A moisture-laden system developed over the Gulf States and pushes up the spine of the Appalachians, bring a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain to central Pennsylvania from the evening of February 15 into the morning of February 16. 25 of ice accretion.
Every event with a place to put it; 18 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
A moisture-laden system developed over the Gulf States and pushes up the spine of the Appalachians, bring a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain to central Pennsylvania from the evening of February 15 into the morning of February 16. The Lower Susquehanna Valley quickly went over to plain rain after a brief period of freezing rain, while the central mountains had a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain with many locations receiving over 0.25 of ice accretion. North of I-80, there was 1-2 inches of snow and sleet followed by freezing rain.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 15, 5:47 AM EST, 1 hour 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 547 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Winter storms will impact Central Pennsylvania and bring snow and mixed precipitation Monday into Tuesday and again Thursday into Friday. Temperatures are forecast to remain below average into the second half of February. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Busy morning. We will issue an SPS to cover some patchy freezing drizzle across the eastern 2/3 of the CWA where GOES-16 derived cloud top phase is supercooled. Radar trends confirm initial period of snow developing and expanding northeast from southern OH across the NW Alleghenies. The HRRR/HREF and other hires models all show a period of mainly light snow this morning across the northwest 1/2 of the CWA before taping off this afternoon. A light sleet/zr mix is possible on the southern fringe of the pcpn, but should not amount to much. Expect a lull in the wintry precip into the early evening before the heaviest snow and ice accumulation occurs tonight into early Tuesday morning. Heavy snow and light to moderate icing are expected to impact CPA through tonight as low pressure tracks from the Gulf of Mexico northeast along the Appalachians into New England. Incorporating the latest 15/0000 UTC model and WPC/NBM guidance, the main trend was again toward more ice (sleet/freezing rain) across the southern 2/3 of the CWA. Working from north to south...in terms of headlines, we added Elk & Cameron Counties to the winter storm warning with total snow amounts around 6" followed by <0.10" of ice. The initial winter storm warning for heavy snow remains in tact across the northern tier with 6-8" amounts expected; however we can't rule out a glaze of ice reaching as far north as the US-6 corridor. Total snow amounts continue to trend lower near and south of I-80 with more sleet and freezing rain ptypes expected during the bulk of precipitation window tonight into early Tuesday morning (00-12Z Tue.). The sleet accumulation potential appears maximized over this area and may be more impactful than the heavy snow in the northern tier. Ice (zr) is the primary concern along the US-22 and PA Turnpike (Laurel Highlands) eastward into the lower Susquehanna Valley/I-81 corridor. We converted the previous watch area to an advisory which should verify on the high end given mixed ptype combo and moderate ice accumulation. Some of the ridges over south central PA could get close to 0.25" ice, but thinking was that 0.10 to 0.20" accretion was the high probability outcome given marginal temperatures and higher pcpn rates. Speaking of temperatures, we were keen to stay colder than NBM and closer to a hires blend especially later tonight into early Tuesday morning as the CAD wedge starts to erode. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Mixed pcpn will come to an end fairly quickly early Tuesday morning, as a gusty westerly flow overspreads the area behind departing storm. Temp trends appear to be steady or non-diurnal over the Alleghenies with highs projected to occur in the morning. Blended guidance takes maxes into the low 40s over the lower Susquehanna Valley early in the afternoon. The colder west to NW flow should produce some snow showers over the usual locations downwind of Lake Erie and in the Laurel Highlands. High pressure builds into the area tomorrow night with cold minT in the single digits NW to around 20F in the southeast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Zonal flow aloft will lead to a relatively pleasant and dry day for Wednesday. This dry weather will not last for long though, as the active weather pattern brings more precipitation to the region for Thursday morning. Another significant storm system is brewing for the end of the week. An extremely deep trough that cuts through the center of the US will contribute to the creation of a strong surface low pressure system. The track of the center of the low varies from the GFS to the Euro, which will substantially impact the precipitation type for the majority of this storm. The Euro has the low tracking to the south of the Commonwealth, leading to a mostly snow event, and the GFS has the low tracking to the west and north of the Commonwealth, making this a mixed precipitation and rain event. Thus, a lot of uncertainty remains with this event. Snow will likely move in from the southwest Thursday morning and overspread the Commonwealth, before a transition to a wintry mix Thursday evening and Friday morning. The southeast stays warm, so Friday looks to be rain in the southeast with a tight gradient that runs southwest to northeast. The position of this gradient remains uncertain and thus the precipitation type and transitions remain uncertain at this time. However, there does appear to be more moisture associated with this event, so larger quantities of precipitation are favored. Cold air moves in as the low moves out, so snow will likely wrap up this event for Friday night. Precipitation should be over by Saturday morning, leading to a relatively dry weekend aside from a few snow flurries in the western mountains. Sunday is also mild and dry. Enjoy the lull in precipitation over the weekend as long- range guidance hints at another active weather pattern for next week. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low cigs will continue to move in from the SW through daybreak, with most locations MVFR by 13z. The Laurels will likely be IFR by that time. The first chance for light snow and sleet will come to the western and central terminals between 11z and 13z and last into the afternoon. JST and BFD will likely see vsbys fall into the LIFR range after 15z as moderate snow moves through western terminals. Precip will be lighter towards the south and east. The SErn terminals (MDT and LNS) will be affected the least by precip on Monday, and are expected to remain MVFR until late afternoon or early evening Mon. After a lull in the precip in the mid to late afternoon hours Mon, a more widespread batch of moderate precip will overspread central PA around 00z Tue bringing a period of mod to heavy SN in the BFD area, and a wintry mix elsewhere. An intensifying LLJ will bring a shot of LLWS to western terminals after 00z Tue, as srly flow at 2kft intensifies to 45kt+. Outlook... Tue...LIFR in snow/mixed precip. Sig icing possible anywhere S of I-80. Tues PM-Wed...IFR mainly NW, then improving to VFR/MVFR briefly. Thu-Fri...Restrictions likely. Wintry mix, may change to rain SE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ012- 017>019-024>028-033>036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ004>006-010- 011-037. && SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Gutierrez AVIATION...Dangelo/Colbert
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 432 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021 PAZ012-017>019-024>028-033>036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066-160945- Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria- Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union- Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill- Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 432 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. Another winter storm bring additional snow and ice accumulation Thursday into Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ004>006-010-011-037-160945- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Tioga- 432 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. Another winter storm will bring additional snow and ice accumulation Thursday into Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. MS
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service State College PA 547 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021 PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-151200- Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre- Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming- Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin- Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 547 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021 ...ICY SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED BRIDGES AND ROADS... Very light freezing drizzle has developed over a portion of central Pennsylvania. With air temperatures below freezing, this may lead to a few slippery spots on untreated roads and elevated surfaces. Sidewalks may also be slick. Please use extra care driving across the region this morning. MC/MS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
11 winter storm, 7 ice storm. Local standard time, as filed.
A winter storm produced a quarter of an inch of ice accumulation, plus half an inch of sleet and an inch of snow to Warren County from February 15-16, 2021.
A winter storm produced a quarter of an inch of ice accumulation, plus half an inch of sleet and 2 to 4 inches of snow to McKean County from February 15-16, 2021.
A winter storm produced a quarter of an inch of ice accumulation, plus half an inch of sleet and 2 to 4 inches of snow to Potter County from February 15-16, 2021.
A winter storm produced a quarter of an inch of ice accumulation, plus half an inch of sleet and 1 to 3 inches of snow to Tioga County from February 15-16, 2021.
A winter storm produced a quarter of an inch of ice accumulation, plus half an inch of sleet and 2 inches of snow to Elk County from February 15-16, 2021.
A winter storm produced a quarter of an inch of ice accumulation, plus half an inch of sleet and 1 to 2 inches of snow to Cameron County from February 15-16, 2021.
A winter storm produced a quarter of an inch of ice accumulation, plus half an inch of sleet and less than an inch of snow across northern Clinton County from February 15-16, 2021.
A winter storm produced a quarter of an inch of ice accumulation, plus half an inch of sleet and 2 to 4 inches of snow across Clearfield County from February 15-16, 2021.
A winter storm produced a quarter of an inch of ice accumulation, plus half an inch of sleet and an inch of snow across northern Centre County from February 15-16, 2021.
A winter storm produced a quarter of an inch of ice accumulation, plus half an inch of sleet and an inch of snow across northern Lycoming County from February 15-16, 2021.
A winter storm produced a quarter of an inch of ice accumulation, plus half an inch of sleet and an inch of snow across Sullivan County from February 15-16, 2021.
An ice storm produced between 0.25 and 0.40 inches of ice accumulation across southern Centre County from February 15-16, 2021.
An ice storm produced just over 0.25 inches of ice accumulation across Cambria County from February 15-16, 2021.
An ice storm produced between 0.25 and 0.50 inches of ice accumulation across Blair County from February 15-16, 2021.
An ice storm produced between 0.25 and 0.50 inches of ice accumulation across Somerset County from February 15-16, 2021.
An ice storm produced 0.25 inches of ice accumulation across Union County from February 15-16, 2021.
An ice storm produced 0.25 inches of ice accumulation across Snyder County from February 15-16, 2021.
An ice storm produced 0.25 inches of ice accumulation across Schuylkill County from February 15-16, 2021.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 944677, 944679, 944681, 944682, 944684, 944685, 944694, 944697, 944699, 944701, 944704, 944710, 944712, 944714, 944716, 944720, 944721, 944722.