What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 28, 6:26 PM EST, 1 hour 51 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 28, 6:26 PM EST, 1 hour 51 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
726 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this afternoon into this
evening increasing shower and thunderstorm chances for the area. A
few isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out with this
front. Saturday isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
behind the departing front. Sunday into early next week high
pressure will return leading to drier and cooler conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
600 PM Update...Convective activity is remaining sub-severe and
rather spare currently. There is a semi-defined line of storms with
gusty outflows across ern TN which will move into the wrn NC mtns
over the next couple hours. Have predictive SPSs in place ahead of
this line, which still looks well placed.
An upper trof dropping down over the Midwest and attendant
short wave moving over the lower OH Valley region this evening
should drive a sfc boundary into the region from the west
overnight. A vort lobe out ahead of the main trof axis, combined
with some weak upper divergence in the right entrance region of
the jet, should enhance the coverage of convection across the
region mainly this evening. The convection allowing models show
the coverage peaking during the evening hours from west to east.
Of note is the Marginal Risk from SPC that runs up to the I-85
corridor, which is accepted on general principles because of a
boundary moving in at this time of year. The relative lack of
sfc-based CAPE after sunset, generally less than 500 J/kg, will
be a limiting factor for the severe chances. Overnight, the
precip coverage will shift eastward and taper off east of the
mtns as the front moves east, while precip prob remains fairly
high along the TN border where an upslope flow develops. The
upslope flow is maintained through Saturday as the upper system
lifts to the upper OH Valley, keeping a low level NW flow in
play. Some shower/thunderstorm activity should spill over the
mtns in VA and make its way down into the NW Piedmont of NC. At
this time, think the convection will stay N of metro Charlotte.
High temps on Saturday should get knocked down two categories
compared to Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2:30 PM EDT Friday: An upper level positively tilted
trough will be approaching the CWA at the start of the short term
forecast period while the cold front is draped along the coast of
the Carolinas. This trough will track through the CWA throughout the
day Sunday lifting northeast out of the area by Sunday night while
the cold front continues tracking east offshore the Carolinas. This
trough could lead to a slight chance for isolated showers behind the
departing FROPA Saturday evening into Sunday afternoon from the NC
mtns into portions of the NC Piedmont. Otherwise high pressure will
build in behind the departing cold front Sunday into Monday leading
to much drier conditions and cooler temps while a low pressure
system tracks across the Southern Plains. High temps will return to
below normal Sunday thanks to N'ly and NW'ly flow at the sfc and
aloft.These cooler temps will be a much needed relief after seeing
highs in or near 90 for locations outside the mtns the last several
days. Highs will be closer to normal on Monday with upper 70s to mid
80s outside the mtns and low 70s to low 80s across the mtns. Higher
elevations may see slightly cooler highs for Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday: High pressure will be in place across the
Mid-Atlantic states to start the extended. A low pressure system
located over the Southern Plains Tuesday will track northeastward
into the Midwest thoughout the extended period. Although this system
will remain to our north and west, the warm front associated with
the upper low will lead to southerly flow at the mid-levels as early
as Tuesday afternoon. This southerly flow is expected to strengthen
and dominate Wednesday into Friday allowing for moisture to increase
across the SE CONUS. In response, shower and thunderstorm chances
are expected to become widespread towards the second half of the
long term. Currently global models show the best coverage for shower
and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. Depending on how models
handle this incoming low pressure system, we could finally see some
much needed measurable rainfall late next week. High temps will
remain near normal through the extended period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere...The forecast area will remain in a
convective threat thru the evening and early overnight as an active
cold front crosses the region. Have timed the front and better tstm
potential with TEMPOS at all TAF sites and kept lingering VCSH thru
05z or so most sites. Not much of a fog threat as winds will remain
elevated, but stable StCu could develop behind the front and bring
MVFR to possibly IFR CIGS at KAVL, HKY and and the Upstate terminals
of KGSP and KGMU. Flight conds will improve to VFR aft daybreak all
sites and skies shud become SCT during the afternoon outside the
mtns and KHKY. Low-end w/ly to wnw/ly gusts are possible aft noon
and will be more likely at KAVL and KAND.
Outlook: VFR conditions are anticipated through the weekend with
only sparse diurnal activity expected.
Confidence Table...
23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 91% High 95%
KGSP High 100% High 91% Low 59% High 100%
KAVL High 100% Med 77% Med 63% High 100%
KHKY High 100% High 91% Low 59% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 91% Low 59% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...AP
NEAR TERM...PM/SBK
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...SBKHazardous weather outlook, May 28, 3:08 PM EST, 5 hours 9 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
408 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-292015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
408 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms are likely to continue this evening. The
main threats from these storms will be cloud-to-ground lightning and
strong to possibly damaging straight line winds.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.
MPR
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 28, 6:04 PM EST, 2 hours 13 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
704 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021
NCZ033-282330-
Avery NC-
704 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AVERY COUNTY UNTIL 730
PM EDT...
At 704 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Beech Mountain, moving east at 50 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Banner Elk, Elk Park, Beech Mountain In Avery County, Sugar Mountain,
Seven Devils, Grandfather Mountain State Park and Minneapolis.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3627 8189 3625 8190 3624 8190 3623 8191
3621 8190 3619 8188 3619 8186 3616 8183
3611 8181 3610 8179 3611 8203 3612 8203
3629 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 267DEG 44KT 3621 8195
HGSpecial weather statement, May 28, 6:31 PM EST, 1 hour 46 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
731 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021
NCZ068-SCZ008-290000-
Cleveland NC-Cherokee SC-
731 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN CLEVELAND AND CHEROKEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...
At 731 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southwest of Gaffney, moving northeast at 30 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Shelby, Gaffney, Boiling Springs NC, Blacksburg, Grover, Patterson
Springs, Earl, Lattimore, Cherokee Falls and Draytonville.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3490 8165 3490 8166 3495 8176 3503 8179
3504 8180 3534 8164 3520 8136 3489 8164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 210DEG 26KT 3501 8170
HGSpecial weather statement, May 28, 7:05 PM EST, 1 hour 12 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
805 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021
GAZ010-017-018-SCZ001-004-290030-
Rabun GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Greater Oconee SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
805 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT STEPHENS...HABERSHAM...SOUTH
CENTRAL RABUN AND SOUTHWESTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...
At 805 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles west of Clarkesville, or 5 miles northwest of Demorest, moving
east at 50 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Clarkesville, Cornelia, Demorest, Mount Airy, Tallulah Falls,
Lake Rabun, Lakemont, Tallulah Gorge State Park and Long Creek.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3451 8366 3454 8362 3460 8365 3462 8364
3465 8366 3467 8365 3472 8363 3488 8320
3452 8307 3452 8308 3453 8308 3454 8311
3452 8313 3450 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 257DEG 42KT 3461 8363
HGSpecial weather statement, May 28, 7:08 PM EST, 1 hour 9 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
808 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021
GAZ010-NCZ062-063-SCZ001-290045-
Rabun GA-Southern Jackson NC-Macon NC-Oconee Mountains SC-
808 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN RABUN...SOUTHEASTERN
MACON...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND NORTHERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 845
PM EDT...
At 808 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northwest of Clayton, or 4 miles northwest of Black Rock
Mountain State Park, moving east at 50 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Clayton, Highlands, Mountain City, Dillard, Sky Valley, Cashiers,
Lake Jocassee, Devils Fork State Park, Black Rock Mountain State Park
and Tiger.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3499 8355 3500 8348 3500 8352 3502 8352
3516 8300 3515 8298 3513 8298 3508 8304
3505 8306 3503 8301 3505 8294 3501 8293
3499 8294 3497 8292 3491 8290 3491 8291
3484 8353 3495 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 257DEG 42KT 3495 8347
HGSpecial weather statement, May 28, 7:24 PM EST, 53 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
824 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021
GAZ010-017-018-SCZ001-004-010-290100-
Rabun GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
824 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT STEPHENS...EASTERN HABERSHAM...
SOUTH CENTRAL RABUN...WEST CENTRAL ANDERSON AND OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL
900 PM EDT...
At 824 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Toccoa, moving east at 40 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Seneca, Walhalla, Westminster, Avalon, Tallulah Falls, Salem,
Lake Rabun, Tallulah Gorge State Park and Lakemont.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3491 8292 3476 8289 3474 8290 3474 8289
3450 8284 3449 8305 3450 8306 3450 8307
3452 8309 3453 8308 3454 8311 3449 8316
3448 8348 3475 8352
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 258DEG 34KT 3461 8341
HGSpecial weather statement, May 28, 7:46 PM EST, 31 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
846 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021
GAZ018-026-028-SCZ001-002-004-005-010-290130-
Hart GA-Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Pickens Mountains SC-
Greater Pickens SC-Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
846 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...
SOUTHEASTERN STEPHENS...NORTHERN HART...NORTHWESTERN ANDERSON...
PICKENS AND OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...
At 846 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 9 miles east of Clayton to 6 miles northeast of
Carnesville, and moving east at 35 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Anderson, Clemson, Seneca, Walhalla, Pickens, Homeland Park, Central,
Northlake, Pendleton and Liberty.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and very heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3441 8318 3486 8325 3487 8324 3488 8324
3488 8321 3489 8320 3492 8316 3493 8316
3494 8311 3495 8313 3499 8310 3500 8310
3509 8279 3507 8278 3507 8277 3505 8275
3505 8272 3475 8262 3443 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 252DEG 30KT 3488 8323 3445 8316
HG