Hail in South Dakota, July 8, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
900 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

There have been a few supercells west river this evening, and a
couple remain tracking just west of the ABR CWA. Per SPC mesopage
there remains plenty of deep layer and effective shear to support
ongoing svr activity. We are starting to see an increase in MLCIN
as troposphere starts to cool. Meanwhile the LLJ is
shifting/developing more toward the SC/SE part of the state.
Activity west river may go through a reduction in intensity
gradually through the rest of the evening. However, expect more
elevated type storms to form over SC/SE SD tnt as LLJ increases.
Some of this activity will likely clip southern part of the CWA.
Other activity in western ND may clip NC SD later tonight if it
can hold together. Overall not making too many changes to the
forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

Cloud cover has held in much of the afternoon east of the Missouri
River holding down temperatures a little and keeping the
inversion/capping stronger. The ops models and hi-res models all
show a couple upper level low pressure troughs dropping across our
region through Friday night. The first upper low pressure area
spinning in southern Canada this afternoon will be heading southeast
tonight and across eastern sd into Friday morning. There was some
high based waa showers/storms streaming southeast from southwest nd
into north central sd this afternoon. Therefore, expanded and
increased pops across this area this afternoon into this evening.
Otherwise, the main area of storms was with the Canadian short wave
trough this afternoon. The models show this activity heading
southeast through the night with most of it elevated over our cwa.
The area that could be surface based and more likely to be severe
would be west of the Missouri River later this evening and
overnight. The deep layer instability was greater and a surface
boundary stretched from northwest to southeast across this region.
The capping was also weaker along with strong deep layer shear up to
50 knots or higher. There could be some discrete cells moving from
northwest to southeast later on and possibly severe. Otherwise, this
round of showers and storms will move southeast on Friday while
another upper level low pressure trough moves towards our region for
Friday night. This wave looks to affect mostly the western part of
our cwa Friday night with showers and storms with lesser chances to
the east. Highs on Friday will range from the upper 70s in the
northeast cwa to around 90 in the southwest cwa.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

At the surface at 12Z Saturday we'll have an area of low pressure
over KS, with an inverted trough stretching up through our forecast
area. This will be while a 500mb trough swings across the Dakotas
and MN. A large high over the southwestern U.S. will extend a ridge
across MT and into Saskatchewan and into north central Canada. The
sfc and 500mb troughs will continue to sink to our south, with a
500mb low forming over IA Saturday night, as the ridge across Canada
sinks into ND.

The 500mb ridge will sink over SD Monday. Expect drying and warming
conditions with highs topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s by
Monday. Expect the 500mb ridge to become surpressed Tuesday, as a
trough moves across central Canada. At the surface, an elongated
area of low pressure will likely set up to our west through central
South Dakota. This will bring our next chance of showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR cigs across the region will lower to MVFR overnight at most
locations. VSBYS will favor MVFR/VFR and could go to IFR with any
thunderstorms. The highest chances for any severe weather exist at
KPIR/KMBG this evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TDK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
427 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051-092130-
Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Walworth-Edmunds-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-
Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
427 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021 /327 PM MDT Thu Jul 8 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota and
north central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected. A few may become strong to
severe late this evening into the overnight hours. The highest chance
for large hail of 2 inches in diameter or greater, or winds over 75
mph, will be near and west of the Missouri River.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible, mainly Friday evening
into Saturday morning. The threat for strong to severe storms will
likely be along and south of I-90.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested. Weather spotters are encouraged
to submit reports to the National Weather Service in Aberdeen. The
public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook page, or our
Twitter feed.

MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-011-018>023-092130-
Traverse-Big Stone-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-Day-Spink-Clark-Codington-
Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-
427 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible, mainly overnight. A few
may become strong to severe, with gusty winds and mainly small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible, mainly Friday evening
into Saturday morning. Severe weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested. Weather spotters are encouraged
to submit reports to the National Weather Service in Aberdeen. The
public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook page, or our
Twitter feed.

KF