Isolated thunderstorms developed during the afternoon hours in a warm and unstable airmass.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
Isolated thunderstorms developed during the afternoon hours in a warm and unstable airmass.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 3:21 PM EST, 1 hour 55 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 421 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Humid conditions will remain over the region through this weekend as a slow moving front approaches from the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the region tonight and Friday, then culminate overnight as surface low pressure tracks northeast along the front. Saturday will have the front cross southeast through the region with decreasing storm activity from north to south. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms will push into west central Ohio this afternoon and early evening. Storms firing in the warm sector have an initial push to be strong enough for thunder much further to the southeast, but there is enough of an inhibition between them and the line that whatever pops along and northwest of the I-71 corridor will not exhibit deep convection necessary for thunderstorms. Storms that push into the northwest will weaken as they move away from the best forcing this evening. Warm air will continue to be pulled into the region on southwest winds and overnight lows will only drop to around 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Storms should remain focused in west central Ohio and nw CWA this evening, then begin to make a more southeastward push overnight, reaching the I-71 corridor towards daybreak. The resulting cloud cover over the region on Friday will inhibit insolation which is a strong driver of the stronger storms in this airmass. Highs may top into the upper 80s in the southeast given enough sunshine, but only reach near 80 in the northwest with cloudy and rainy conditions expected for the bulk of the day. Real threat of active weather occurs overnight as the atmosphere stratifies and a surface low begins to track northeast along the front across the region. Coupled with an energetic shortwave, heavy rain or at a minimum a prolonged steady rainfall will be possible over the region. Wind threat will be possible with any cores that develop but flooding has the higher potential. Lows will be in the upper 60s to near 70. GFS pushes the front through quicker and this would impact the morning rainfall and overnight minimums, but the bulk of models show the front still over the northwest on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... With the shortwave continuing to push through the region early on Saturday, the potential focus for heavy rain with localized flooding continues, with the nose of a 40+ kt LLJ pushing through the region, combined with deep warm clouds on the order of 3.5-4km, and PWs again near 2" early in the day. The frontal boundary will slowly sag south through the area during the day and through Saturday evening, although the progression will continue to be slow, where it will finally settle in central Kentucky by late Sunday. With the boundary lingering just to the south, still expecting scattered showers through the day with some embedded afternoon thunderstorms. Partial clearing and drier conditions push through the area Sunday night, but still lingers in the Ohio Valley into Monday, which would result in some diurnal showers and isolated thunderstorms especially along/east of roughly the I-71 corridor Monday afternoon. While the frontal boundary pushes further SE into the Tennessee valley by Tuesday and into mid week, drier conditions and NW flow dominate the region along the backside of the slowly exiting upper trough. For temperatures, a non-diurnal temperature profile with the slow sagging of the frontal boundary through the region on Saturday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the south, with similar highs near 80 on Sunday and a slow increase to mid and upper 80s for highs through the week and lows in the mid 60s. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... While some isolated showers are possible in the next few hours, the favored area of development will remain east/southeast of the TAF sites. Will keep an upstream eye and amend if any storms develop, but even if they do they should be localized heavy rain in the core of it with a brief downrush of wind - little if any thunder. Cu and any isolate showers will dissipate in the late day. Front approaches from the northwest overnight and will begin to affect KDAY before daybreak, then see cigs drop in -RA/SHRA to MVFR. These lower cigs should reach CMH/LCK after daybreak, and could begin to affect remaining TAF sites at the tail end of the forecast. Added TS at KCVG given daytime heating will be a strong driver of deeper convection, which is not expected until later in the day. .OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...Franks
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington OH 558 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-161000- Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio- Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant- Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke- Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison- Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway- Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown- Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto- 558 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Heavy rain will lead to the potential for localized flooding Friday and Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
418 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0345 PM TSTM WND GST 6 W VANCEBURG 38.59N 83.43W
07/15/2021 M49 MPH LEWIS KY MESONET
&&
CHSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Wilmington OH 557 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 OHZ034-152230- Mercer OH- 557 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MERCER COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM EDT... At 556 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Fort Recovery, moving east at 30 mph. STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE... Winds to 50 mph... Pea size hail... Very heavy rain... Locations impacted include... Celina, Coldwater, St. Henry, Fort Recovery, Wabash, Chickasaw, Montezuma, Carthagena and Maria Stein. Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and small streams. To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely. LAT...LON 4063 8453 4040 8448 4039 8480 4059 8480 TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 267DEG 24KT 4046 8482 Campbell
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Wilmington OH 606 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 OHZ063-064-073-080-152230- Highland OH-Ross OH-Fayette OH-Pickaway OH- 606 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE... SOUTHWESTERN PICKAWAY...NORTHEASTERN HIGHLAND AND NORTHWESTERN ROSS COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT... At 606 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Greenfield, moving east at 30 mph. STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE... Winds to 50 mph... Pea size hail... Very heavy rain... Locations impacted include... Washington Court House, Greenfield, Williamsport, New Holland, Staunton, Good Hope, Frankfort, Clarksburg, South Salem, Bourneville, East Monroe, Lattaville, Austin, State Route 207 at US Route 22, Rock Mills, New Martinsburg and Plano. Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and small streams. To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely. LAT...LON 3933 8352 3952 8351 3959 8312 3927 8312 TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 266DEG 24KT 3941 8340 Campbell
The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 40 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:14 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A few trees were downed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 960589.