Damaging Winds in South Dakota, July 16, 2021

Name: Damaging Winds in South Dakota, July 16, 2021
Start: 2021-07-16T16:45
End: 2021-07-16T20:05
Location: South Dakota

July 16, 2021 · NWS UNR · 8 events in 3 counties and zones

A severe thunderstorm developed east of the Black Hills and tracked east-southeast across the west central South Dakota plains. Wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph were measured in the path of the storm.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

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Fire, smoke and dust
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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 8

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS UNR wrote it up.

A severe thunderstorm developed east of the Black Hills and tracked east-southeast across the west central South Dakota plains. Wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph were measured in the path of the storm.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Rapid City, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 4:14 PM MST, 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 16, 4:14 PM MST, 31 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
514 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 228 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021

Current surface map has an area of lower pressure over eastern
Montana with a trough/dry line extending southward along the
Wyoming/South Dakota border. Upper level analysis has a shortwave
ridge of high pressure over the Rockies, with a few weak impulses
rounding the ridge as seen on water vapor imagery. Radar has a
couple of isolated storms over the northern Black Hills and Bear
Lodge Mountains. Temperatures range from the mid 80s over the
Black Hills into the 90s on the plains. Dew Points are in the 60s
ahead of the dryline/surface trough.

Steep lapse rates and moderate instability with 1000-1500 j/kg
MLCAPE will likely contribute to the development of additional storms
this afternoon as the cap weakens. Expect storms to continue to develop
this afternoon along the dryline and over the hills before
spreading southeast through the afternoon and evening. Effective
bulk shear of 30 to 35 kts should be sufficient for a few storms
to maintain updrafts, with strong winds and some hail being the
main threats from stronger storms. PWs are 75% of average today
across the hills, with higher PW values over south central South
Dakota. Storm motion is around 20 kts.

On Saturday, expect to see another impulse round the upper ridge in
the afternoon and evening. Initially, expect some high based
showers/storms form over the hills and along the lee trough in the
afternoon and evening. If any storms are able to make it off the
terrain, greater low level moisture east of the hills and modest
shear, may be able to support isolated/scattered organized storms on
the South Dakota plains. Isolated large hail and damaging winds
would be possible with any of these storms.

By Sunday, upper ridge builds with the upper high over the area,
resulting in mainly dry conditions and above average temperatures.
Highs will generally be in the 90s, possibly hitting 100 by the
middle of next week. The hot and dry conditions should hold for most
of the extended period, with only an isolated shower/storm over the
higher terrain during this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued At 513 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021

Thunderstorms will continue into the evening moving from the Black
Hills into southwestern and south central South Dakota. Some
storms will have strong winds and large hail.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...MLS
AVIATION...MLS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 16, 10:49 AM MST, 5 hours 56 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1149 AM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-171300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Fall River-
Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-
1149 AM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021 /1249 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening. Some storms may become severe with damaging winds
and hail the primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday, but
severe storms are not anticipated at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

WYZ054>058-071-171300-
Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-Western Crook-
Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
1149 AM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening, but storms are not expected to become severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday
afternoon and evening, but severe storms are not anticipated at
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 16, 4:15 PM MST, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
515 PM MDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND GST     RAPID CITY ARPT         44.05N 103.05W
07/16/2021  M56 MPH          PENNINGTON         SD   ASOS

0504 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WSW FAIRBURN          43.68N 103.26W
07/16/2021  M51 MPH          CUSTER             SD   MESONET

&&

WFO UNR

Local storm report, Jul 16, 4:18 PM MST, 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
518 PM MDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     HAIL             6 SW HERMOSA            43.79N 103.29W
07/16/2021  E1.75 INCH       CUSTER             SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MLS

Local storm report, Jul 16, 4:20 PM MST, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
520 PM MDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     HAIL             6 W HERMOSA             43.82N 103.31W
07/16/2021  M1.25 INCH       CUSTER             SD   COCORAHS

&&

MLS

Local storm report, Jul 16, 4:22 PM MST, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
522 PM MDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     HAIL             5 NNW FAIRBURN          43.75N 103.24W
07/16/2021  M2.00 INCH       CUSTER             SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL RANGED FROM PEA SIZE UP TO 2 INCH IN DIAMETER.
            HAILED FROM 513 PM TO 519 PM.

&&

MLS

Local storm report, Jul 16, 4:25 PM MST, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
525 PM MDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             2 W HAYWARD             43.87N 103.38W
07/16/2021  M2.25 INCH       PENNINGTON         SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL OCCURRED FROM 450 PM TO 505 PM. 0.38 INCHES OF
            RAIN. RAIN ENDED AT 522 PM.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

MLS

Local storm report, Jul 16, 4:29 PM MST, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
529 PM MDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     HAIL             5 NNW FAIRBURN          43.75N 103.24W
07/16/2021  M2.00 INCH       CUSTER             SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL RANGED FROM PEA SIZE UP TO 2 INCH IN DIAMETER.
            HAILED FROM 513 PM TO 519 PM. HALF INCH OF RAIN.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

MLS

The radar

The Rapid City radar (KUDX), 38 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:45 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

8 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Thunderstorm Wind, Pennington

When: July 16, 4:45 PM MST
Where: Pennington County, 5 mi N of Scenic
Measured: 52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 43.852, -102.550

Wind gusts were estimated at 60 mph.

Thunderstorm Wind, Pennington

When: July 16, 5:09 PM MST
Where: Pennington County, 3 mi NW of Wasta
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 44.101, -102.493

Thunderstorm Wind, Pennington

When: July 16, 5:25 PM MST
Where: Pennington County, 7.6 mi S of Wall
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 43.880, -102.240

Thunderstorm Wind, Jackson

When: July 16, 5:41 PM MST
Where: Jackson County, Interior
Measured: 52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 43.720, -101.980

One inch diameter tree branches were broken and shingles blown off a house.

Thunderstorm Wind, Jackson

When: July 16, 5:50 PM MST
Where: Jackson County, 4 mi E of Cactus Flats
Measured: 72 kt (83 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 43.830, -101.820

Thunderstorm Wind, Jackson

When: July 16, 6:00 PM MST
Where: Jackson County, Cedar Pass
Measured: 61 kt (70 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 43.750, -101.950

A recreational vehicle and trailer were tipped over at Cedar Pass Campground.

Thunderstorm Wind, Jackson

When: July 16, 6:36 PM MST
Where: Jackson County, Interior
Measured: 61 kt (70 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 43.720, -101.980

Three inch diameter tree branches were broken and power poles were downed by the wind.

Thunderstorm Wind, Mellette

When: July 16, 8:05 PM CST
Where: Mellette County, 5 mi ESE of Norris
Measured: 52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 43.442, -101.108

The spotter estimated wind gusts at 60 mph.

What these are

Thunderstorm Wind: Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in South Dakota in 2021 Every state in 2021 This day in weather history Warnings in South Dakota, July 2021

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 969273, 969276, 969280, 969277, 969278, 969279, 969281, 969282.