue to move north and into the southern portions of the area by early this evening. These storms will be elevated in nature and not rooted in the surface boundary. Shear is significant but instability is more lacking with generally around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE that can be realized. The weaker instability will limit the overall severe potential. Though, given the amount of deep layer shear, there could be a few stronger storms with hail up to the size of quarters but again the widespread severe risk very is low. Since these storms are elevated in nature the wind risk will also be very limited. The best potential for this activity will be along and south of I-44. The bulk of the activity will be these evening with it being more on and off overnight into Sunday morning as a cold front moves through the area. Rainfall amounts will range from a few hundredths across east central Kansas to 1 to 1.5 inches across south central Missouri. There will be a flooding risk this evening into tonight where multiple storms track over the same locations. Low lying flood-prone areas such as sensitive low water crossings will be most susceptible to any flooding potential. Will keep the Flood Watch as is this evening through tonight. Brisk northwesterly winds will occur on Sunday, with slightly cooler conditions as highs will generally warm into the lower to middle 50s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 In general, temperatures will be above normal through this week as highs in the 50s occur, with a few days in the lower 60s possible. The coolest days look to be Monday and Tuesday. An upper level trough will move through the region Monday night into Tuesday. There is spread in the ensemble members on the exact timing of this system. A few models bring precipitation to the area Monday night with most of them bringing it on Tuesday. If precipitation does move in Monday night, it may start off as light snow before changing over to all rain on Tuesday. The better chances is it holds off and is all light rain on Tuesday. No accumulations or impacts are expected. Wednesday and Thursday will likely see highs in the 60s as an upper level ridge will be over the area. Another upper level trough will then track across the region late this week and bring additional rain chances to the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 511 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 Showers with embedded thunderstorms will increase over the next few hours, especially at KSGF and KBBG, with lower coverage and intensity expected at KJLN. Can't rule out some small hail at times at KSGF and KBBG. LLWS is also expected tonight with a strengthening low level jet. Expect improvement later tonight into Sunday. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ096>098-104>106. KS...NONE. && SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...Wise AVIATION...Titus
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Springfield MO 1256 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-281900- Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon- St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 1256 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Limited hail risk. Limited flooding risk. Elevated lightning risk. DISCUSSION... Thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening, mainly along and south of the I-44 corridor. A few stronger storms may produce hail to the size of quarters over south central Missouri. Heavy rain will accompany the thunderstorms. An inch to inch and a half of rain will be possible over south central Missouri, where a flood watch has been issued for tonight. Some flooding of low lying areas will be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. A few linger storms will be possible across southern Missouri Sunday morning. Cloud to ground lightning strikes will be the main risk with any storm. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep This product in graphical format...along with other weather... hydrological and climate information...at http://www.weather.gov/sgf Wise
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rainfall caused Possum Walk Creek to flood closing Highway T to traffic.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 939322.