Upper level high pressure dominated the weather across much of the western United States resulting in warm and dry conditions stretching from June into July.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PQR wrote it up.
Upper level high pressure dominated the weather across much of the western United States resulting in warm and dry conditions stretching from June into July.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 29, 9:15 AM PST, 3 hours 45 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
1015 AM PDT Thu Jul 29 2021
Updated Aviation Discussion
.SYNOPSIS...Hot weather for the interior lowlands next two days with
temperatures in the mid and upper 90s, with some locations in
reaching 100 degrees especially on Friday. It will turn cooler for
the weekend into next week but temperatures remain above normal.
Increasing monsoonal moisture will bring periods of showers and
potential thunderstorms primarily across the central Cascades and
extending into the northern Cascades through the weekend and likely
into the start of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...The big picture - Strong upper
level high pressure central US with upper level trough over the
northeast Pacific. The resulting weather for the PacNW is advection
of a warm and somewhat moist airmass into the area from the south to
southwest flow aloft. Today and Friday will be hottest days with some
cooling for Saturday. High temperatures for the interior lowlands
expected in the mid and upper 90s, but likely see temperatures around
100 on Friday, the mid 90s for Saturday. Overnight lows are expected
to be on the warm side low to mid 60 tonight and Friday night. But
note that the heat soaked urban areas as well as the Gorge will
likely have lows around 70 Friday night. The Heat Advisory continues
through Saturday. Models have changed little over the last 12 hours
so feel confident in the forecast. But one thing that might affect
the temperature forecast is cloud cover from expected convection next
couple of days. Friday night convection may bring enough cloud cover
over the valley to keep it warmer than current forecast. Though if
clouds arrive earlier than expected it'll moderate high temps.
The chance of thunder increases and expands today with NAM forecast
soundings suggesting 1000-1200 J/kg of CAPE along the Linn, Lane, and
up to Marion Co. Cascades, where surface heating will be maximized.
SPC 4-hour calibrated thunderstorm probability shows 30-40% chance
right along the crest today. Satellite shows a batch of moisture
moving north across central CA that'll shift into our area this
afternoon, so the ingredients are coming together. Friday is
currently looking to be both the hottest and most favorable day for
thunderstorms for all of the Oregon Cascades. The foothills and
Washington Cascades might also have a shot at seeing convection as
well. Various CAM forecast reflectivity shows larger area of showers
moving north along the Cascades Friday afternoon, but have backed
down the south WA Cascades. /mh
.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Tuesday...The GFS and CMC
suggest convection will develop Saturday evening and overspread
portions of the eastern Willamette Valley during the overnight
period, while the ECMWF keeps everything west of the Cascade crest
dry. The westward extent of any convection that forms will depend on
how much of an easterly component is present in the mid to upper-
level steering flow. At this time, a slight chance of thunder has
been added only for the Cascades, in accordance with NBM's most
recent guidance. If necessary, changes may be made to chances for
convection in upcoming forecasts.
Sunday and beyond, the pattern becomes more uncertain, with some
cluster solutions favoring a transition to zonal flow and others
suggesting a continuation of southerly flow into early next week.
One solution, comprised mostly of the CMC, suggests the low to our
northwest will drop into our area to lower heights and promote
cooler weather. NBM currently suggests high temperatures in the low
80s to low 90s in the Willamette Valley and 60s along the coast
through the end of the period. -Bumgardner
&&
.AVIATION...Currently, VFR under clear skies across most of the
forecast area. The exception at this time is the shallow marine
stratus/fog along the coast which is resulting in LIFR
conditions. With the shallow marine layer expect improvement to
VFR after 17Z Thursday, with breezy N winds gusting up to 25 kt
expected along the coast through 06Z Friday.
VFR conditions will persist through the current TAF period inland.
However, isolated showers may develop after 18Z Thursday and likely
persist through 06Z Friday along the Cascades. In addition to the
isolated showers, isolated thunderstorms are also possible along the
Cascades east of KEUG through the same time period. No significant
impacts are anticipated for the Willamette Valley at this time.
Expect IFR/LIFR conditions to return along the coast around 04Z
Friday as marine stratus is expected to return.
For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go
online to: https://weather.gov/zse
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR expected through the current TAF period,
with light to moderate NW SFC winds. Ground crews can expect a hot
afternoon with highs well into the 90s. Showers are possible along
the Cascades after 18Z Thursday through 06Z Friday. /42
&&
.MARINE...Typical summer pattern expected for the next several
days. Increased heating inland on Thursday should strengthen the
thermally induced low pressure over SW Oregon and NW California.
There is a chance cloud cover increases Thu afternoon which
could weaken the thermal trough, but most models show widespread
gusts to 25 kt across the waters. Thus we maintained a Small
Craft Advisory on Thu from noon through midnight for all waters,
extending overnight for the outer waters. Similar diurnal
northerly wind pattern is expected Friday into the weekend. Seas
will remain primarily wind-driven with background swells
generally remaining 3 ft or less through the weekend. Weagle/DDH
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for Central Oregon Cascade Foothills-Mt. Hood National
Forest West of Cascade Crest-North Oregon Cascade
Foothills-Willamette National Forest.
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for Cascade Foothills in
Lane County-Central Columbia River Gorge-Central
Willamette Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower
Columbia-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South
Willamette Valley-Upper Hood River Valley-Western Columbia
River Gorge.
Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
evening for Willamette National Forest.
WA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for Central Columbia
River Gorge-Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz
County-South Washington Cascade Foothills-Western Columbia
River Gorge.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM PDT Friday for
coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from
10 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight PDT tonight
for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR
out 10 NM.
&&
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www.twitter.com/NWSPortland1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Middle Fork Complex started in the Willamette National Forest on July 29th near 43.869 latitude, -122.409 longitude. The cause of the fires is undetermined.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 972754.