Hail and Damaging Wind in Tennessee, April 24, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
236 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Showers are beginning to develop along the surface low which is
centered over the western part of the CWA. Current RAP analysis
shows 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE over the southwestern third of the
CWA with mid level lapse rates between 7-7.5 degrees Celsius. HRRR
has continued to show some storms developing in the next hour or
two. Right now, no thunder has been noted with echo tops only
around 22 kft. Thinking has not changed much in regards to severe
potential. One or two storms could be strong with gusty winds and
small hail. The activity will move to the west by 03z leaving
Middle Tennessee dry for the next several days.

We will start a warming trend tomorrow and temperatures for most
of the area will be in the 80s by Monday. Strong upper ridging
will develop on Monday with surface high pressure off the east
coast of the Carolinas. I bumped highs up a degree or two from NBM
Tuesday and Wednesday which could allow some locations to creep
into the mid 80s both days. Euro and GFS are not on the same page
with the system that approaches late Wednesday. GFS has a more
progressive solution while the Euro hangs the southern trough
behind the northern stream. Both solutions keep the bulk of the
rain out of the area until Thursday, but the GFS solution would
produce more rain than the Euro solution. In fact, the trough
would not clear our area until late next weekend according to the
Euro solution while the GFS solution has a nice weekend in store
for us. Given the discrepancy, forecast confidence is low from
Thursday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR cigs will affect airports this afternoon as
additional -SHRA and VCTS move across the area. All rain should
end by 25/00Z with MVFR cigs at BNA/MQY overnight and IFR/LIFR
cigs with MVFR vis at CKV/CSV. East to southeast winds this
afternoon will switch to northwest later this afternoon into the
evening as an area of low pressure shifts eastward through the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      47  69  46  81  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    46  68  47  80  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
Crossville     45  64  43  75  54 /  50   0   0   0   0
Columbia       47  69  45  81  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   48  69  46  80  56 /  30   0   0   0   0
Waverly        47  71  49  82  59 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Reagan
AVIATION........Shamburger

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
457 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-251000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
457 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

While the probability is low, a strong thunderstorm or two is
possible this afternoon for areas south of I-40, especially closer to
the Alabama state line. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph and small hail
are the main concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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