NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 2, 2:56 PM EST, 1 hour 14 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 2:56 PM EST, 1 hour 14 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
356 PM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure centered over New Jersey will move offshore through
tonight however an upper level low will continue to impact the area
through at least Saturday. High pressure should start to build in
southeast of the region by Sunday. A Bermuda high pattern will
likely develop next week with a cold front moving south into the
region around the middle to end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
An area of low pressure was located across the Tri-State area of
Northern New Jersey, southern New York, and western Connecticut.
This low will continue to drift southward through this afternoon and
evening, and shift offshore of New tonight. Meanwhile, an associated
cold front will continue to slowly drift eastward and offshore
through this evening as well. At the same time, a surface trough
will develop to the northwest of the low as it shifts southward and
linger near the area through at least Saturday. At the same time, a
cold mid/upper trough will continue to slowly meander eastward
across Pennsylvania tonight, then across northern New Jersey through
Saturday, and to the northeast across southern New England Saturday
night. Several short wave/vorticity impulses will move across the
area this afternoon through tonight, and again on Saturday.
Scattered showers are expected to develop across the area for the
remainder of this afternoon and tonight, but may become more focused
across northern New Jersey and northeastern Pennsylvania later this
evening as the surface trough becomes more well defined. PW values
remain near one inch, so a period of moderate to heavy downpours
will be possible. Another concern for this afternoon will be the
potential for marginally severe hail and/or wind gusts. CAPE values
near 1000 J/kg will contribute to slight instability, and there is
sufficient shear with values 35-40 knots. With the cold mid/upper
low approaching, freezing levels/wet-bulb zero heights will lower.
Also, DCAPE values approach 1000 J/kg. Hi-Res guidance indicates
isolated to scattered convection, so we remain in a marginal risk
for severe weather for this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
will become less widespread overnight as daytime instability wanes,
but there will remain a chance for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms overnight due to the amount of moisture and surface
and mid/upper troughs nearby.
On Saturday, the mid/upper low continues to shift eastward, while
the surface trough remains near the area. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will likely develop across the are again. PW values
remain around 1.00-1.25 inches, so periods of moderate to heavy
downpours will remain possible again. There remains some instability
with CAPES near 500 J/kg, so it would not be surprising to see some
small hail or gusty winds again with any of the stronger storms.
Any showers and thunderstorms are expected to weaken around sunset
as instability wanes and the rest the overnight Saturday is expected
to be dry.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sunday will be a transition day as an upper level low gradually
moves northeast from eastern New England into the Canadian
Maritimes. This will place the area near the western fringes of this
system but there still may be just enough moisture and instability
to touch off some diurnally driven scattered afternoon/early evening
showers or storms. However the majority of the time it should be
precipitation free and many areas may not see any rain at all with
at least some partial sunshine returning. Temperatures will also
warm up a bit compared to Saturday with highs mostly in the upper
70s to low 80s.
The upper low pulls farther away Sunday night into Monday as
shortwave ridging moves in from the west. At the surface, the area
will be back into a SW flow between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and low pressure moving through northern Ontario. This will
allow temperatures to warm to the middle to high 80s for most areas
with some increase in humidity as well. But all and all, pretty
seasonable for this time of year but with hotter and more humid
weather to follow beyond this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main story for this period will be a return to high heat and
humidity for Tuesday and Wednesday with increasing chances for
showers/storms by late Wednesday and beyond as a cold front
approaches from the north. We will also need to closely monitor the
forecast track of Tropical Cyclone Elsa as the storm or its remnants
could impact the region by late next week.
In terms of the details, low pressure moves from northern Ontario
into Quebec Monday night into Tuesday allowing a SW flow to continue
pumping in higher temperatures and humidity levels.
By Tuesday afternoon, many areas should see highs reaching back into
the low to mid 90s with dew points reaching the upper 60s to low 70s
making it feel very humid. Heat indices could once again reach or
exceed 100, especially near the urban corridor. By Tuesday afternoon
there could be some scattered afternoon showers/storms but the
chances for these should be mainly N/W of the urban corridor as the
front will still be a ways off. However beyond this time chances for
showers/storms increase by Wednesday as the cold front moves south.
Wednesday itself though could still be quite hot and humid. The
front could end up being slow moving with showers/storms possibly
once again for Thursday as well. Also, Elsa or its remnants could be
moving north toward the region by around this time however there
remains a lot of uncertainty in the storms forecast track and
intensity. However this all said, between the slow moving front and
possible impacts from Elsa mid to late next week could be quite
active and unsettled especially in terms of a heavy rain threat.
Temperatures should at least trend cooler though with highs back
into the 80s by next Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Today...A cold front continues to slowly shift southeast across the
area and is currently located across southern New Jersey, central
Delaware, and eastern Maryland. Ceilings are improving to VFR behind
the cold front, and will continue to improve at ACY and MIV through
the afternoon. Once the lingering lower ceilings dissipate, mostly
VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon. However,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, though coverage
should be limited. We have added vicinity thunderstorms along with
showers into the afternoon for all TAF sites. If a shower or
thunderstorm impact a TAF site, it could briefly lower conditions,
but confidence in this occuring is low enough not to include in the
TAFs at this time. Winds remain variable near the front and the
showers associated with it, but should shift to more westerly or
northwesterly as the front settles to the southeast, although winds
could remain southwesterly for ACY and MIV depending on the speed of
the cold front. Wind speeds should be 5-10 knots.
Moderate confidence on most aspects of the forecast, but low
confidence that any TAF site will be affected by showers and
thunderstorms.
Tonight...VFR begins the tonight period, although isolated showers
and thunderstorms could linger near the area for a few hours. MVFR,
then IFR ceilings are expected to develop across northern New Jersey
and northeast Pennsylvania and spread southward through the night,
eventually impacting all TAF sites.
Winds will shift to the north then northeast 5-10 knots or less
through the night. Moderate confidence
Saturday...MVFR or IFR conditions will begin the first half of the
day, before some improvement later in the afternoon, with some sites
possibly returning to VFR during the afternoon. Winds will mostly
north to northwest 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.
Saturday night...VFR may begin the period, before MVFR or IFR
ceilings possibly develop overnight. Winds become light and variable
during the evening and overnight.
Outlook...
Sunday - Sunday night...Mostly VFR conditions are expected. However,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the day,
especially during the afternoon and early evening. If any showers or
thunderstorms move over a TAF site, brief MVFR or even IFR
conditions are possible. W/NW winds generally 5 to 8 knots or less.
Moderate confidence on most aspects of the forecast, but low
confidence on any TAF site being affected by a shower or storm.
Monday-Monday night... Mainly VFR. Light winds in the morning
becoming southwest at 5 to 10 kt, then light and variable again at
night. A slight chance of an afternoon shower or storm, mainly west
of PHL. Moderate confidence.
Tuesday-Tuesday night... Mainly VFR. Southwest wind 5 to 10 kt.
An afternoon or evening shower or storm is possible, especially west
of PHL. Moderate confidence.
Wednesday...Increasing chances for shower/storms by the afternoon
with MVFR/IFR conditions possible in any storms. SW winds 5 to 10
knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions are expected to remain mostly below advisory levels
through Saturday night. However, seas are forecast to reach 5 feet
on the northern New Jersey waters on Saturday into Saturday evening,
so we've issued a Small Craft Advisory here. Winds will also
occasionally gust around 20 knots through Saturday night. There is
also a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Outlook...
Winds and seas should stay below SCA conditions Sunday, though seas
on the northern NJ shore could get close to 5 ft.
Monday-Wednesday... Sub-SCA conditions are expected to continue.
South-southwest winds gusting 20 kt or less and seas 3 to 4 ft.
Rip Currents...
South to southwest winds continue through the day. There should
be a medium period southerly swell today. The more favorably
oriented central/southern New Jersey coast has a MODERATE risk
for rip currents, while a LOW risk remains for Delaware and for
the Monmouth County coast.
For tomorrow, winds should be mostly off shore, from the
northwest. Therefore, at this point, we are forecasting a low
risk of rip currents on Saturday.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to midnight EDT
Saturday night for ANZ450-451.
&&
Synopsis...Fitzsimmons
Near Term...Robertson
Short Term...Fitzsimmons
Long Term...Fitzsimmons
Aviation...Fitzsimmons/Robertson
Marine...Fitzsimmons/Robertson