Winter Storm in Ohio, February 15 to 16, 2021

Name: Winter Storm in Ohio, February 15 to 16, 2021
Start: 2021-02-15T15:00
End: 2021-02-16T09:00
Location: Ohio

February 15 to 16, 2021 · NWS IWX · 8 events in 8 counties and zones

A burst of moderate to heavy snow accumulated to between 6 and 12 inches late in the afternoon on February 15th through the early morning hours of February 16th. Intense snowfall rates and gusty winds led to significant blowing and drifting with many roads becoming impassible.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 8 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 8

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 15, 12:13 PM EST, 2 hours 47 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 15, 12:13 PM EST, 2 hours 47 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1213 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1210 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

Moderate to heavy snow will move in late this afternoon and
continue overnight into Tuesday morning. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2
inches an hour in addition to blowing snow will make travel very
difficult tonight into Tuesday morning. Around 4 to 9 inches of
snow is expected for areas north of highway 24, and 8 to 12 inches
with possible locally higher amounts, is expected along and south
of highway 24, east of interstate 69. Lows will be in the single
digits tonight. Wind chill values will range from zero to 10 below
zero early Tuesday morning. Visit our webpage for the latest
advisories and warnings.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

Minor adjustments to pops into early afternoon to capture
widespread, but light snowfall moving rapidly across the area this
morning. Weak lift will continue across the area with back edge of
this patch of snow coming into our SW areas by 16Z and then
working northeast from there. Small flake size will help limit
additional accumulations to no more than an inch. Radar mosaic
shows a brief break in the snow may occur before the area of
concern, currently moving across Missouri, moves in late this
afternoon and rapidly overspreads the area. For the moment there
are no changes to forecasted totals with the main event tonight,
but we are looking over all the 12Z data as it is coming in and
will have more later today. Travel conditions may start to worsen
near or just after the afternoon commute south of US-24 as the
leading edge of snow moves in.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 505 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

No major changes to the headlines this morning, as the forecast
looks largely on track for our system. Accumulations for the
advisory area range from 4 to 7 inches, and then for the warning
areas, expect around 7-10 inches along/just north of US 24, then
around 8-12 along and south of US 24, east of Interstate 69. I did
lengthen the time of the warnings/advisories to go through Tuesday
morning as roads will still likely be treacherous and light snow may
still be ongoing through the 15z timeframe (east and north mainly).

As forecasted, light to moderate snow overnight brought around an
inch or so of accumulation for most areas, and the light snow will
continue through the late morning and early afternoon. There may be
a lull where there is little to accumulating snow through the
afternoon before the next system arrives late this afternoon/this
evening (lifting S to N). Moderate to heavy snow is expected, with
potential for snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour at times. The greatest
accumulations will occur between 7 pm-1 am EST, then slowly taper
off through Tuesday morning/afternoon.

Models show the mid level trough shifting eastward through the day,
with increasing upper level support over our CWA as we get later
into the afternoon. A strong upper level Jet streak develops over
eastern Upper MI/Ontario/Quebec towards 7 pm ET tonight, just as the
jet streak with the southern stream rounds the base of the trough.
This brings a coupled jet structure right over our CWA and
tremendous upper level support between 7 pm-1 am ET. Subsequently,
the mid level trough is negatively tilted and the surface low
deepens as it lifts northeastward. This puts us in a good spot for
heavy snow (especially central/SE), with moisture transport/lift via
rather impressive isentropic ascent on the 285K sfc through that
critical time period. Above the strong baroclinic zone we also see
negative EPV which could give us some slantwise instability to work
with, which only adds to the confidence in the greater snow totals.

At the 00z-06z timeframe particularly, the forcing is right within
the dendritic growth zone, which will produce decent snow ratios of
15-20:1 (further northwest is best, southeast is a little warmer in
the mid levels where the best lift is). So have slightly higher
amounts than the previous forecast by around an inch or so-but still
within the formerly mentioned ranges.

Otherwise, low temperatures will fall into the single digits tonight
into early Tuesday morning, so wind chills will range from 3 to 10
degrees below zero.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 535 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

Tuesday afternoon into the evening will be mostly dry, with the
exception of some light lake effect near Lake Michigan. Delta theta-
E values are favorable (around -1 to -3 K/km) through the early
evening, but it will depend on the wind direction. Current forecast
is for the winds to be briefly north-northeast then shift to the
east-southeast near the lake toward the evening hours. This would
blow any lingering LES offshore again. However, if winds linger out
of the north-northeast as some models suggest we could see some
light accumulations (up to around 1 inch) in northern LaPorte county
through 1 am EST Tuesday night. Highs on Tuesday will be in the
upper teens. Lows will fall to around zero, with wind chills ranging
from 1 to 10 below zero.

Wednesday-Wednesday evening will be dry with partly to mostly cloudy
skies and highs in the mid to upper teens as high pressure builds in
overhead. This will be our break before the next system arrives late
Wednesday night into Thursday. Lows Wednesday night will fall into
the low to mid teens, with wind chills around zero.

Thursday into Friday we'll see yet another surface low lift from the
Gulf into the Ohio Valley/NE CONUS...depending on which model you go
with. Another deep mid level trough swings into the plains by
Thursday morning, then becomes neutrally to negatively tilted by
Friday morning as it lifts eastward. The NAM/GFS have a much
stronger system, and lift the low into WV/OH by Thu Eve. The
ECMWF/GEM are weaker with the system and move it further east,
keeping the higher QPF out of our CWA. Kept the likely pops for
areas along and south of US 24, east of I 69 (yep, same area as
today/tonight's system) and mid to high chance pops further west
Thursday into Friday morning. It's actually sort of similar to
tonight's system in terms of a coupled upper level jet structure as
well, and the vigorous isentropic ascent. At this point things could
change dramatically as we know, but the models have been persistent
in showing this system developing. Stay tuned for round 3!

Friday afternoon into Saturday will be pretty mild, with mainly lake
effect snow chances on Friday for northwest to west wind favored
locations on Friday (decent delta theta-e's). The surface high and a
building upper level ridge will put an end to any lake effect on
Saturday, with partly to mostly sunny skies expected. High
temperatures both days will be around 20F, with lows in the single
digits and teens.

Models bring in another system for the Sunday/Monday period, but
they differ with respect to timing and intensity (ECMWF slower, GFS
faster). Have kept consensus pops to account for this now, but the
good news for those of you "heat misers" like myself...the
temperatures will WARM UP! And by warm I mean around 35F for a high
temperature (sorry I wish it was 80F). This means we could see a
rain/snow mix with the system (which I currently have coming through
Sunday afternoon into Monday morning).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

Impressive storm with intense 850-800mb frontogenetic forcing and
deep moisture will provide reduction to LIFR later this evening.
North-northeast winds increase as surface low ejects northeast
through Tennessee into Ohio Valley overnight with increased
likihood of blowing snow providing further impediment to runway
conditions/visibility restrictions. Period of most intense
snowfall rates first half of tonight /approx 23-06 UTC/ over
northern Indiana coincident with strongest vertical motion
profiles. Thereafter slow improvement with diminishing snowfall
rates in latter part of forecast period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Tuesday for
     INZ005>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Tuesday for
     INZ003-004.

MI...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ079>081.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ077-078.

OH...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Fisher
SYNOPSIS...Murphy
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...Murphy

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Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 15, 2:54 PM EST, 6 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
254 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-161100-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
254 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021 /154 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021/

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter snowfall reports are appreciated.

LMZ043-046-161100-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
254 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 15, 9:31 AM EST, 5 hours 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
931 AM EST MON FEB 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 AM     SNOW             3 SE BRAILEY            41.53N 83.89W
02/15/2021  M1.3 INCH        FULTON             OH   COCORAHS

&&

CR

Local storm report, Feb 15, 9:32 AM EST, 5 hours 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
932 AM EST MON FEB 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             2 SW FISHERS LAKE       41.97N 85.60W
02/15/2021  M1.3 INCH        ST. JOSEPH         MI   COCORAHS

&&

CR

Local storm report, Feb 15, 9:33 AM EST, 5 hours 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
933 AM EST MON FEB 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 AM     SNOW             LITCHFIELD              42.05N 84.75W
02/15/2021  M1.0 INCH        HILLSDALE          MI   COCORAHS

&&

CR

Local storm report, Feb 15, 9:35 AM EST, 5 hours 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
935 AM EST MON FEB 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             1 W LA CROSSE           41.32N 86.91W
02/15/2021  M2.0 INCH        LA PORTE           IN   COCORAHS

&&

CR

Local storm report, Feb 15, 9:58 AM EST, 5 hours 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
958 AM EST MON FEB 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 AM     SNOW             AKRON                   41.04N 86.02W
02/15/2021  M2.0 INCH        FULTON             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CR

Local storm report, Feb 15, 11:58 AM EST, 3 hours 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1158 AM EST MON FEB 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1154 AM     SNOW             1 N ROLLING HILLS       41.04N 85.27W
02/15/2021  M1.3 INCH        ALLEN              IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

CR

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

8 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.

Winter Storm, Allen

When: February 15, 3:00 PM EST to February 16, 9:00 AM EST
Where: Allen forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 40.772, -84.106 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A six to nine hour period of moderate to heavy snow created difficult travel and travel restrictions with many roads becoming impassible. Snowfall totals ranged between 8 and 12 inches across the county, with 10.8 inches reported 3 miles south-southeast of Lima. Intense snowfall rates and gusty winds created reduced visibilities less than a quarter of a mile at times. Many schools and businesses were closed on February 16th. There were also reports of slide-offs, vehicles getting stuck in deep snow drifts, and accidents across the region.

Winter Storm, Van Wert

When: February 15, 3:00 PM EST to February 16, 9:00 AM EST
Where: Van Wert forecast zone
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 40.855, -84.586 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A six to nine hour period of moderate to heavy snow created difficult travel and travel restrictions with many roads becoming impassible. Snowfall totals ranged between 8 and 12 inches across the county, with 10.0 inches reported in Van Wert. Intense snowfall rates and gusty winds created reduced visibilities less than a quarter of a mile at times. Many schools and businesses were closed on February 16th. There were also reports of slide-offs, vehicles getting stuck in deep snow drifts, and accidents across the region.

Winter Storm, Paulding

When: February 15, 4:00 PM EST to February 16, 9:00 AM EST
Where: Paulding forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 41.117, -84.580 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A six to nine hour period of moderate to heavy snow created difficult travel and travel restrictions with many roads becoming impassible. Snowfall totals ranged between 8 and 12 inches across the county. Intense snowfall rates and gusty winds created reduced visibilities less than a quarter of a mile at times. Many schools and businesses were closed on February 16th. There were also reports of slide-offs, vehicles getting stuck in deep snow drifts, and accidents across the region.

Winter Storm, Putnam

When: February 15, 4:00 PM EST to February 16, 9:00 AM EST
Where: Putnam forecast zone
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 41.022, -84.132 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A six to nine hour period of moderate to heavy snow created difficult travel and travel restrictions with many roads becoming impassible. Snowfall totals ranged between 8 and 12 inches across the county, with 11.2 inches reported 1 mile southwest of Glandorf. Intense snowfall rates and gusty winds created reduced visibilities less than a quarter of a mile at times. Many schools and businesses were closed on February 16th. There were also reports of slide-offs, vehicles getting stuck in deep snow drifts, and accidents across the region.

Winter Storm, Henry

When: February 15, 5:00 PM EST to February 16, 9:00 AM EST
Where: Henry forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 41.334, -84.068 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A six to nine hour period of moderate to heavy snow created difficult travel and travel restrictions with many roads becoming impassible. Snowfall totals ranged between 8 and 12 inches across the county, with 8.0 inches reported 5 miles northwest of Napoleon. Intense snowfall rates and gusty winds created reduced visibilities less than a quarter of a mile at times. Many schools and businesses were closed on February 16th. There were also reports of slide-offs, vehicles getting stuck in deep snow drifts, and accidents across the region.

Winter Storm, Defiance

When: February 15, 5:00 PM EST to February 16, 9:00 AM EST
Where: Defiance forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 41.324, -84.490 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A six to nine hour period of moderate to heavy snow created difficult travel and travel restrictions with many roads becoming impassible. Snowfall totals ranged between 8 and 12 inches across the county, with 10.0 inches reported in Defiance. Intense snowfall rates and gusty winds created reduced visibilities less than a quarter of a mile at times. Many schools and businesses were closed on February 16th. There were also reports of slide-offs, vehicles getting stuck in deep snow drifts, and accidents across the region.

Winter Storm, Fulton

When: February 15, 5:00 PM EST to February 16, 9:00 AM EST
Where: Fulton forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 41.602, -84.130 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A six to nine hour period of moderate to heavy snow created difficult travel and travel restrictions with many roads becoming impassible. Snowfall totals ranged between 7 and 10 inches across the county. Intense snowfall rates and gusty winds created reduced visibilities less than a quarter of a mile at times. Many schools and businesses were closed on February 16th. There were also reports of slide-offs, vehicles getting stuck in deep snow drifts, and accidents across the region.

Winter Storm, Williams

When: February 15, 5:00 PM EST to February 16, 9:00 AM EST
Where: Williams forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 41.560, -84.588 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A six to nine hour period of moderate to heavy snow created difficult travel and travel restrictions with many roads becoming impassible. Snowfall totals ranged between 8 and 12 inches across the county. Intense snowfall rates and gusty winds created reduced visibilities less than a quarter of a mile at times. Many schools and businesses were closed on February 16th. There were also reports of slide-offs, vehicles getting stuck in deep snow drifts, and accidents across the region.

What these are

Winter Storm: A storm that brought snow, sleet or freezing rain at warning levels, usually over several hours or days.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Ohio in 2021 Every state in 2021 This day in weather history Warnings in Ohio, February 2021

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 933468, 933469, 933470, 933471, 933472, 933473, 933474, 933475.