Hail and Damaging Winds in North Dakota, July 8, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
232 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)

Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be scattered
strong to severe storms later today into this evening.

Currently, compact mid level low now over north central Montana
with an associated sfc trough over eastern Montana. A few elevated
showers and storms over southwestern ND, otherwise quiet at the
moment with a few areas of low level CU and mid level sct-bkn
clouds.

Decent low/mid level south-southeasterly flow across the Dakotas
is helping to ramp up boundary layer moisture across western and
central ND, where dewpoint temps have risen steadily up into the
low to mid 60s as of 19Z. Coupled with daytime heating, this has
led to increasing MUCAPE this afternoon up to around 2000 J/KG.
Plenty of 0-6km shear present, with latest SPC mesoanalysis
indicated 40-50kts. Scattered strong to severe storms will develop
after 21Z near the sfc trough, as the aforementioned compact mid
level low moves into northeastern MT. Initial discrete storms
across the west (considering the degree of shear and the forcing
associated with the mid level low) will bring the threat for large
hail to the size of golf balls (if not larger), as well as
damaging winds. A tornado or two also cannot be discounted with
any initial discrete cells.

Mid level low continues southeast into western and central ND
this evening, where we will likely see any discrete storms congeal
into linear segments and/or an MCV as the mid level circulation
moves in aloft. Strong wind will become the main threat as we
progress through the evening hours. Activity eventually diminishes
into scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)

Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

Friday will be another active day across the Northern Plains (and
cooler), as another mid level trough moves through the region.
The overall severe weather threat will be lower, but cannot
discount a few stronger storms across the south where lingering
shear to 40 kts is projected Friday daytime.

Sfc high pressure builds into the region on Saturday, with perhaps
some lingering shower chances across the south.

Upper ridge axis will be aloft over the Northern Plains on Sunday,
resulting in dry weather and much warmer temperatures. Afterwards,
we will see an active quasi-zonal flow pattern Monday and onwards,
which will bring periodic precipitation chances and seasonal
temperatures to our region for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

A better chance of thunderstorms will arrive in western North
Dakota later this afternoon after 21Z, and spread eastward over
the course of the evening. Some of these storms could be strong to
severe with large hail and erratic wind gusts. MVFR to IFR
conditions are possible under any storm. Models also portray an
area of MVFR/IFR cigs developing overnight west in the wake of
showers and storms.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...NH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
208 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046-091915-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-Dunn-
Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-
Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
208 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021 /108 PM MDT Thu Jul 8 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across
western and portions of central North Dakota later this afternoon
and evening. The main hazards will be large hail up to golf ball
size and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance for thunderstorms on Friday. The chance for
severe weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters may be needed Thursday afternoon and evening.

NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051-091915-
Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Kidder-
Stutsman-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
208 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are likely this evening and into tonight.
A few storms may be strong to severe with small hail and gusty
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance for thunderstorms on Friday. The chance for
severe weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NJH