Drought in North Dakota, April 1 to 30, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021

All is quiet for the overnight. No deviations from the inherited
forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 946 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021

No changes for this update. A very quiet but cool night is
expected.

UPDATE Issued at 643 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021

No significant changes are needed for this update. A field of
cumulus clouds from northeast Montana through southwest North Dakota
is already showing signs of diurnal dissipation. Will need to keep
an eye on temperatures tonight with clear skies and light winds to
start.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021

Fire weather concerns highlight the main short term forecast
challenge. We have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch Thursday to a
Red Flag Warning across all of western and central North Dakota.
Please see the fire weather discussion below for specific details.

A broad upper level ridge axis was centered over the Pacific
Northwest this afternoon and will continue to nudge closer to the
Northern Plains through the day as it slowly starts to deamplify.
Cool temperatures will remain the theme this afternoon, being on
the eastern periphery of said ridge with highs in the lower 30s
across the Turtle Mountains to the upper 40s across the southwest.
The ridge axis will continue to move towards the region tonight so
the sky will remain mostly clear and we will dip into the upper
teens to mid 20s for lows.

As the ridge axis move across the state Thursday, winds will turn
southerly, becoming breezy by the late morning and early
afternoon as a warm front crosses the state and the pressure
gradient tightens. The strongest winds will generally be across
eastern and southern portions of the forecast area where sustained
values could reach up to 30 mph and gusts to 40 mph. Expect a
much warmer day with afternoon highs reaching into lower 60s to
lower 70s. The coolest temperatures will be across the Turtle
Mountains and the warmest will be over the southwest.

Thursday night, the ridge will continue to deamplify as a weak and
dry shortwave moves north of the International Border, leading to
a more zonal flow. Thursday night lows will generally be in the
low to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021

Zonal flow aloft continues across the Northern Plains through the
end of the work week and the upcoming weekend. This pattern will
support dry weather and a continuing warming trend. Highs in the
60s and 70s are currently forecast for Friday and Saturday.
However, the warmest days of the period look to be Sunday and
Monday where we are forecasting temperatures into the lower 80s
across much of the far south and portions of the west. A few
record highs look possible on these two days.

Next best chance for precipitation will be next week when an
active southwesterly flow pattern develops. There remains a wide
variety of possible solutions still, and WPC cluster analysis
still shows roughly a 50/50 chance for much needed moisture. For
now we will only carry slight chance to chance PoPs in the gridded
forecast Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021

VFR conditions with mostly clear skies through the 06Z TAF period.
Light southerly winds tonight will increase in strength during
the late morning hours, with sustained winds around 20 kts and
gusts around 30 kts across all terminals for Thursday afternoon.
As surface winds lessen late Thursday evening, LLWS may develop
across the north-central near KMOT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across all of
western and central North Dakota late Thursday morning through the
evening. A Red Flag Warning has been issued. Latest guidance
suggests southerly winds sustained as high as 30 mph with gusts to
40 mph (strongest east of Highway 83) overlapping afternoon
humidity values ranging from 10 to 20 percent (lowest in western
North Dakota). Typically, it is difficult to get relative humidity
values this low in southerly flow, but looking at observations in
the Central and Southern Plains shows that there will be very
little moisture to advect into our region. Dewpoints in the
Nebraska and Kansas area this afternoon were only in the single
digits and teens. The sky will be mostly sunny on Thursday with
only a few clouds associated with a warm front moving across the
state. High temperatures will reach around 60 to the lower 70s
across most of the area.

Beyond Thursday, any day with wind will raise fire weather
concerns until we get widespread and plentiful moisture.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10 PM
CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...Gale
FIRE WEATHER...Hollan/ZH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1246 AM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-020600-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
1246 AM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 /1146 PM MDT Wed Mar 31 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A Red Flag Warning is in effect late Thursday morning through
Thursday evening. See www.weather.gov/bis for additional
information.

Near critical fire weather conditions will be possible Friday
through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Heinert