Tornadoes and Hail in Alabama, April 24, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
657 AM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Sunday]

A fairly complex weather day in store for the tri-state region
today. MCS is ongoing across southern Alabama which will move
into our area over the next few hours. The area will elongate
across southeast Al and southwest GA this morning with additional
convection developing through the day. Winds outside of convection
will increase today with sustained 15-20 knots and gusts 20-30
knots from the south and southwest. Severe thunderstorms are an
elevated risk with all severe threats possible. Low clouds will
continue developing in and around the MCS with primarily MVFR
developing with IFR and below cigs/vsbys underneath convection. As
far as ending time, expect from west to east beginning this
evening and later tonight over our eastern sections.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [222 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Today is looking like a rough day for the tri-state region. An
initial line of storms is expected to move rapidly eastward through
the morning hours across portions of southeast Alabama and southern
Georgia, perhaps clipping portions of the Florida panhandle. This
line could be severe with damaging winds, although it may tend to
outrace the return of instability the farther east it moves.
Nevertheless, it is expected to leave behind a boundary somewhere in
the forecast area that will be the focus for additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms through the day. Models indicate decent
instability building through the day along this boundary with
favorable shear for severe storms. All forms of severe weather will
be possible, including tornadoes, damaging wind, and even large hail
given the sizable instability forecast. If that weren't enough, the
west-east orientation of the surface boundary may lead to training
convection with an attendant threat of flash flooding. A flash
flood watch has been issued for portions of the Florida panhandle
as well as all of our southeast Alabama and southwest and south
central Georgia counties. Finally, winds will be gusty today even
outside of thunderstorms with a strong low level jet in the area
and decent mixing. Peak gusts near 40 mph are possible, and a wind
advisory has also been issued for the entire forecast area.

Rounds of convection will continue into the evening hours before
finally tapering off from west to east late in the evening. It may
take until after midnight for convection to completely clear the
southeast big bend.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...

A period of dry weather is in store Sunday and Monday with
anticyclonic northwest flow aloft, as winds gradually veer from
northwest to easterly, with northeast conus high pressure
nosing southward into the area. Temperatures will be slightly
above seasonal levels.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The area will remain under deep layer ridging through Wednesday,
with a continued stretch of dry weather.

The forecast becomes uncertain with the next storm system beginning
on Thursday and continuing through Saturday. There is considerable
spread between the GEFS and EPS. The EPS is deeper and thus slower
with the progression of the longwave trough, and attempts to develop
a cutoff low over the southeast conus. The GFS is also hinting at
this as well. A slower frontal passage/stalled front increases the
potential for heavy rainfall. Cannot rule out severe weather, but
the intersection of parameters is not favorable at this time, so
will continue to monitor.

Temperatures remain above average through Wednesday, then lowering
some due to cloud cover and showers thereafter.

.MARINE...

Southerly winds will remain at advisory levels into early tonight.
Meanwhile, significant wave heights will build to around 6 to 7 feet
west of the Ochlocknee River. Strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible today and tonight, prior to a cold frontal passage. Seas
will remain elevated on Sunday with northwest winds, and tranquil
boating conditions expected to return on Monday as seas decrease
below 3 feet and winds become easterly. However, that will be short
lived, as elevated easterly winds and seas are expected to return by
Tuesday and persist through Wednesday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days. An
area of low pressure will bring a wetting rain to the region today.

.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected from portions of
Southeast Alabama and the adjacent Western FL Panhandle into
Southwest Georgia. Maximum amounts around 7 inches are possible.
These rainfall amounts over a short period of time could lead
to flash flooding today into early tonight and a Flash Flood
Watch has been issued. Rainfall amounts should taper off to
less than one inch over the remainder of the area. There is the
potential for some rivers to rise into action stage. Looking
ahead, additional rainfall is likely with the approach of the
next storm system Thursday into next weekend, especially
northwest of the FL Big Bend.

For more detailed information on specific river stages and
forecasts, visit: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   79  64  82  58  85 /  80  90   0   0   0
Panama City   78  64  79  60  81 /  80  70   0   0   0
Dothan        79  58  79  55  82 / 100  50   0   0   0
Albany        80  60  80  55  83 / 100  70   0   0   0
Valdosta      82  64  82  57  85 /  80  90   0   0   0
Cross City    83  68  83  59  86 /  30  90  10   0   0
Apalachicola  77  67  78  61  78 /  50  90   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-
     South Walton-Washington.

     Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Walton-Holmes-
     Jackson-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

     Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Sunday for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...LF
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LF