High Wind in Oklahoma, January 15, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
524 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 12Z
Saturday. Some areas of blowing dust will impact the three TAF
sites between about 15Z and 20Z to 21Z today with visibilities
near or above MVFR category. Low level wind shear at all three TAF
sites from 12Z to 15Z and 16Z today. Northwest winds 10 to 20
knots with some gusts near 30 knots will increase to around 25 to
35 knots with gusts near 40 to 45 knots after 15Z to 16Z today.
Northwest to north winds will decrease to around 10 to 20 knots by
00Z Saturday and then around 5 to 15 knots after 07Z to 09Z
Saturday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 347 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021/

SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow Night...

Wind continues to be the main story in the short term forecast
periods. Stout upper low currently over IL will slowly churn
eastward while an upper ridge builds off the CA coast. Consequently,
a strong upper jet will set up over the Panhandles, with progged
values of 60/70/100 knots at 850/700/500mb, respectively, with 00z
model initialization of the upper jet roughly in line with RAOBs
upstream. Guidance is in good agreement that the 850/700mb jet will
set up over the northeastern Panhandles, so am still expecting the
strongest winds there. RAP/HRRR Bufkit soundings suggest winds at
the top of the boundary layer in our northeast will be in the 50 to
70 knot range for several hours beginning as early as 15z, which
could yield surface gusts of 65 mph should the highest end solutions
verify. Have thus kept the High Wind Warning across the northeastern
Texas and eastern Oklahoma Panhandles. Big remaining question is the
southwestward extent of the highest winds. Progged soundings suggest
peak gusts around 40 and 45 knots are possible at Amarillo and
Shamrock respectively while statistical guidance, usually a good
performer in wind scenarios relying on mixing and stout winds aloft,
largely keeps 30 knot sustained winds to the east and north of these
locations. Have thus elected to convert all areas currently in a
High Wind Watch to a Wind Advisory, adding Carson and Armstrong
Counties largely due to collaboration concerns. Strong winds and low
dewpoints will also lead to a fire risk, detailed in the fire
weather section below.

Upper low departs to the east for Saturday, with a quick moving
disturbance in the northwesterly flow aloft translating across by
the evening hours. This should lead to continued northerly winds,
with associated cloud cover keeping temperatures from rising much
beyond average lower 50s values for this time of year. Despite
enough moisture for clouds in the mid levels, near surface layer
looks parched, so have gone with no chance for precipitation during
this period.

Ferguson

FIRE WEATHER...

Strong winds and low relative humidity values will lead to elevated
fire weather conditions today. Expect mixing to bring down strong
winds from an upper jet, leading to sustained 20 foot wind values of
20 to 40 mph, with highest values in the northeastern half of the
Panhandles. Strong mixing will also cause RH values to fall to the
10 to 20 percent range, with lowest values roughly along a Stratford-
Clarendon axis. This will lead to RFTI values of up to 4 east of a
Boise City-Palo Duro Canyon axis. Huge uncertainty with regards the
state of the fuels, with WFAS ERC values of 0 in many locations in
the western two thirds of the Panhandles due to recent precipitation
while TFS values are around 50 across the area. In order to be
consistent with WFOs OUN and LUB, have used WFAS ERC values, which
despite the RFTI values caps resulting risk in the elevated category
across our eastern third. Given the windy and dry conditions and the
contrast between TFS and WFAS ERC values, have elected to issue an
RFD for any fire weather zone with any pixel reaching elevated for
any length of time. Decision not to issue an RFW is also consistent
with latest guidance from the Southern Great Plains Wildfire group,
which suggests any fire activity will primarily result in initial
attack wildfires.

Ferguson

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday

Dry northwesterly flow aloft Sunday and Sunday night and then
transitioning to west northwesterly or zonal Monday. Next closed
upper low over the Great Basin region Monday night digs west and
south across southern California and Baja by Tuesday. Shortwave
ridging takes place across the Panhandles Tuesday and Tuesday
night into Wednesday before the closed upper low ejects north and
east across the southwestern states by the second half of next
week. Increasing chances for precipitation across the forecast
area Thursday into Friday. The medium range models are trending
drier Monday into early Wednesday and also somewhat warmer as
subsidence may prevail the first half of next week. Any
precipitation during the first half of next week appears to be
mostly a rain and snow mix or all rain rather than mostly snow.

Better chances for mainly rain will be during the second half of
next week as the closed upper low ejects out and approaches the
Panhandles from the southwest as it weakens. Cool surface high
retreats east and south Sunday and Sunday night as lee surface
trough develops across eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico.
Warmer Monday before a cold front pushes across the forecast area
by Monday night. Much cooler Tuesday as surface high builds down
into the Panhandles. Quick warmup Wednesday with breezy to windy
conditions ahead of the next cold front which will push into the
Panhandles by Thursday night. Only slightly cooler both Thursday
and Friday.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Hansford...Lipscomb...Ochiltree.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Donley...Gray...
     Hemphill...Hutchinson...Roberts...Sherman...Wheeler.

OK...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Beaver...Texas.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Cimarron.

&&

77/11

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
418 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-152200-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
418 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong winds out of the northwest are expected Today, especially
for the northeastern Panhandles where gusts as high as 65 mph are
possible and a High Wind Warning has been issued. Elevated fire
weather conditions are also expected across the eastern two thirds
of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated fire weather conditions this morning and this afternoon.