Rip Current in Puerto Rico, March 2, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
502 PM AST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Extended periods under the influence of drier air will
maintain generally fair and stable weather conditions during the
next few days. The occasional patch of moisture will bring
isolated to scattered shower activity, but significant rainfall
accumulations are not anticipated. By Friday into early next week,
an increase in moisture content with a better chance for showers
can be expected as an induced surface trough approaches the area.
Further weakening of the wind flow is expected during the next
few days, with winds favoring a more southeast flow by the latter
part of the workweek into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...

With extended periods of drier air influencing the local weather
conditions, a general fair and stable pattern will prevail during
the next few days. However, the occasional patch of moisture
embedded in the trade winds will bring isolated to scattered
shower activity, with highest impact anticipated for portions of
eastern Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands during the overnight
and early morning hours. Afternoon convection, if any, will
cluster along the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico,
with a slight chance for shower developing downwind from the local
islands and Sierra de Luquillo. Since mid to upper level ridging
will maintain unfavorable conditions aloft, with a relatively
strong trade wind cap around 850 mb, significant rainfall
accumulations nor flooding are expected through the period. At the
surface, a moderate to locally fresh east- northeast wind flow
will continue through tonight. Thereafter, winds will gradually
shift more from the east-southeast on Wednesday and from the
south-southeast on Thursday as a surface high pressure migrates
eastward into the North Atlantic and a cold front approaches the
region from the north. Under southeasterly winds, warmer
temperatures can be expected, with upper 80s possible across
coastal areas by Wednesday and Thursday.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday...

.FROM PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM AST Tue Mar 2 2021/

The mid-level ridge over the region is forecast to weaken by
Friday, but it is expected to build and strengthen once again
over the central Atlantic. Meanwhile, an amplifying mid to upper
level trough over the western Atlantic will extend into the
northeastern Caribbean. A surface front is expected to remain well
north of the region, while an induced pre-frontal trough is
expected to develop just west of the local area, promoting a weak
and moist southerly wind flow on Friday and Saturday. Although
global models are not as aggressive as last night solutions,
precipitable water (PWAT) content is forecast to remain just above
climatology around 1.40 inches. Therefore, expect diurnally
induced afternoon showers to develop over the interior and
northern sections of PR, due to the light steering winds, slow
moving showers could lead to minor flooding.

On Sunday, trade winds are forecast to return to around 15-20 kts
and overall fair weather conditions are expected with afternoon
showers developing over western PR. For early next week, another
induced surface trough is forecast to develop over the local area
and increase shower development across the islands. PWAT content
is expected to continue above climatology at 1.40-1.50 inches
through midweek, favoring afternoon shower development over
western PR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected for the next 24 hours. Brief -SHRA may be
possible in the vicinity of the local terminals, but no significant
hazards are expected. The local winds will be from the E to ENE at
15 to 20 knots with occasional gusts through 02/22Z. The winds will
gradually decrease to around 5-10 knots overnight as they become
more easterly. However, the local winds will increase once again up
to 15 knots after 03/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...Although marine conditions have improved, small craft
operators are urged to exercise caution across most of the local
waters due to seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots. A
northerly swell is forecast to invade the Atlantic waters and
local passages by the end of the workweek, but seas are expected
to remain below small craft criteria. There is a high risk of rip
currents for beaches along the northeastern coast of Puerto Rico,
Culebra, and eastern St. Croix through this afternoon, and beaches
along the northwest to San Juan and vicinity coast through late
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  72  85  72  85 /  40  40  30  20
STT  73  83  74  84 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for Culebra-
     Northeast.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for North Central-
     Northwest-San Juan and Vicinity.

VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for St Croix-
     St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...WS
LONG TERM....ICP
PUBLIC DESK...CVB

Perspectivas sobre Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR
355 AM AST martes 2 de marzo de 2021

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-030800-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central-
Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-
Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-Las aguas costeras
cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y Caribe-
355 AM AST martes 2 de marzo de 2021

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Viento...Se esperan vientos sostenidos en exceso a 20 mph (17 nudos)
para las aguas y sectores costeros.

.Oleaje...Se espera oleaje peligroso de hasta 8 pies para las aguas
mar afuera del Atlantico y el Pasaje de Anegada. Se espera oleaje de
hasta 7 pies para la mayoria de las otras aguas.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas
para  la costa norte de Puerto Rico y Culebra.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...miercoles a lunes

Se espera oleaje de hasta 6 pies hasta el fin de semana,
especialmente sobre las aguas mar afuera y pasajes. Se espera riesgo
moderado de corrientes marinas para los proximos dias.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se espera activacion amplia de observadores. Favor de reportar
cualquier informacion sobre vientos, oleaje y corrientes marinas al
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan mientras siguen las
indicaciones de las autoridades locales y estatales.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-030800-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-
Santa Cruz-Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas
costeras adyacentes del Caribe-
355 AM AST martes 2 de marzo de 2021

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses y las aguas costeras adyacentes.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Viento...Se esperan vientos sostenidos en exceso a 20 mph (17 nudos)
para las aguas y sectores costeros.

.Oleaje...Se espera oleaje peligroso de hasta 8 pies para las aguas
mar afuera del Atlantico y el Pasaje de Anegada. Se espera oleaje de
hasta 7 pies para la mayoria de las otras aguas.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas
para la costa noroeste de San Tomas y para el este de Santa Cruz.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...miercoles a lunes

Se espera oleaje de hasta 6 pies hasta el fin de semana,
especialmente sobre las aguas mar afuera y pasajes. Se espera riesgo
moderado de corrientes marinas para los proximos dias.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se espera activacion amplia de observadores. Sin embargo, favor
de reportar cualquier informacion sobre vientos, oleaje y corrientes
marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan mientras
siguen las indicaciones de las autoridades locales y estatales.