An incoming front brought high winds to a few locations along the coast and one location east of the Cascades.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
An incoming front brought high winds to a few locations along the coast and one location east of the Cascades.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 17, 9:35 PM PST, 2 hours 29 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
935 PM PST Wed Nov 17 2021
.DISCUSSION...Some light shower activity is showing up on radar
off the Douglas and Coos County Coast. Given the dry airmass
currently in place it is most probable that these showers are
producing virga. Still, have advanced PoPs forward about three
hours. Otherwise, no changes were made to the forecast and no
major changes were observed in the extended forecast with the 00z
model runs, so please see the previous discussion for further
details. -Miles
&&
.AVIATION...17/06Z TAFs...High clouds from the incoming warm front
will move over the forecast area through the TAF period. We can't
rule out some fog forming in the valleys tonight. If fog does form,
it will have a low chance of becoming dense. There is potential for
LIFR ceilings at times within some of the valleys tonight,
especially within the Umpqua Valley.
By Thursday morning, the fog will begin to clear out. High clouds
will remain over many of the TAF sites with rain moving into the
coast by the late morning. The rain will continue to track
eastwards through the day. Look for IFR/MVFR visibilities and
ceilings within the heavier rain. In addition, there will also be
mountain obscurations as the front moves through.
&&
.MARINE...Updated 835 PM PST Wednesday 17 November 2021...Calmer
conditions are expected through tonight. Another strong frontal
system will bring southerly gales and very steep hazardous seas to
most of the outer waters Thursday morning into Thursday night before
moving onshore Friday. Close to shore small craft conditions are
likely.
Once the front moves onshore Thursday night, winds will shift from
south to north, with Hazardous Seas conditions remaining behind the
front. Moderate to occasionally strong north winds are expected
later Friday afternoon into at least Saturday night, before
gradually diminishing Sunday.
-Sven/Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 220 PM PST Wed Nov 17 2021/
SHORT TERM...Through Friday night 19/20 Nov 2021.
17/12Z NAM/GFS/EC in.
Some low clouds and fog persist over the Umpqua Basin this
afternoon. High clouds and some mid-level clouds are
overspreading the Medford forecast area from the west.
The hemispheric projection shows a five to six wave pattern
around the globe with a block over western Siberia and the eastern
anchor low over the northern Gulf of Alaska. The hemispheric
pattern is usually a progressive one, and that will be the case
for this part of the world despite the upstream block.
A long wave upper ridge over the area will bring continued dry
weather through tonight. The ridge axis will break to the east of
the Medford forecast area today, and flow aloft will turn
southwesterly. This will open the storm door once again, and a
short wave rotating around a Gulf of Alaska low will push the next
system onshore. First, a warm front will lift north through the
area Thursday, then the trailing cold front will move onshore
Thursday night into Friday. This will bring widespread, but mostly
light, precipitation to the area beginning Thursday. Snow levels
will be quite high with this system; generally above 6000 to 7000
feet when the significant precipitation is occurring, so
significant snow will be limited to the peaks.
The upper trough driving the front will move onshore Friday and
clear to the east of the area Friday evening. Post-frontal showers
will diminish Friday night, ending by daybreak Saturday.
Storm total rainfall will be in the 0.50 to 1.25 inch range along
the coast and over the Coast Range. Inland west side locations
will see 0.10 to 0.40 inches. The Cascades and Siskiyous will see
0.25 to 1.00 inches. The east side will get up to 0.40 inches on
the higher terrain while the valleys will see generally less than
0.10 inches. Only the highest peaks will see snow...up to around
3.0 inches.
The higher impact issue will be winds. Strong winds are likely
along the coast Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening, east
of the Cascades Thursday night into Friday, as well as in the
Shasta Valley Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. 700 mb
winds and gradients support Wind Advisory winds in the Shasta
Valley. East side 700 mb winds will top out at around 45 kt, so
Advisory criteria will likely not be met there except over some of
the peaks. It does not look like High Wind Warnings will be
necessary anywhere.
LONG TERM...Saturday 20 Nov through Wednesday 24 Nov 2021 (and
beyond). Energy on the back side of an upper trough will push
through the area on Saturday. Even so, upper ridging and a strong
surface high will set up just offshore of the PacNW with a thermal
trough in northern California. Offshore flow will induce rapid
drying of the air mass, so we are not expecting any precipitation.
The upper ridge will build even more strongly into the area on
Sunday. Even though we aren't expecting any rain/snow this
weekend, residual low-level moisture will likely remain trapped in
the valleys. So, we'll probably be dealing with low
clouds/fog/freezing fog again. Expect areas of higher terrain and
coastal areas to be sunnier and gradually turn milder this
weekend, while interior west side valleys stay a bit cooler due to
at least the morning low clouds/fog.
The flow aloft early next week will be mostly zonal. This will allow
a Pacific disturbance to move in with the next chance of rain
arriving at the coast/Umpqua on Monday, and then spreading inland to
the Cascades Monday night. Some light precip could linger into
Tuesday, mainly from the Cascades westward. This front looks weak
and is likely to produce relatively minor/nuisance impacts, mainly
from rain, but also perhaps some southerly breezes in advance of it
and light mountain snowfall north of Lake of the Woods. Upper ridging
will move back into the area mid next week with a period of dry
weather Wednesday.
Here's a sneak peek at late next week heading into Thanksgiving Day
and Thanksgiving weekend -- some deterministic solutions, including
the 12z operational GFS/ECMWF, are showing another system could
approach the coast as early as Thanksgiving Day with the potential
for an even wetter pattern heading into Thanksgiving weekend. But, a
deeper dive into the cluster analysis reveals only about 14% of the
solutions are showing this type of wetter pattern evolving. A
similar percentage (17%) of clusters show a dry pattern, with the
majority (69%) favoring something in between, which would translate
to a couple of fairly minor frontal systems with most impacts
remaining from the Cascades westward. It's still plenty far into the
future, so there's plenty of time to hone in on this, but this
hopefully will provide some insight into the possibilities heading
into the biggest travel week of the season. -Spilde
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Thursday for
ORZ021-022.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 PM Thursday to 4 AM PST Saturday
for ORZ021-022.
CA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for CAZ081.
Pacific Coastal Waters...
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Thursday for
PZZ350-356-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 PM Thursday to 4 AM PST Saturday
for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Gale Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Thursday for
PZZ350-356-370-376.The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Summit RAWS recorded gusts to 58 mph at 18/1703 PST and 19/0203 PST.
The Port Orford NOS/NWLON recorded a gust to 65 mph at 18/1436 PST and a gust to 62 mph at 18/1442 PST.
The ODOT sensor on Highway 101 at Humbug Mountain recorded a gust to 62 mph at 18/2000 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, November 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 986731, 986732, 986733.