Thunderstorms developed during the early morning over Pima County and caused areas of flash flooding. Additional storms developed during the afternoon across Graham County, move southwest, and produced severe wind gusts and flash flooding in the Safford area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
Thunderstorms developed during the early morning over Pima County and caused areas of flash flooding. Additional storms developed during the afternoon across Graham County, move southwest, and produced severe wind gusts and flash flooding in the Safford area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 8:23 AM MST, 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 823 AM MST Thu Jul 15 2021 .SYNOPSIS...An active period of daily scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next 7 days. High temperatures will be below normal into next week. && .UPDATE...A complex of showers and thunderstorms developed early this morning to the west of Tucson which has resulted in some areas of heavy rainfall with radar estimated amounts of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts across portions of the T.O. nation. Just in the last few minutes, we've seen some development across the Tucson Metro. Locally heavy rain is the main concern with any of the thunderstorms this morning. The current expectation is this general complex and activity will continue to shift to the south over the next few hours and tend to weaken during the midday hours. Thereafter, the focus will tend to be across eastern sections of the CWA where more abundant solar insolation will result in renewed surface based instability and new convective development. Sent a quick forecast update this morning to account for current precipitation trends and dropped high temperatures several degrees in locales that are seeing considerable clouds and shower activity in the vicinity. && .DISCUSSION...Flash flooding will once again be the main threat today associated with scattered showers and thunderstorms that develop across the area. A Flash Flood watch remains in effect for the eastern two-thirds of the forecast area until later tonight. 500 mb streamlines from the NAM/GFS indicate that the area will be impacted by a couple of weak disturbances that will help enhance convective activity, especially from Tucson east and south, over the next several days. The monsoon high settles in over the 4-corners this weekend into early next week bringing an increase in easterly flow over the area which will keep an active monsoon going thru much of next week. With an active monsoon pattern in place, high temperatures will remain below normal for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION...Valid through 16/12Z. FEW-SCT clouds at 11k-15k ft MSL and BKN-OVC clouds AOA 20k ft MSL thru 15/18Z, then SCT-BKN clouds at 8k-12k ft MSL til 16/04Z. Slowly diminishing clouds aft 16/04Z. Slight chance of -SHRA/-TSRA thru 15/19Z, then scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA developing and persisting through the evening hours tonight before diminishing. Wind gusts to 45 kts possible near any TSRA along with mountain obscurations. Otherwise, SFC wind generally less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...There will be a good chance of showers and thunderstorms across southeast Arizona the next week. Gusty outflow winds will be the primary concern with the daily storms. Min RH values will be in the 25-35 percent range at the lower elevations, with higher values in the mountains. Outside of some stronger NWLY winds at 15-20 mph in the Gila River valley this afternoon, 20-foot winds will generally be less than 15 mph and follow normal diurnal trends when not influenced by thunderstorms. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through this evening for AZZ503>515. && Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
840 AM MST THU JUL 15 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0830 AM FLASH FLOOD 7 NW TUCSON 32.25N 110.99W
07/15/2021 PIMA AZ FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED A STRANDED DRIVER
IN THE AREA OF FAIRVIEW AVE AND PARIS
PROMENADE.
&&
KJSThe Tucson radar (KEMX), 86 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:45 UTC.
3 flash flood, 2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Two inches of rain in 2 hours north of Three Points caused flooding of roadways west of Picture Rocks. A vehicle was stranded in floodwaters on Tucker Road at the Blanco Wash.
One hour rainfall of 0.5 to 1 on ground saturated from rain the previous day caused flash flooding northeast of Ryan Field and the closure of Snyder Hill Rd west of San Joaquin Rd.
A wind gust to 69 mph was recorded at Safford Airport.
A wind gust of 62 mph was recorded at Safford Airport.
Two to four inches of rain in two hours fell over the higher terrain north of Safford and Pima. Flash flooding caused multiple road washouts of Safford-Bryce and Bryce-Eden Rds.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 975783, 975787, 975785, 975786, 975784.