Another Arctic outbreak brought wind chills down into the 40s and 50s below zero. Winds were relatively light; however, air temperatures were frigid.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.
Another Arctic outbreak brought wind chills down into the 40s and 50s below zero. Winds were relatively light; however, air temperatures were frigid.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 31, 5:14 PM CST, 46 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
514 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 214 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021
Temperatures and wind chill headlines remain the primary issues
for the period.
Arctic surface high remains over the region tonight, with
northwest winds starting to drop off a bit as the center of the
high moves further down into the Dakotas. Still, we will have some
pressure gradient over most of our counties, and think that
northwest to west winds will remain in the 5 to 10 kt range.
The light winds along with mostly clear skies overnight should
drop lows into the -20s below with a lot of our cold spots getting
down to -30 or lower. Wind chills will drop into the -40 to -55
range overnight into tomorrow morning, even in our eastern
counties. Thus, expanded the wind chill warning to cover the
entire CWA.
The surface high will remain over the region for most of Saturday,
and with the arctic air mass in place readings will stay well
below zero even with sunshine. An upper trough moving through
Saturday the region will have most of the vorticity well to our
south, so precip will stay out of our area. Northwest flow aloft
sets in for Saturday night, allowing the surface ridge to move
east a bit and warm air advection to start up over eastern ND
late. Temps will be a bit higher than tonight, but winds will also
be higher and wind chills will again be in the dangerous
category.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 214 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021
The first week of the new year will be quiet and cold temperatures
will continue. No impactful events precipitation wise are expected
at this time, but if the mid-week system gets more moisture than the
models allow, it could pose some impacts. Temperature impacts
heading into mid-week through the end of the period include another
chance for dangerous wind chills.
An upper level trough and accompanying surface low will swing
through with little fanfare heading into the beginning of the week.
Only changes we will experience are a re-enforcing cold front and
some chances for snow. Prior to this, WAA under a ridge will "warm"
our temperatures into the teens above zero for Monday. Winds will
shift to northerly on Tuesday morning, but the cold front and
precipitation with it will lag and not reach our area until Tuesday
evening into Wednesday morning. Confidence is low in the moisture
content that will be available to this system, but it appears as
though the northern portion of Minnesota (along the intl border),
has the greatest chance of receiving QPF greater than or equal to
0.1". One aspect of higher confidence is an increase in winds behind
the front, which could lead to some blowing snow impacts across the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. We will have to get
closer to the event to be able to predict the blowing snow aspect
with more finesse, but the signals are there.
Temperatures will crash once again heading into mid-week, once again
raising concerns for dangerous wind chills continuing heading into
the end of the week. Wind chills as low as -45 look to be possible
into the latter part of next week, so remember to bundle up and take
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 512 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021
VFR cigs are expected over the period. Primary aviation impacts
over the next 12 hours will be the intermittent wind direction
shifts. Other than that, expect VFR to continue. There are some
MVFR cigs upstream in NW South Dakota, so will keep an eye on how
that evolves this evening.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Saturday for NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Saturday for MNZ001>005-007-
008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.
Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Saturday for MNZ006-009-017-
024-032.
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...PerrouxHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 309 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-012115- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier- Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks- Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- Western Walsh- 309 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Wind Chills 40 below to 50 below zero at times through tonight, occasionally as low as 55 below in the Devils Lake basin. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Dangerous wind chills through Sunday morning. Otherwise looking ahead to Tuesday a period of light snow and blowing snow is possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
18 cold/wind chill. Local standard time, as filed.
Minimum observed wind-chill during the afternoon and evening was -55 degrees as reported by NDAWN Mesonet.
Minimum observed wind-chill during the afternoon and evening was -54 degrees as reported by NDAWN Mesonet.
Minimum observed wind-chill during the afternoon and evening was -55 degrees as reported by NDAWN Mesonet.
Minimum observed wind-chill during the afternoon and evening was -50 degrees as reported by NDAWN Mesonet.
Minimum observed wind-chill during the afternoon and evening was -51 degrees as reported by NDAWN Mesonet.
Minimum observed wind-chill during the afternoon and evening was -55 degrees as reported by NDAWN Mesonet.
Minimum observed wind-chill during the afternoon and evening was -45 degrees as reported by NDAWN Mesonet.
Minimum observed wind-chill during the afternoon and evening was -59 degrees as reported by NDAWN Mesonet.
Minimum observed wind-chill during the afternoon and evening was -53 degrees as reported by NDAWN Mesonet.
Minimum observed wind-chill during the afternoon and evening was -48 degrees as reported by NDAWN Mesonet.
Minimum observed wind-chill during the afternoon and evening was -54 degrees as reported by NDAWN Mesonet.
Minimum observed wind-chill during the afternoon and evening was -50 degrees as reported by NDAWN Mesonet.
Minimum observed wind-chill during the afternoon and evening was -54 degrees as reported by NDAWN Mesonet.
Minimum observed wind-chill during the afternoon and evening was -52 degrees as reported by NDAWN Mesonet.
Minimum observed wind-chill during the afternoon and evening was -48 degrees as reported by NDAWN Mesonet.
Minimum observed wind-chill during the afternoon and evening was -47 degrees as reported by NDAWN Mesonet.
Minimum observed wind-chill during the afternoon and evening was -43 degrees as reported by NDAWN Mesonet.
Minimum observed wind-chill during the afternoon and evening was -44 degrees as reported by NDAWN Mesonet.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, December 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 999977, 999979, 999980, 999981, 999982, 999983, 999984, 999985, 999986, 999987, 999988, 999989, 999990, 999991, 999992, 999993, 999994, 999995.