Flood in Oklahoma, May 1, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1228 AM CDT Sat May 1 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period though
clouds will be on the increase over the area. MVFR ceilings along
with a few showers will be possible beginning tomorrow afternoon
for KMLC, though the MVFR ceilings should mostly hold off until
after 0Z. Upper low will begin lifting northeast out of southern
Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening which will bring rain
chances and MVFR/IFR ceilings just outside of this TAF period.
Gusty southerly winds will also pick up tomorrow afternoon across
the region before tapering off some after sunset.

Bowlan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1004 PM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Scattered convection continues to gradually lift north through
northern TX, and we could see a few showers eventually move
into far southeast OK late tonight. Going forecast looks good
at this time with no update planned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  63  77  63 /  10  30  60  10
FSM   78  62  77  63 /  20  50  90  20
MLC   74  62  77  64 /  30  70  60  10
BVO   79  62  77  61 /  10  20  50  20
FYV   79  59  74  59 /  10  40  90  20
BYV   79  60  74  61 /   0  30  90  30
MKO   75  62  75  62 /  20  50  70  10
MIO   78  61  75  61 /   0  20  70  20
F10   75  62  76  63 /  20  50  60  10
HHW   72  62  77  65 /  40  80  70  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
447 PM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
447 PM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Showers and isolated thunderstorms will
expand across the region Saturday night through Sunday. The highest
rain chances will be across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Currently rainfall forecasts remain generally one half
inch or less for through Sunday. These rainfall amounts are unlikely
to raise flooding concerns, however the potential for locally higher
amounts will need to be monitored.

Severe weather potential will increase late Monday afternoon and
continue through Monday night ahead of the next cold front.
Currently locations along and east of Interstate 44 appear most
likely to experience strong to severe storms.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.